After a hat-trick of winners for our props column this week, Paul Higham is banking on Atletico Madrid’s ill discipline as he goes for four in a row on Saturday.
“Atletico will be fired-up knowing they badly need to win, they’ve got the third-most bookings in Spain and the last time this ref took charge of them he dished out six yellows to Simeone’s side.”
Well, well, well – our humble little football column bagged the rare hat-trick of winners with success on Friday night, but as a wise man once said, “We go again” so we’re back chasing the Holy Grail of the four-timer in Saturday’s feast of football.
Now, picking out football winners every day may seem a doddle but it takes some skill, a lot of research and yes, OK, a little slice of luck here and there. You can have too much choice and too much information sometimes and weekends are often that way.
Fear not though as just a quick scan of the fixtures and a rumble through the referee appointments brings us to our big hope for Saturday and it comes from La Liga in Spain as champions Atletico Madrid host Osasuna in the 5.30pm kick-off.
Three draws from four has seen Atletico slip back down to fourth in the table and five points behind leaders Real Sociedad, albeit with a game in hand, but this wobble has made some feel like the title could be slipping away from them.
Diego Simeone’s side have been very un-Simeone-like when scoring and conceding by the bucketload recently with two 2-2 draws and a 3-3 in their last four games indicative of how they’ve been playing of late.
Osasuna sit in seventh with no win in four, but when you consider the last three games have all been against the current top three in the table (Real Sociedad, Real Madrid and Sevilla) then it’s not too bad.
Playing their fourth game in a row against the top four in the table is some tough run for Osasuna, who must have really upset the fixture computer somehow to be given such a brutal stretch.
They are battled hardened though and should give Atleti a good fight, which is exactly what we want as we dip into the cards markets with Simeone’s men picking up 39 yellows and two reds in La Liga this season – only two teams have been booked more.
There’s also been an incredible six red cards shown in Atletico’s last 12 games but while we perhaps may see another that’s not our focus for Saturday’s best bet.
It’s just the cards we’re interested in and with their recent results and the pressure of defending a title, Atletico can be expected to come out all guns blazing – and that bodes well for a fixture that’s had 13 cards shown in the last three.
Referee Jose Sanchez is in the mood after dishing out seven cards in his last club game in charge and his card distribution in La Liga in the last few games reads 6, 2, 6, 8, 5, 5, 10!
That 10 rather perfectly came the last time he took charge of an Atletico Madrid game when he served up six yellows to Simeone’s side – hopefully he’s got their number and he can again flourish the notebook with style against the Spanish champions.
All the ingredients add up to at least four Atleti bookings at a decent price.
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
