Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League, Championship and more

Fulham 1.538/15 v Blackburn 7.613/2, the Draw 4.47/2
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

It’s the leaders hosting the team in fourth at Craven Cottage to get Saturday’s Championship action underway.

Mark O’Haire says: “Blackburn have endured a difficult recent run against Fulham with Rovers pocketing just one win in their last seven meetings with the Cottagers (W1-D1-L5) – that includes a 7-0 shellacking by the Whites in the reverse encounter at Ewood Park back in November. The Whites boast a W4-D2-L1 in record in recent head-to-head duels at Craven Cottage.

“Fulham 1.55 have claimed eight wins from 10 Championship outings since Christmas (W8-D1-L1), plundering an eye-watering 31 goals during that impressive sequence.

“Marco Silva’s men have proven dominant against the league’s lesser lights, yet the Whites haven’t been quite so consistent against top-half rivals, boasting only two home wins (W2-D2-L2).”

Mark’s bet: Back Fulham to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.02

Leicester 1.855/6 v Leeds 4.3100/30, the Draw 4.216/5
12:30
BT Sport 1

A new era begins as Jesse Marsch takes charge of Leeds for the first time with a tricky trip to Leicester.

Paul Higham says: “Marsch may well be able to tighten his side up, but making such a big change to Leeds’ style that was drilled into the players by Bielsa will take some doing – and it won’t be immediate.

“So Leicester are big 1.83 favourites with Leeds 4.4 outsiders even though they’re unbeaten in five away games against the Foxes. The draw is priced at 4.3.

“Leeds should at least be able to stop the run of conceding three goals every game you’d fancy, but they could be vulnerable at the start as they get to grips with their new manager.

“Leicester could then benefit with a fast start and the 3.1 on them winning in the half-time/full-time market certainly appeals.”

Paul’s bet: Back Leicester/Leicester in HT/FT @ 3.1

Bayern Munich 1.422/5 v Bayer Leverkusen 7.26/1, the Draw 5.95/1
14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

The Bundesliga champions are on course to retain the title but they are not as defensively sounds as they were in previous seasons.

Kevin Hatchard says: “Incredibly, they have won all of their matches against top-half sides this term, and if you look at their games against the big hitters you can see how much they shine in the spotlight. They have beaten Leverkusen 5-1, Dortmund have been edged out 3-2 at they overcame RB Leipzig 4-1 and 3-2.

“Leverkusen won 5-2 at Borussia Dortmund recently, and they have only lost at Mainz in 2022. They have a genuine chance of winning the Europa League, and are on track to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Even without injured talisman Patrik Schick, they still swept aside Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 last weekend.

“I’m tempted to go for Bayern to win and both teams to score here on the Sportsbook at 2.1, but I’m actually going to plump for a couple of bigger prices. Bayer to score over 1.5 goals is priced at 2.6 on the Sportsbook, and they have found the net twice or more in 12 of their last 15 competitive matches. Bayern have given up two goals or more in six of their last 15 top-flight outings.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Leverkusen to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.6

Burnley 7.613/2 v Chelsea 1.558/15, the Draw 4.3100/30
15:00

Chelsea are up for sale but are there any good prices for their trip to east Lancashire?

Kevin Hatchard says: “Chelsea fell just short in the League Cup final against Liverpool, as the decision to sub in reserve keeper Kepa for the penalty shootout backfired, with the Basque custodian slamming his spot-kick over the bar at Wembley.

“There were fears they would tumble out of the FA Cup just days later, but they recovered from 1-0 and 2-1 down against Championship side Luton Town to progress to the quarter-finals. Goals for misfiring strikers Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku could be important confidence boosts for players who have been well below their best.

“Chelsea’s title hopes appear long gone, with Manchester City and Liverpool having that particular party without them, but they are well placed to make sure of Champions League qualification for next season. They are five points clear of fifth-placed West Ham with two games in hand, although Arsenal are lurking dangerously in the background.

“CFC’s form is decent – they are chasing a third straight league win, but it is worth noting that in the top flight they have won just two of their last six away games.“

Kevin’s bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.84

Liverpool 1.331/3 v West Ham 10.519/2, the Draw 6.25/1
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Liverpool are 4.1 to win the Premier League but they can cut Man City’s lead to three points by beating West Ham at Anfield.

Mark O’Haire says: “Liverpool suffered a 3-2 defeat in the reverse match at the London Stadium back in November – the Reds’ only reverse in 11 recent matches with West Ham (W8-D2-L1). The Merseysiders have also proven exceptionally strong in Anfield encounters with the Hammers, registering a W35-D12-L1 return over the past 48 league match-ups here.

“Liverpool 1.331/3 have won their last six Premier League games by an aggregate 18-2. As hosts, the Merseysiders are unbeaten in 17 league outings (W13-D4-L0), winning the last eight by an aggregate 26-2. The Reds are relatively injury-free but could be fatigued following a taxing week and may have one eye on Tuesday’s Champions League tie.

“West Ham 10.5019/2 haven’t appeared the same free-wheeling side as earlier in the season with the Irons looking laboured in the final-third, generating just 4.80 Expected Goals (xG) across their past five outings. And the Hammers have tended to fall short on the road to elite opposition – the visitors have W0-D1-L4 at top-half tams, averaging only 0.38 xG.”

Mark’s bet: Back Liverpool, Under 4.5 Goals and Diogo Jota to have 1 Or More Shots On Target @ 1.90

Nice 4.216/5 v PSG 1.875/6, the Draw 4.03/1
20:00
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Our French football expert reckons third-placed Nice will give Mauricio Pochettino’s men a tough night on Saturday.

James Eastham says: “There are multiple reasons to side with Nice when they host PSG at the Allianz Riviera on Saturday night. First, Nice have recent history of avoiding defeat at home to PSG: the sides played out a 0-0 draw at the same venue in the French Cup Last 16 before Nice went on to win 6-5 on penalties on January 31.

“Second, Nice will be buzzing after taking their place in the French Cup final thanks to their 2-0 home win over amateurs Versailles in the semi-finals on Tuesday this week.

“Third, Kylian Mbappe misses this game through suspension. It almost doesn’t need stating, but PSG are much weaker without not only his goals but increasingly his support play: Mbappe’s currently joint top of Ligue 1’s assists charts, and no other attacker in the Ligue 1 leaders’ squad comes close to matching his ability to stretch opposition defences.”

James’ bet: Lay PSG @ 1.95

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad: Leaders to stay unbeaten at home

Real Madrid 1.674/6 v Real Sociedad 5.85/1, the Draw 4.216/5
20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

The Bernabeu has been a fortress for the La Liga leaders this season and our previewer expects them to take another three points.

Tom Victor says: “Real Madrid’s unbeaten home run stayed intact with a convincing victory over Alavés last month, and Infogol’s model backs them to extend it to 14 games by taking the points against a Real Sociedad side whose own top four homes could suffer a blow with defeat.

“La Real haven’t beaten Los Blancos in the league since May 2019, and the run is expected to continue at the Bernabéu this weekend.”

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1