Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

This week’s Saturday cheat sheet comes with a bonus Friday night match preview…

Brentford 2.26/5 v Watford 3.7511/4, the Draw 3.55/2
20:00
Sky Sports Premier League

The Bees are missing their star striker as the Hornets come to town on Friday. For whom will there be a sting in the tale?

Andy Schooler says: “The 17th-placed Hornets, 3.75 for victory, have managed to score 20 goals already this season despite failing to find the net in seven of their 15 matches. In recent away games, they’ve scored two at Leicester, five at Everton and three at Norwich.

“But Claudio Ranieri’s men have also conceded 29 – only Norwich and Newcastle have let in more – while the shots-conceded stats show they have the fourth-worst record, giving up more than 15 per game. There are the only Premier League team yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

“Since putting the final nail in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s coffin with a 4-1 victory over Manchetser United, Watford have lost three in a row, albeit those games came against Leicester, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Notably they managed to score in all three and the both-teams-to-score option does look a fairly sensible play at 1.83.”

Andy’s bet: 1.5pts both teams to score @ 1.83

Manchester City 1.192/11 v Wolves 22.021/1, the Draw 8.415/2
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Manchester City are the [1.66] favourites to win the Premier League ahead of their match at home to Wolves on Saturday lunch-time.

Steve Rawlings says: “It’s very hard to see past the home side in the outright market but 1.19 is just too short so I’ve weighed up a couple of alternatives.

“City to win and Both Teams to Score has landed in each of their last three Premier League matches. Manuel Lanzino scored a quite brilliant consolation goal for West Ham with virtually the last kick of the game two weeks ago and Ollie Watkins pulled one back for Aston Villa after City had led by two at the break three days later. City won both games 2-1 and Hernandez grabbed a second half consolation for Watford in a 3-1 home defeat last Saturday.

“At odds of around 2/1 that’s been a lovely way to get the champions onside of late, but I suspect the run may come to an end on Saturday.”

Steve’s bet: 2 pts Man City/Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.10

Huddersfield 2.829/5 v Coventry 2.89/5, the Draw 3.185/40
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

The Terriers host the Sky Blues in West Yorkshire on Saturday lunchtime with both sides targetting promotion from the Championship this season.

Mark O’Haire says: “Huddersfield have performed above pre-season expectations to be perched inside the top-half as we approach the hectic Christmas period. However, inconsistency has blighted the Terriers’ campaign; Town have W1-D2-L3 coming into this clash with Carlos Corberan’s men sitting third-bottom when viewing Expected Points (xP) returns over the past eight outings.

“Coventry have arguably the Championship’s surprise package with Mark Robins’ men just a point outside of the play-off places heading into the weekend. The Sky Blues have built their impressive campaign on strong home form with City tabling only two triumphs on their travels (W2-D4-L4), whilst scoring only eight (29%) of their overall 28 goals away.”

Mark’s bet: Back Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at 1.91

Fiorentina v Salernitana
14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Fiorentina are a force in Serie A at home but they still have weakness at the back which their opponents can exploit.

Chloe Beresford says: “Fiorentina’s win at the weekend means they have taken just 16 games to record as many victories (9) as they did in the whole of last season. Key to that has been their strong home form with La Viola winning each of their last four matches at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, where all seven games played in 2021/22 so far have seen over 2.5 goals.

“Vincenzo Italiano’s men have scored at least four goals in each of their last four matches, but they have conceded in each of them too, so even with Salernitana – who are winless in their last six league games – struggling at the bottom of the table, they are likely to be able to grab a goal themselves.”

Chloe’s bet: Back Fiorentina to beat Salernitana and both teams to score @ 2.88

Bayern Munich v Mainz
14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern Munich crushed Barcelona 3-0 in midweek, and won a chaotic Klassiker 3-2 in Dortmund last weekend, but the champions may not have it all their own way against Mainz.

Kevin Hatchard says: “Bayern lost to Mainz at the MEWA Arena last season, and there’s every chance that they’ll have to work hard to beat Bo Svensson’s side here. The Dane has turned a team that was destined for relegation into a side that is now pushing for European qualification. If you look at Expected Points (effectively the results teams should have got in games based on their underlying numbers), Mainz should be second in the table, which is truly remarkable. Last weekend, they hammered Champions League participants Wolfsburg 3-0.

“I still think Bayern will prove too strong for Mainz here, but I think the visitors will score. German U21 international forward Jonathan Burkardt is in the form of his life, and Karim Onisiwo is playing well beside him. Both players are quick, so expect them to get in behind Bayern’s high defensive line, and Burkardt scored home and away against Bayern last season.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Bayern to win v Mainz and Both Teams To Score at 2.1

Norwich 8.07/1 v Man Utd 1.4840/85, the Draw 5.04/1
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

New United manager Ralg Rangnick is in charge for the second time as the Red Devils go to Norwich for the Saturday tea-time match in the Premier League.

Paul Robinson says: “Goals are favoured by the Betfair traders at Carrow Road, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at around the 1.78 mark. Under 2.5 is 2.24.

“Interestingly, since Solskjaer left the club, only one of United’s five matches have ended with three goals or more. In Rangnick’s two games, they have only found the net once per outing.

“That being said, I do like Overs here. Norwich have conceded 31 goals so far this term – more than any other club. They let Spurs score three against them last weekend, and they won’t have their first choice defence available on Saturday.

“My Bet Builder for this game is a fourfold that comes in at a shade over 10/1. The first three picks are Man United to Win, Over 2.5 Goals and Marcus Rashford to Score. The fourth is Fred to have a Shot on Target.”

Paul’s bet: Back Man United -1 @ 2.32

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla
20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sevilla are second in La Liga and look a good bet to keep the pressure on leaders Real Madrid with a win in Bilbao.

Tom Victor says: “Sevilla have the league’s lowest away xGA average, and this could be important in Bilbao against hosts who are similarly stingy at the back.

“Julep Lopetegui’s team sit in a very precarious second spot, with the teams below them breathing down their necks, but Infogol backs them to pull out a result after a make-or-break Champions League group stage closer on Wednesday night.”

Tom’s bet: Back the 0-2 @ 16.015/1