Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions in a busy week at both ends…
“Despite a surprise midweek win in Madrid, Levante remain some 10 points from safety with 14 games left.”
Rayo to recover from poor start to 2022
Elche v Rayo Vallecano
Friday, 20:00
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Last week’s defeat to Osasuna will worry Rayo boss Andoni Iraola, not least because it’s now three games without a goal for his team, but Infogol backs them to fix that at Elche on Friday night. The hosts are six points clear of the drop after some healthy recent form, but manager Francisco will remain concerned by a home average of 1.12 xGF which is one of the worst in the league.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.6011/2 or 1-2 @ 13.0012/1
Granada to suffer fifth straight defeat
Granada v Villarreal
Saturday, 13:00
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After losing their last four with a 2.26 xGA average, Granada may well be terrified of the prospect of facing a Villarreal side who have been climbing their way up the table. If Unai Emery’s side are not distracted by the impending Champions League last-16 clash with Juventus, they ought to have more than enough to take all three points at Nuevo Los Cármenes.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Atléti to prepare for European return with victory
Osasuna v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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After a surprise midweek defeat at home to bottom-of-the-table Levante, victory on Saturday now seems essential as Atlético prepare for their Champions League meeting with Manchester United. Opponents Osasuna are three unbeaten in the league without conceding a single goal, but Infogol’s model expects that to change when the champions come to town.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1
Getafe to pull away from danger
Cádiz v Getafe
Saturday, 17:30
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Despite last weekend’s late heartbreak at Wanda Metropolitano, Getafe showed enough in defeat to leave us believing they can get the better of fellow strugglers Cádiz. Sergio hasn’t made the worst managerial start at Nuevo Mirandilla, but Infogol backs the visitors to win this one and move nine points clear of Cádiz in the battle against the drop.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1
Real Madrid to recover from European setback
Real Madrid v Alavés
Saturday, 20:00
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Real Madrid were second-best in their midweek Champions League defeat, but Carlo Ancelotti’s side can bounce straight back in a game where they are heavy favourites. The league leaders are averaging a phenomenal 2.45 xGF on home soil, while Alavés’ 2.09 xGA average away from home is one of La Liga’s worst, so anything other than a home win would be a significant shock.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.807/1
Sevilla to keep unbeaten run going
Espanyol v Sevilla
Sunday, 13:00
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Despite the short turnaround after their Europa League clash with Dinamo Zagreb, Sevilla are still expected to get the job done at RCDE Stadium on Sunday. The hosts will have been left frustrated by Luuk de Jong’s late equaliser in last week’s Catalan derby, and the prospect of Julen Lopetegui’s side attempting to build on the best away xGA record in the division will be a daunting one.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2
Barcelona to remain in pole position for top four finish
Valencia v Barcelona
Sunday, 15:15
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After prolonging their unbeaten league start to the year last weekend, Barça should feel confident against a Valencia side averaging 2.19 xGA per game in a winless 2022. Xavi’s side came from behind to win the reverse fixture when Ronald Koeman was still in the dugout, and Infogol’s model gives them a 62% chance of repeating their win at the Mestalla from May 2021.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Betis to hold firm in third
Real Betis v Mallorca
Sunday, 17:30
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High-flying Betis will be a little worried by Mallorca’s back-to-back victories in the league, but the team from the Balearics aren’t among La Liga’s best travellers. Luis García’s visitors are averaging just 1.05 xGF on the road, winning just two of 11 games, and it will be tough for them to take anything against opponents well on track to exceed the 61 points they earned last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Athletic to eke out derby win
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 20:00
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Athletic left it late to claim a point at Anoeta the last time they met Real Sociedad, but Infogol’s model backs them to take all three this time around. The hosts’ numbers at San Mamés have been more impressive than their results might suggest, with only Atlético Madrid posting a stingier xGA return at home, and if they can replicate that in the derby then three points ought to be going the way of Marcelino’s men.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1
Celta to make it five unbeaten
Celta Vigo v Levante
Monday, 20:00
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Despite a surprise midweek win in Madrid, Levante remain some 10 points from safety with 14 games left. Alessio Lisci’s side have finally picked up their first road win of the season, but are still conceding more than twice per away game on average, and Infogol’s model doesn’t see that changing against a Celta side with eight points from their last four outings.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.208/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
