Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as Real Madrid and Barcelona face off in the capital…
“Barcelona are in a much healthier position than the last time they took on Real Madrid, but Xavi’s side may feel grateful they can afford to lose the Clásico without it terminally impacting their hopes of a top four finish.”
Athletic to shut out Getafe
Athletic Bilbao v Getafe
Friday, 20:00
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Three straight home victories have kept Athletic in the top half of the table, even as their European hopes subside amid a string of road defeats, and they should have enough against a Getafe side still chasing their first away win of the campaign. The reverse fixture ended goalless back in December, and Infogol’s model backs Marcelino’s men to shut out opponents averaging a league-worst 0.88 xGF per game away from home.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2
Alavés to chase down beleaguered Granada
Alavés v Granada
Saturday, 13:00
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Time ran out for Granada boss Robert Moreno earlier this month, and the visitors will hope a change in the dugout can help them in a crucial game at Mendizorrotza. A home victory would see these two sides end the weekend level on points, and the visitors’ season-long average of 1.92 xGA helps explain why the expected defeat on the road would leave them in serious relegation trouble.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Valencia to hit 40-point mark
Elche v Valencia
Saturday, 15:15
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After winning in Granada last weekend, Elche can move one step closer to safety by overcoming Valencia at Martínez Valero. It’s unlikely to be straightforward, though, with Pepe Bordalás’ visitors coming off successive away clean sheets – with a little good fortune along the way – and aiming to complete a double over a team who they downed at the Mestalla thanks to a late goal from the now-departed Cristiano Piccini.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Osasuna to deal Levante another blow
Osasuna v Levante
Saturday, 17:30
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Levante’s 1.94 xGA average continues to keep them in trouble, and they’ll have to pull off a surprise if their trip to El Sadar is to spark a late-season recovery. The home side were soundly beaten at Camp Nou on Sunday, but Jagoba Arrasate’s Osasuna have been better at home than their numbers suggest and will want to deliver more excitement than in the drab 0-0 in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1
Atlético to down near-neighbours Rayo
Rayo Vallecano v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
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Rayo stopped the rot last weekend with a good point against high-flying Sevilla, but champions Atléti won’t roll over for Andoni Iraola’s side. A home average of 1.09 xGA looks like being enough to guarantee a second straight La Liga season for the hosts, but their weekend visitors have found some form domestically and Infogol can see Diego Simeone’s men keeping their winning run alive.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 10.009/1
Espanyol to pip Mallorca
Espanyol v Mallorca
Sunday, 13:00
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A lot of time has passed since Mallorca’s last visit to RCDE Stadium, with both teams winning promotion in the 18 months since, and the result on Sunday could go some way to determining which side will finish higher this term. Anything other than an away victory would leave Espanyol in pole position, and Infogol’s model backs them to take advantage of some steady home form to get what they need.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Villarreal to stay in European contention
Cádiz v Villarreal
Sunday, 15:15
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Villarreal’s top-four hopes have been damaged by a failure to turn performances into results on the road, with Unai Emery’s men winning just 3 of 13 games, but a trip to Cádiz can fix that. The hosts have fewer home wins than any other La Liga side this season, with a 1.64 xGA average playing a part, and Infogol expects the visitors to be more comfortable after relying on a late leveller in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Celta to deal Betis’ top-four hopes another blow
Celta Vigo v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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Borja Iglesias’ winner on Sunday kept Betis in top-four contention, but anything other than a win at Balaídos this weekend could see their grip on Champions League qualification loosen. Manuel Pellegrini’s team did the double over these opponents last season, but were beaten by them at Benito Villamarín earlier this term and will need to call on all of there reserves to avoid defeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Sevilla to hold firm in second
Sevilla v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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Julen Lopetegui’s hosts will feel Barcelona breathing down their neck after more dropped points last weekend, but Infogol’s model backs them to return to winning ways against La Real. The visitors are averaging 1.97 xGA across their last three on the road, and a failure to tighten up could cost them considering Sevilla’s own stinginess at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán both domestically and in Europe.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Clásico win to keep Real Madrid in control
Real Madrid v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona are in a much healthier position than the last time they took on Real Madrid, but Xavi’s side may feel grateful they can afford to lose the Clásico without it terminally impacting their hopes of a top four finish. Few come close to the visitors’ 1.92 xGF average away from home, but Real Madrid have yet to lose a league game at the Bernabéu this term and are still the favourites based on Infogol’s model
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
