Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the relegation fight could get blown open…
“Last week’s surprise win over Atlético Madrid pulled Mallorca out of the bottom three, and they can take a huge leap towards safety by winning at Martínez Valero.”
Betis to see top four hopes fade
Real Sociedad v Real Betis
Friday, 20:00
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Friday’s game at Anoeta could be huge for European qualification, with the visitors desperate for a win to stay in top four contention and the hosts able to leapfrog them into fifth with a win. Infogol’s xG table has La Real above their opponents, rather than two points behind, and they’re expected to extend their winning run to three games on the bounce.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Mallorca to drag Elche into danger
Elche v Mallorca
Saturday, 13:00
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Last week’s surprise win over Atlético Madrid pulled Mallorca out of the bottom three, and they can take a huge leap towards safety by winning at Martínez Valero. Elche are averaging just 1.16 xGF at home, and are in danger of letting their opponents drag them right back into the relegation mix by handing them a fourth straight league defeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 13.0012/1
Alavés to continue slide
Alavés v Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, 15:15
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Alavés are onto their third manager of the season, and will hope Julio Velázquez can have better luck than predecessor José Luis Mendilibar and carry them away from danger. A home meeting with Rayo is certainly winnable, given the opposition’s 1.74 xGA average, but Infogol’s model backs Andoni Iraola’s men to get what would be just their second road win of the campaign.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 12.0011/1
Valencia to prolong unbeaten run
Valencia v Osasuna
Saturday, 17:30
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Valencia are unbeaten in six since their February loss to Barcelona, and Infogol expects them to make that seven as they welcome Osasuna to the Mestalla. Pepe Bordalás’ side have averaged just 0.80 xGA across those six games, keeping four clean sheets, and they can feel confident against opponents who are coming off three successive defeats away from home.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.0010/1
Villarreal to use European momentum at Getafe
Getafe v Villarreal
Saturday, 20:00
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Villarreal shout be on a high after eliminating Bayern Munich from the Champions League in midweek, and this could help see them through a tricky test at Getafe. The hosts have been stingy at home under Quique Sánchez Flores, averaging 0.70 xGA across their last three at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, but Infogol’s model backs the visitors to prevail in a low-scoring game.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1
Levante to keep Granada in trouble
Granada v Levante
Sunday, 13:00
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Granada are just a point above the drop zone after last week’s loss at Sevilla, and the 1.93 xGA they have averaged across their last five games isn’t the healthiest. Opponents Levante are one of the few teams below them, and defeat for Alessio Lisci’s team would surely end their La Liga stay, but Infogol’s model backs the visitors to show there’s life in their survival bid yet.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 12.0011/1
Atléti to rebound after European exit
Atlético Madrid v Espanyol
Sunday, 15:15
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Atlético Madrid ran Manchester City close in Europe but ultimately came up short after drawing a blank on Wednesday night. They’ll want an instant response to ensure they’re back in the Champions League next term, and Infogol believes this should be forthcoming against an Espanyol side whose 0.94 xGF away from home makes them a very welcoming opponent on paper.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 11.0010/1
Athletic to win mid-table clash
Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 17:30
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While Athletic and Celta are both in the mid-table mix, the hosts are in a far healthier spot and can move even further clear of Eduardo Coudet’s men on Sunday. Athletic have averaged an impressive 0.83 xGA at San Mamés, albeit conceding a few more actual goals than those numbers suggest they should have done, and Infogol’s model backs them to pick up a ninth home win of the season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.008/1
Sevilla’s unbeaten home run to end
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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Sevilla hold the only remaining unbeaten record in La Liga, with 11 wins and five draws, but Infogol backs them to come unstuck against a Real Madrid team edging closer to the league title. The visitors are averaging a huge 1.95 xGF away from home, and an away victory for Julen Lopetegui’s former club could leave the manager with little margin for error in the top four chase.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1 or 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Barcelona to crush Cádiz
Barcelona v Cádiz
Monday, 20:00
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Barcelona’s 0.84 xGA home average is the best in La Liga, while their form at the other end of the pitch isn’t too shabby either. The reverse fixture may have ended goalless, with Frenkie de Jong sent off for Barça, but that was during the Ronald Koeman days and it’s hard to see Cádiz taking anything from a team who have been much-improved since the mid-season arrival of Xavi.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.807/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
