La Liga xG Tips: Cádiz and Alavés struggles to continue in Gameweek 20

“Athletic remain tough to break down on the road, with just one defeat from 10 outings, and an Alavés side with an unconvincing home record aren’t expected to change that.”

Levante in contention to sneak a win

Levante v Mallorca
Saturday, 13:00
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If Levante want to kickstart their season, they won’t get too many opportunities than a home meeting with a Mallorca side averaging just 0.93 xGF on the road. The question mark surrounds how quickly they are able to rebound from a heavy defeat at Villarreal, but Infogol’s model gives Alessio Lisci’s side an edge in a game they will really feel they need to win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1 or 1-1 @ 7.006/1

Real Sociedad to end winless run

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 15:15
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Celta’s surprise win at Real Betis will give them confidence for their trip to Anoeta, but it may be one game too far after a run of seven points from three games. Two second-half goals settled the reverse fixture in La Real’s favour, and a home average of 1.19 xGA will make the hosts feel they can kick on after stopping their losing run with a point against Alavés last time out.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

Barça to build on important away win

Granada v Barcelona
Saturday, 17:30
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Last week’s narrow win at Mallorca helped Barcelona bring their away points closer to where the underlying numbers put them, with 1.74 xGF perhaps warranting more than two wins from nine. They’ll hope for more of the same in Granada, though Robert Moreno’s side came minutes away from a win at Camp Nou back in September, and Infogol’s model can see Xavi’s side taking the points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1

Real Madrid to bounce back after slow start to 2022

Real Madrid v Valencia
Saturday, 20:00
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Real Madrid looked flat in their defeat at Getafe last time out, and Carlo Ancelotti will hope it was only a blip. A return to the Bernabéu can help Los Blancos set things back on course, with Madrid still unbeaten in front of their own fans in the league, and a return of 2.05 xGF at home bodes well as the league leaders attempt to preserve their advantage over the chasing pack.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2

Rayo to miss chance to draw level with Betis

Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis
Sunday, 13:00
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Rayo Vallecano are still yet to taste defeat at home, though their underlying numbers aren’t quite on a par with the near-flawless defensive record behind that achievement. Defeat to Atlético Madrid last time out shows their limitations against top sides, and a Betis outfit with five away wins already this season can follow up October’s 3-2 home victory with another success against their rivals for a European spot.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 7.206/1 or 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Sevilla to break down Getafe’s resistance

Sevilla v Getafe
Sunday, 15:15
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Last week’s victory over Real Madrid demonstrated how Getafe have stabilised under Quique Sánchez Flores, and an average of 0.71 xGA across the last six games is seriously impressive for a team which started the season in such poor form. A trip to Sevilla won’t be easy, though, with the hosts’ unbeaten record at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán giving them the edge in a game unlikely to produce too many goals.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.806/1

Alavés to remain in danger

Alavés v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 17:30
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Athletic remain tough to break down on the road, with just one defeat from 10 outings, and an Alavés side with an unconvincing home record aren’t expected to change that. Infogol’s model backs the visitors to claim a second straight win on the road against opponents who they beat 1-0 in the reverse fixture, and two goals in total across the last three meetings suggests this could be a quiet affair.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1

Osasuna to claim a rare win

Osasuna v Cádiz
Sunday, 17:30
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Something’s got to give as two out-of-form sides face off at El Sadar, and Cádiz’s average of 0.43 xGF across their last three games suggests they’re the ones most in need of a big improvement. Osasuna have won the last three league meetings between the sides, including a late comeback from 2-0 down in August, and Infogol’s model expects Jagoba Arrasate’s team to make it four from four.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.207/1

Atléti to deny free-scoring Villarreal

Villarreal v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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Villarreal have won their last four games in the league, averaging 3.28 xGF per game in the process, but defending champions Atlético Madrid are better placed than most to keep them quiet. Diego Simeone’s side began the new year with a comfortable home win, and an away average of 1.13 xGA – one of the best in La Liga – could be enough to deny opponents who have been worming their way up the table.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1

Espanyol to earn back-to-back wins

Espanyol v Elche
Monday, 20:00
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Espanyol haven’t won successive league games since October, but have a golden chance to do just that against an Elche side who needed a late equaliser to claim a point from the reverse fixture. Vicente Moreno’s hosts have lost just once this term at RCDE Stadium, albeit from not entirely convincing xG numbers, and Infogol favours them against visitors whose 2.00 xGA average is among the league’s worst.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.008/1