La Liga xG Tips: Barca signings take centre-stage in Gameweek 23

“After an active end to the transfer window, Barcelona will hope their new signings can make an instant impact against the reigning champions.”

Getafe v Levante
Friday, 20:00
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Two of the bottom five are in action at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, but a home win can leave Getafe closer to the top four than to bottom-of-the-pile Levante. The hosts’ 1.02 xGA home average has been matched by their on-field numbers, and Infogol’s model expects their resurgence under Quique Sánchez Flores to continue against opponents who they narrowly beat at the end of last season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1

Alavés to pick up crucial three points

Elche v Alavés
Saturday, 13:00
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This weekend’s fixtures leave Alavés at risk of being cast adrift if they lose at Elche and other results go against them, but Infogol gives José Luis Mendilibar’s side a narrow edge as they aim to complete a league double over their opponents. The hosts’ 1.84 xGA average is among the worst in the league, though they are tougher to break down at Martínez Valero, and the first goal could be key.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 18.0017/1

Mallorca to earn first win in six

Mallorca v Cádiz
Saturday, 15:15
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Mallorca have averaged 1.99 xGA across their last four games – all defeats – and you have to go back to early October for their last home league win. However, there was a Copa del Rey victory over Espanyol at Visit Mallorca Estadi, and if the home side are going to return to winning ways in La Liga then surely a meeting with the side holding the league’s worst xGA record is the time to do it.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.808/1 or 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Celta to further dent Rayo’s European bid

Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, 17:30
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Rayo’s away form looks set to cost them a shot at European football next season, with their 1.75 xGA average emphasising the issue. Next up for Andoni Iraola’s side is a Celta outfit who drew at Vallecas earlier in the season, and Infogol’s model backs the hosts for a victory which would narrow the gap between these two sides to just a single point.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1 or 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Sevilla to keep title hopes alive

Osasuna v Sevilla
Saturday, 20:00
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Sevilla continue to maintain La Liga’s best away xGA return, and have conceded just six on the road in real terms. Osasuna have been better at home than their points tally of 11 from 11 games at El Sadar suggests, but this meeting will be a challenge against opponents who have won the last three clashes between the two sides without conceding a single goal.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 10.009/1

Real Sociedad to stay in touch with top four

Valencia v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 13:00
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With Barcelona and Atlético Madrid facing off later on Sunday, La Real’s trip to the Mestalla can help them reinvigorate a flagging top-four bid after a tricky spell. The hosts are dangerous in front of their own fans, so this will be no walk in the park, but Infogol’s model considers Imanol Alguacil’s side the more likely to claim the points and stay in Champions League contention.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-1 @ 6.806/1

Barça to earn crucial win in Champions League chase

Barcelona v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 15:15
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After an active end to the transfer window, Barcelona will hope their new signings can make an instant impact against the reigning champions. Atléti have kept their heads above water thanks to seven points from a possible nine since the turn of the year, but the hosts’ 2.20 xGF average at Camp Nou will worry even a Diego Simeone defence – and that’s before the new additions.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1

Villarreal to blow top four race wide open

Real Betis v Villarreal
Sunday, 17:30
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Victory for Real Betis would cement their place in the top four, but Infogol’s model expects Manuel Pellegrini’s side to be pegged back on Sunday. Villarreal have averaged a frightening 2.74 xGF across their last six games, and even the impressive back-to-back wins recorded by the hosts in January isn’t expected to be enough to carry them to three points at Benito Villamarín.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Real Madrid to maintain hold on top spot

Real Madrid v Granada
Sunday, 20:00
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Real Madrid put four past Granada when the sides met in November, and Carlo Ancelotti’s league leaders will be confident of victory against opponents who they also beat home and away last season. The visitors are averaging 1.58 xGA on the road – not the best in the league but not the worst – but Infogol still expects a four-game winless run to become five after Sunday night.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.008/1

Athletic to stretch unbeaten run to four

Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol
Monday, 20:00
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Athletic’s impressive home return of 0.93 xGA per game looks unlikely to be troubled by an Espanyol side much better at home than on the road, and that’s before considering the hosts’ return of seven points from three away games to start the new calendar year. Raúl de Tomás was sent off in the reverse fixture, and the visitors will need him at his best to avoid defeat at San Mamés.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2