Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as two Champions League competitors face domestic tests…
“Away defeats against two struggling opponents will worry Villarreal fans, who may be worried Unai Emery has put all his eggs in the Champions League basket, and we should get a sign of where his team stand as they return to Estadio de la Cerámica in between their two quarter-final legs.”
Sevilla to return to winning ways
Sevilla v Granada
Friday, 20:00
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Sevilla’s four-game winless run comes with the caveat of three of those fixtures being played away from Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, and a return to home soil can bring a change in fortunes for Julen Lopetegui’s team. Granada have stopped the rot under Ruben Torrecilla, but this might be too big an ask for the strugglers and their battle against the drop may hinge on results later in the run-in.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.6011/2
Cádiz to fall short at home
Cádiz v Real Betis
Saturday, 13:00
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No team in La Liga has fewer home points than Cádiz, while their 1.55 xGA at Nuevo Mirandilla is one of the worse home averages in the division. Infogol’s model doesn’t expect them to turn things around against a Betis side impressing on the road, and the visitors can keep their top four hopes just about alive by claiming an eighth road win of the season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2 or 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Atléti’s winning run to continue
Mallorca v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Mallorca weren’t able to drag themselves out of the bottom three last weekend, and the prospect of a meeting with the reigning champions will likely clause them plenty of sleepless nights. The visitors may be slightly distracted by their Champions League responsibilities, but a run of six straight victories could well become seven after another impressive showing last time out.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Villarreal to break out of domestic funk
Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 17:30
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Away defeats against two struggling opponents will worry Villarreal fans, who may be worried Unai Emery has put all his eggs in the Champions League basket, and we should get a sign of where his team stand as they return to Estadio de la Cerámica in between their two quarter-final legs. Villarreal have averaged a huge 2.27 xGF at home across the league season, and Infogol expects this to be enough against Athletic.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Madrid to move closer to title
Real Madrid v Getafe
Saturday, 20:00
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Four wins from the last four home games could well be enough to give Real Madrid the title, and their 2.37 xGF average on home soil is a league-best return going into their game against Getafe. Carlo Ancelotti’s side were shocked in the reverse fixture, but Getafe’s winless away record owes a lot to their 0.86 xGF return, and anything other than a home win would be a big surprise.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.806/1
Alavés to suffer more away punishment
Osasuna v Alavés
Sunday, 13:00
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Alavés have averaged a massive 2.23 xGA away from home, and this could yet be their downfall as they go into this weekend six points from safety. Opponents Osasuna are averaging just 1.04 xGA at El Sadar, and Infogol’s model backs them to get the better of their troubled opponents and earn a third straight home victory in the process.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Celta to win mid-table battle
Espanyol v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 15:15
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Espanyol and Celta Vigo go into this game level on points, but the visitors will point to their comfortable victory in the reverse fixture and home they can deliver more of the same at RDCE Stadium. Eduardo Coudet’s side were undone by a pair of penalties against Real Madrid last time out, but they’ll want to prove they’ve put that behind them as they make a push for a top-half finish.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.0014/1
La Real to extend unbeaten run
Elche v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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After a three match unbeaten streak containing 0 goals conceded and an average of just 0.67 xGA per game, Real Sociedad will surely fancy themselves against an Elche side averaging a paltry 1.16 xGF per game at Martínez Valero. Imanol Alguacil’s side should be buoyed by the nature of their late victory over Espanyol on Monday night, and a league double is very much on the cards.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 10.5019/2
Barça to keep Levante floundering
Levante v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Levante have moved off the bottom of the table for the first time since November, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to stay in La Liga. Unfortunately for Alessio Lisci’s side, they face the prospect of a Barça team still flying in the league, and even a set of underlying numbers which points to them deserving a higher placing in the table seems unlikely to help the hosts out.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Rayo to claim long-awaited win
Rayo Vallecano v Valencia
Monday, 20:00
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Valencia come into this game on a five-game unbeaten run, but Infogol backs Rayo to stop that run with a first win of 2022. The home side are averaging just 1.11 xGA at Vallecas, and they’re backed to keep their opponents at bay and move one step closer to La Liga survival by claiming a ninth home victory since returning to the top flight.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
