Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions ahead of the Madrid derby…
“Atlético Madrid sat top of the table at this stage of last season, but a defeat in Sunday’s derby could leave Diego Simeone’s side 13 points off the summit.”
Mallorca to fall short after surprise Atléti win
Mallorca v Celta Vigo
Friday, 20:00
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Mallorca’s stunning late victory at Atlético Madrid last weekend helped pull them back towards mid-table, but Celta can climb back above Luis García’s side with a win at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Neither side has been especially consistent this season, hence their bottom-half positions going into the game, but Infogol’s model gives the visitors a slight upper hand.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.6011/2 or 1-2 @ 12.50
Espanyol to continue home run
Espanyol v Levante
Saturday, 13:00
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Espanyol have been outperforming their numbers at home this season, conceding just four goals from a 12.6 xGA average, and they’ll hope that doesn’t come back to bite them against bottom-of-the-table Levante. The visitors have found a bit of resilience on home soil themselves, but an away xGA of 1.61 xGA means the ball is very much in the hosts’ court.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Alavés to cut short Getafe’s unbeaten run
Alavés v Getafe
Saturday, 15:15
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Getafe have gone three games without conceding under Quique Sánchez Flores, with the underlying numbers to back it up, suggesting their trip to face goal-shy Alavés won’t be the most exciting. The hosts are averaging just 0.88 xGA across their last three at Mendizorrotza, and last season’s corresponding game ended goalless, but Infogol backs the home side to get over the line this time.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.50
Valencia to make it six games unbeaten
Valencia v Elche
Saturday, 17:30
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Valencia have lost just once at home this season, and a rare away win last weekend helped them climb back into the top half. Pepe Bordalás will be keen to keep the momentum going before next week’s derby against Levante, and it should be achievable against opponents averaging a league-worst 0.80 xGF across their eight away games and conceding chances freely on the road.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.207/1
Sevilla to keep hold of second spot
Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla
Saturday, 20:00
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Sevilla have the league’s lowest away xGA average, and this could be important in Bilbao against hosts who are similarly stingy at the back. Julep Lopetegui’s team sit in a very precarious second spot, with the teams below them breathing down their necks, but Infogol backs them to pull out a result after a make-or-break Champions League group stage closer on Wednesday night.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 16.0015/1
Villarreal to ease lingering relegation worries
Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 13:00
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Villarreal fans may feel their squad is too strong to be dragged into a relegation dogfight, but a return of just three wins from 15 games would worry anyone. They can make it four from 16 against poor travellers Rayo, though, and in the process pull closer to the sort of position their underlying numbers say they should be occupying.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Barça to inflict more home misery on Osasuna
Osasuna v Barcelona
Sunday, 15:15
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Osasuna have underperformed in relation to their numbers at El Sadar this season, and Barcelona’s surprise defeat last weekend might not be enough to give Jagoba Arrasate’s side confidence of a second home victory. Xavi’s visitors will arrive off the back of an energy-sapping Champions League trip to Munich, but are expected to have too much for a home side whose last win came in mid-October.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 19.0018/1
Betis to continue winning run
Real Betis v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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Real Betis’ three straight league victories have come with an average xGF of 1.71, though the win at Camp Nou was achieved with the lowest return of the trio of games. They face another top-six side this weekend, though defeat would see the visitors leapfrog them, and Infogol backs the hosts to get some vengeance for last season’s 3-0 defeat in the corresponding fixture.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
Real Madrid to gain significant derby victory
Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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Atlético Madrid sat top of the table at this stage of last season, but a defeat in Sunday’s derby could leave Diego Simeone’s side 13 points off the summit. A loss in this fixture last term was Atléti’s only reverse before Christmas, and they’re expected to suffer a similar fate against a Real Madrid side averaging 2.09 xGF at the Bernabéu this term and similar numbers away from home.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1
Cádiz and Granada to cancel each other out
Cádiz v Granada
Monday, 20:00
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Two of La Liga’s worst defensive records are on show at Ramón de Carranza on Monday night, with the hosts’ 1.86 xGA and the visitors’ 1.93 xGA averages explaining their lowly positions. Infogol can’t find anything to choose between two teams who played out a 1-1 draw in the corresponding game last season, and a repeat – right down to the scoreline – wouldn’t be out of the question.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.005/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
