Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Sevilla look to stay top of the pile…
“A surprise defeat at Martínez Valero last season put one of the more frustrating dents in Sevilla’s on-off title battle, but Julen Lopetegui will be confident of victory this time around after a perfect start to the campaign.”
Mallorca v Espanyol
Friday, 19:00
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After kicking off the season with successive goalless draws, with solid underlying numbers to boot, Espanyol will be keen to open their account against the team they pipped to the Segunda title last term. Vicente Moreno’s side won the corresponding fixture last season, and Infogol’s model makes them narrow favourites to leave the Visit Mallorca Stadium with all three points once again.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 17.0016/1
Valencia to maintain unbeaten start
Valencia v Alavés
Friday, 21:15
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No team has conceded more goals than Alavés across the first two games of the season, and Valencia will have the added carrot of knowing they can at least temporarily go top with the right result against a side which averaged 1.58 xGA on the road last season. Pepe Bordalás has started well in his new surroundings, and it’ll be important for his team to get points on the board before a daunting double-header against Real Madrid and Sevilla next month.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.208/1
Athletic to pick up first win
Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 16:00
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Athletic were unfortunate not to beat Barcelona last weekend, creating plenty of chances in an eventual 1-1 draw, and more of the same in Vigo can help Marcelino’s team earn a first league win since early May. Last season’s meeting between these sides ended goalless, and Infogol’s model offers just a 36% chance of more than 2.5 goals, but the visitors are slight favourites to claim victory at Balaídos.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 17.0016/1
Sevilla to make it three wins from three
Elche v Sevilla
Saturday, 18:30
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A surprise defeat at Martínez Valero last season put one of the more frustrating dents in Sevilla’s on-off title battle, but Julen Lopetegui will be confident of victory this time around after a perfect start to the campaign. Elche are still yet to find the net this term, averaging 0.62 xGF per game, and they’re unlikely to find it easy against the team with La Liga’s second-best away xGA numbers last season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 8.007/1
Real Sociedad to enjoy home comforts
Real Sociedad v Levante
Saturday, 18:30
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By the time Real Sociedad welcome Levante on Saturday, they’ll have learned their Europa League group stage opponents, and the prospect of a crowded schedule may make it even more important to get points on the board now. Last week’s game against Rayo Vallecano brought an improvement compared to the away opener, and Imanol Alguacil’s side can enjoy another fruitful evening at Anoeta against opponents who they saw off in the corresponding game last season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2
Madrid to return to winning ways
Real Betis v Real Madrid
Saturday, 21:00
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Real Madrid might consider themselves a little unfortunate not to have won at Levante last weekend, with the home side netting three times from 1.38 xGF, but seven goals scored in two games will be encouraging for Carlo Ancelotti. Los Blancos can add to that in Seville, against a Betis side yet to properly get into gear, and Infogol’s model makes them 59% favourites to follow last season’s 3-2 victory with another win at Benito Villamarín.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1
Barça to find their finishing touch once more
Barcelona v Getafe
Sunday, 16:00
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A return to Camp Nou ought to be good news for Barcelona, who struggled on the road last weekend but enjoyed the league’s best home xGF by some distance in 2020-21. Opponents Getafe shipped five in the corresponding game back in April, and even a Messi-less Barça should have the goods to see off a team still without a point or a goal this time around.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 10.5019/2
Osasuna to pip Cádiz
Cádiz v Osasuna
Sunday, 18:30
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Osasuna escaped Ramón de Carranza with all three points on the opening day of last season, and Infogol’s model makes them very narrow favourites to repeat the feat on Sunday. Both of these teams have begun the campaign with back-to-back draws, and another wouldn’t be out of the question, but if we do get a winner then the visitors look most likely after flexing their muscles with no reward in last week’s stalemate against Celta.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 12.0011/1
Granada to hand Rayo a third defeat
Rayo Vallecano v Granada
Sunday, 18:30
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Rayo have endured a tough start, suffering two away losses without a goal to show for their efforts, and things may at least be closer as Vallecas hosts its first La Liga game since 2019. Even so, Infogol backs Granada to just about have too much for Andoni Iraola’s men, with the visitors chasing a first away victory since shocking Barcelona at Camp Nou in April.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.50
Atléti to shut out Villarreal
Atlético Madrid v Villarreal
Sunday, 21:00
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Villarreal were one of just four visiting sides to avoid defeat at the Wanda Metropolitano last season, coming away with a point after a game of very few chances, but Infogol backs the champions to make the slight improvement they need to claim victory. Unai Emery’s team have scored just once in the last five meetings between the sides, and even one goal for the champions could end up being enough.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.808/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
