Chelsea are in mixed form and Zenit may have enough to stop them getting the win in St Petersburg on Wednesday, says but Dave Tindall…
“Zenit are top of the Russian League, showed they could be competitive against Chelsea in the first meeting at Stamford Bridge and even have some good history against English sides.”
Zenit’s fate already confirmed
Zenit St Petersburg have managed a win and a draw in their five Group H games so far. All those points came against Malmo which means even if they lose to Chelsea and the Swedes score a shock win in Turin to join them on four points, Zenit are guaranteed third spot due to head-to-heads.
So what incentive is there for the hosts ahead of Wednesday’s showdown in the Gazprom Arena? Apart from pride, the obvious answer is prize money. Each group stage win is worth 2.8million Euros while a draw guarantees 930,000 Euros.
Zenit’s two home games so far have seen them thrash Malmo 4-0 and lose by just a single goal to Juventus, whose winner came just four minutes from time.
Sergei Semak, Zenit’s head coach, said of that game: “Chances were scarce but both sides created them. Unfortunately our opponents scored their goal and we didn’t.”
The Russians also lost by just a single goal in the first meeting against Chelsea. That was settled by a Romelu Lukaku strike in the 69th minute.
Victory still important for Blues
Holders Chelsea, like all the Premier League sides, have already booked their place in the knockout phase of the Champions League. The incentive on Wednesday night is to keep their noses in front of second-placed Juventus.
Both sides have 12 points after four wins apiece against the other two group rivals, Zenit and Malmo. But Chelsea’s victory 4-0 over Juve last time means they’ll win the group if matching or bettering the Italians’ result in the final round of matches.
Chelsea were superb in that victory over Juventus a fortnight ago but their Premier League form either side has stuttered and stalled.
They were held to a home draw by Burnley, had to settle for another 1-1 at Stamford Bridge against Manchester United and, after a rather fortunate 2-1 win at Watford, they succumbed to a 3-2 loss at West Ham on Saturday.
From looking as if they could open up a gap at the top of the table, Thomas Tuchel’s menended the weekend in third spot. The German boss gave an honest assessment later. “We did too many individual mistakes. We did already against Man Utd, against Watford and got punished. If you want a result, you have to minimise the mistakes.”
Chelsea did indeed win the first meeting between the pair. And they’re just 1.594/7 to sink the men from St Petersburg again.
But let’s not forget that Russian international Artem Dzyuba had a glorious chance to snatch a point late on. A Draw on Wednesday night is 4.47/2 while Zenit are 6.86/1 to take victory.
Chelsea’s wobbles, as you might expect, have coincided with some of their key players picking up injuries.
Midfield stars N’Golo Kante and Mateo Kovacic will again be missing while, at the back, Trevor Chalobah has joined Ben Chilwell on the absent list.
Lukaku is trying to find his way back to full fitness after a spell out but hasn’t looked sharp since coming back and Tuchel doesn’t exactly seem over-keen on just throwing him straight back in.
The Blues have a bigger squad than most but their form is unreliable. After his display against West Ham, even their beacon of consistency, Edouard Mendy, can’t be fully trusted.
Overall, there’s enough there to take the visitors on so I’m going to try a lay of Chelsea at 1.594/7.
Zenit are top of the Russian League, showed they could be competitive against Chelsea in the first meeting at Stamford Bridge and even have some good history against English sides. They’ve played just two Premier League sides at home and won both (Bradford and Liverpool).
Zenit’s two home games in the group have seen 4-0 and 0-1 scorelines. The former came against Malmo, a match which saw the Swedes reduced to 10 men early in the second half.
The best correlating form is Zenit’s home game with Juventus where the only goal of the game (for the visitors) came late.
Add in Zenit’s battling performance at Stamford Bridge – another 1-0 loss – and there’s scope here to play the underdog Unders quote of 2.1411/10.
Even if the match goes Chelsea’s way and we lose the lay bet, it’s perfectly reasonable to think that Tuchel’s side win it 1-0 or 2-0 which are winners for the Unders punt.
If you want to play those two scorelines, it’s 8.27/1 for 1-0 Chelsea and 8.615/2 for 2-0. They’re the two lowest quotes in the Correct Score lists.
Source: BetFair Tips
