Wycombe Wanderers v MK Dons: Ainsworth can conjure up another mighty performance

Wycome Wanderers v MK Dons
Thursday 5th May, kick off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

The League One season reaches its climax with playoff games across the three days this week with Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday giving the players no let up in their quest to reach the riches of the Championship. Rotherham made it, with 90 points but couldn’t deliver to win the title despite looking the best team throughout the season. The antepost tip of 15.014/1 hit a low of 1.331/3 during their golden run, and was a real blow to see them finish second behind Wigan.

Heading into the first on Thursday, Sheffield Wednesday edge favouritism at 3.259/4 in the Promotion market, closely followed by MK Dons 3.55/2 and Sunderland 4.03/1. The outsiders are Wycombe at 5.04/1 and shouldn’t be written off considering their previous playoff experience.

Head to head this season

Both games in the regular season finished 1-0 to the MK Dons both home and away with Troy Parrott scoring from the spot in the first encounter at Stadium MK in September – a game in which Liam Manning’s men enjoyed nearly 80% of the possession. Eighty!

The stats with the ball were slightly more even in the return game at Adams Park in January but the result was still the same with Scott Twine’s early goal settling the match. They did meet in the Papa John’s Trophy too with a 2-1 scoreline, but those games are largely meaningless.

Those two games have unsurprisingly influenced the Under 2.5 market massively. That Under 2.5 Goals trades at 1.684/6, which is complete no-no. It’s far too short for a game at this level, so value seekers might be edging towards the Under 1.5 Goals which trades at 2.962/1.

Ainsworth could be Ewood bound according to speculation

Wycombe are appearing in their sixth EFL play-off campaign, reaching the final in three of those (1994, 2015, 2020) and managing promotion in two (1994, 2020). Under Gareth Ainsworth and despite losing on penalties in the 2015 final, the Chairboys have never lost a play-off game (W4 D2).

A far from straight-forward week too for the Chairboys boss, who on the eve of leading his team into the two-legs, has had to fend off or address speculation linking him to the managerial role at Blackburn Rovers. It’s not the first time he’s been mentioned with a move away from Adams Park, but the lure of a move to Ewood Park could prove too strong, as it was his boyhood club and he was once released from the Academy as an 18-year-old by the great Don Mackay.

Of course Tony Mowbray hasn’t left yet, but it’s widely expected so. It’s a distraction Wycombe could do without.

Wycombe ended the season strongly with a run of 12 unbeaten despite a wobble, and for a while before Christmas were storming the division. They won five successive matches at Adams Park all with clean sheets and even beat Sheffield Wednesday 1-0. They also ground out a 0-0 versus Rotherham.

Don’t panic Manning

Not to be outdone in the speculation stakes, MK boss Liam Manning has been linked with a move to QPR. His work this season would rate an 8.5/10, as one of the best teams to watch in the division, with a side that sticks to their mantra of play on the floor. Few are better.

Eighty nine points were accrued for the campaign, and to finish with 89 and miss out on automatic promotion seems a touch unlucky, but the standard in the top six has been excellent. They themselves never quite suffered a crisis in results over a prolonged period, but when it mattered, they only won two of their last five – which resulted in them missing out a place in the top two.

However, they saved one of their most devastating performances for the final day of season with a sensational 0-5 win at Plymouth. The majestic Twine bagged four goals and also hit the woodwork, and this was in the teeth of a red-hot atmosphere against a side that were not only progressive, but also one that had a shot of the playoffs if they won.

Twine won the League One Player Of The Season, and won’t be in League One next term whatever way it goes, he’s too good for someone not to make a move.

Manning’s men won both 13 home and away and scored more goals on the road with 44 than at home with 34.

On home soil, Wycombe have beaten MK Dons only once over their six previous meetings (D2 L3), a 3-2 win in August 2019.

Despite the riches of the MK Dons’ glittering passing game and 89 points, they are not favourites for this, which is a surprise at 3.185/40. Wycombe trade at 2.568/5, but layers are cute to the fact Wycombe were so strong in the 2019/20 playoff run that saw them brush aside Fleetwood over two legs in the semi-final and then Oxford at Wembley.

Both of those opponents are “passing teams”, but Wycombe were fantastic in the first-leg two seasons ago with a performance of such high energy and desire. I can see the same again and they have such know-how. They encapsulate what Ainsworth has achieved on a budget way inferior to his rivals.

The hosts for Thursday night only lost four times at home with 14 victories, and that price of 2.568/5 is not too bad.

Wycombe are appearing in their sixth EFL play-off campaign, reaching the final in three of those (1994, 2015, 2020) and managing promotion in two (1994, 2020). Under Gareth Ainsworth and despite losing on penalties in the 2015 final, the Chairboys have never lost a play-off game (W4 D2). That shows a good mentality, so it’s where I am heading for the bet on Thursday.

With the two matches in the regular season producing just two goals, the possible to trade is to start off with the back of the draw outright at 3.39/4 and lay off at around 2.01/1 if we get to around 25 to 30 minutes at 0-0.

Under 2.5 looks very short

That price mentioned for Under 2.5 looks far too short, although Opta stats say MK Dons have scored in each of the previous 14 clashes with Wycombe in all competitions (25 in total), winning each of the last four matches between the sides, keeping a clean sheet in three of those.

The Dons registered a league-high total of 529 sequences of 10+ passes in open play this season, while opponents Wycombe had a league-low total of just 19 such sequences, which represents a total clash of styles – beauty against hard graft. And if there was passes market, Dons would be 1/100.

With an expected close game, I prefer to use the Both Teams To Score ‘No’ market, and if you are looking to play on the Unders, including the two on Bet Builder pays 1.9720/21.

I have mentioned, and tweeted that on the final day of the regular League One season, MK Dons’ Scott Twine (22y 290d) became the youngest player to score 4+ goals in an English Football League match since Tammy Abraham for Aston Villa against Nottingham Forest in November 2018 (21y 57d). In fact, Twine was the only player in League One to register double figures for both goals and assists in 2021-22 (20 goals, 13 assists).

His penchant for a long-range goal and cool mentality make him a standout to do well tonight, and Twine featured on the Oddsboost with him to score two or more from 9/1 to 11/1 appeals.

I prefer another option which is the Twine To Have One Or More Shots On Target In Each Half at 4/1 on the Sportsbook.

Wycombe are so strong defensively and are known as spoilers. Long-range pot-shots could be the norm, and that’s not a bad price as the youngster is pretty deadly.

Left-back Joe Jacobson is always worth a second look for Wycombe with his deadly corners and magic wand of a left-foot. Backing him to have 1 Shot On Target and the hosts to win pays out a Sportsbook Bet Builder of 9.7. He also takes penalties – although missed one in the play-offs at Fleetwood two years ago.