Ste Tudor goes around the grounds to identify where the goals, assists and excitement can likely be found this weekend.
Wolves v Leeds
Premier League
Friday, 20:00
Wolves have a decent record in this fixture in recent years and will fancy their chances of overcoming Leeds after twice beating relegation battlers in the past fortnight. Should they do so however, Bruno Lage’s men will have to improve on their sharp-shooting at Molineux. In five of their last eight home games, they have fired blanks.
As for the visitors, to what extent the late drama at Elland Road last weekend comes into play here is hard to determine. Certainly, a 94th minute winner amidst a fight for survival can be a catalyst for change, particularly under a recently appointed manager. But if real problems exist, it can also be viewed in isolation.
Leeds’ 18 fouls against Norwich was high even for them, a team that not only resides rock-bottom of the fair play table but who have received 24% more yellow cards than the next worst offenders. It could get a bit tasty in the Black Country.
Goals, the ultimate hangover cure
Aston v Arsenal
Premier League
Saturday 12:30
Arsenal’s only losses since early December have been at home to Manchester City and Liverpool and it’s notable that they were applauded off both times by the Emirates faithful for their endeavour.
Elsewhere, Mikel Arteta’s side have been in decent shape, going into Thursday’s loss on the back of five straight wins and impressively sharing around the goal-scoring duties in the process. Nine players have been responsible for their last ten goals. It’s pertinent too that the Gunners boast a 100% return from their last four away games.
Villa have also looked like a revived proposition of late, or at least that applied until they stumbled at West Ham. Results though can sometimes not tell the whole truth and seven attempts on target informs us the Villans are still vibrant.
So long as neither team suffers a hangover from their recent set-backs we could be in for a cracker.
Pens and penance on Teeside
Middlesbrough v Chelsea
FA Cup
Saturday, 17:15
While Chelsea the club react to their sanctions like a surly, grounded teen, Thomas Tuchel and his squad are going about their business, bolstered by a siege mentality that might well see them fighting to the end of this season.
This spells bad news for Boro who have been dumped out of the FA Cup twice by the Blues in recent times with a final loss too back in 1997. The Play-Off contenders have been a model of inconsistency for a couple of months now but typically reserve their best for the Riverside, with nine straight home wins stretching back to November. It was also a huge plus that Aaron Connolly and Folarin Balogun both got on the score-sheet this week, loanees who have largely failed to ignite.
If Chelsea show up however, it’s difficult to see any upset in this one, especially with Kai Havertz in sensational form. The German has scored five and assisted once in his last five outings.
For all that, it is spot-kicks that grab the attention because no team in the Championship have been awarded more pens than Boro this term while the same goes for Chelsea in the top-flight.
Early flight from the Eagles
Crystal Palace v Everton
FA Cup
Sunday, 12:30
The Toffees are well and truly in the doldrums at present but so too were Watford in 2019, and Crystal Palace in 2016, and Aston Villa a year before, who all reached the FA Cup final despite haemorrhaging points on a weekly basis in the league. On occasion, the cup can be a welcome respite from crisis. It’s definitely a thing.
Even so, it’s hard to picture this current Everton set-up sufficiently raising their standards to meet a Palace side buoyed from successfully going toe-to-toe with Manchester City last Monday.
The Eagles have scored seven of their last 12 in the first half so let’s go with that and leave the rest to fate and any alchemy this tournament is known for.
A tale of two strikers
Leicester v Brentford
Premier League
Sunday, 14:00
A Vardy-less Leicester have picked up a meagre 0.8 points-per-game this term compared to the 1.5 ppg when their seasoned hit-man has been available. No surprises there perhaps, given his immense importance to the Foxes but what does raise an eyebrow is their scoring rate barely drops when the 35-year-old is absent, as he is currently.
This suggests, for all his goals, what Brendan Rodgers’ side miss infinitely more is Vardy’s presence; his pressing from the front setting the tone. His leadership skills too. They are quite simply not the same team without him.
Ivan Toney has the same stature at Brentford but for the Bees it’s most certainly and almost exclusively his goals they missed from August to January, as the forward laboured to find the net regularly at a higher level. He’s doing so now with seven in five and consequently his team is thriving.
Testing the Saints’ patience
Southampton v Manchester City
Fa Cup
Sunday, 15:00
It is of course always a vital consideration who scores first in any game but that is especially true on the south coast this weekend. In the league this season City have gone ahead on 22 occasions and won all 22. The Saints meanwhile have scored first on 18 occasions but only secured maximum points eight times.
The Saints have twice held the Blues to stalemates this season, impressively restricting them to a single shot on target at the Etihad last September but it’s inconceivable they can repeat that feat at St Marys, with a defence that has beginning to spring several leaks. Conceding every 33 minutes in their last three contests tells its own story.
City may have consecutively drawn a blank in the past week or so but their shot-count remains unnervingly high with an average of 18.6 attempts and 6.2 shots on target across their last five fixtures.
Setting Son
Tottenham v West Ham
Premier League
Sunday, 16:30
Goals, late drama, and comebacks are embedded in this fixture’s DNA so the Hammers’ routine 1-0 victory earlier this season was unexpected. Where were the two injury-time Spurs strikes to seemingly win it? Where was the last-gasp wonder-goal by Lanzini or Fornals to share the points?
That was a different Tottenham last autumn to the generally improved outfit we’ll see on Sunday but pretty much the same West Ham, though they are looking more susceptible at the back of late. In their last two games David Moyes’ men have been subjected to 35 attempts on Fabianski’s goal.
In Son Heung-min and Harry Kane, Tottenham possess a devastating pair who have often wrecked devastation on the Hammers. The former remarkably boasts seven assists from his 14 previous encounters.
Robust Reds to return to Wembley
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
FA Cup
Sunday, 18:00
Liverpool have only lost once to Championship fare under Jurgen Klopp and his post-match comments were pertinent. “I thought this line-up was ready for this game but obviously we weren’t and that doesn’t feel too good.”
With another trip to Wembley up for grabs and no further commitments in March, we can expect a strong line-up from the German, a departure from his selection thinking in the past for domestic cup competitions.
Which is bad news for Forest considering the phenomenal shape the Reds are in right now. In the league they’ve won nine on the bounce, conceding only twice, while up front a case can be made for any one of Salah, Mane, Jota or Diaz being the main man at the City Ground.
Can Forest pull off a shock upset? It’s extremely doubtful, though they have only failed to find the net once in their last 14 games. It’s worth noting also, that Steve Cooper’s side have converted 73.5% of their league goals in the second period.
Source: BetFair Tips
