Watford v Leicester
Saturday March 14, 12:30
TV: live on BT Sport 1
Watford front pair hitting their stride
Watford learnt the hard way that doing something great one week in the Premier League doesn’t mean you’re going to be able to repeat the trick the following week. After that extraordinary win against Liverpool, they lost 1-0 to a resilient Palace side in a game they were perhaps a bit unlucky to lose given what happened during 90 minutes.
But in a league where beating the best doesn’t give you any more points than getting the better of those in the lower part of the table, Watford need to remember that sometimes an ugly draw could be priceless, come May.
But let’s not be too harsh on them. The side has certainly improved under Nigel Pearson and though they’ll have to make do without their best creative player in Gerard Deulofeu, Ismaila Sarr and Troy Deeney are in arguably their best form of the season and should give defences a few headaches between now and the end of the season: the former quick and tricky, the latter physical, direct and dangerous in the air.
Foxes fresh from much-needed win
Talk about the best-laid plans of mice and men. You go and get back on track with an excellent 4-0 win and then three of your players are ruled out of their next game after showing symptoms of having ‘that thing’ that’s been going around. At the time of writing we don’t know which three or whether others have been affected but either way, it’s obviously a handicap, whichever three they are.
Their win over Aston Vila owed a lot to the under-rated Harvey Barnes, though Jamie Vardy’s double was what made most of the headlines after the speedy striker came off the bench to put away a penalty and add a late second with a good individual effort.
The win was not only important because it gave them some much-needed confidence but also for a far more practical reason: it meant they didn’t lose any more ground to Chelsea, who have slowly been putting pressure on them in their challenge for third place.
There are plenty of clues to suggest that Watford are value at [3.1]. First up, their record at home to Leicester is strong, with three wins in their last three at home to them (curiously all by a 2-1 scoreline). Then there’s the fact the Hornets have taken more points than everyone else bar Liverpool since Pearson took charge on December 22nd- both stats from Opta. Having said that, their win against Liverpool was the only one in their last seven home games, so maybe that’s the key stat after all and that’s not as good a price as it first seemed.
The same could be said about Leicester’s quote of [2.5]. They were great last time out but Villa are clearly struggling and their record here at Vicarage Road isn’t great, winning just two of their last 10 here.
I always think that with quite a few reasons to dodge both of those prices, it means the draw is by far the most attractive option, especially in a case like this, where it’s the biggest price of the three anyway, at [3.5]. So I’ll ignore the remarkable stat that this fixture has yielded just one draw in the last 20 editions of it and plump for the stalemate.
The market can’t split ‘overs’ and ‘under’. Can we? We can actually. Watford have a 64% hit rate for ‘overs’ games at home this season, Leicester’s is 57% and nine of the last 10 between these two with Watford at home have had at least three goals, including of course that sequence of three consecutive 2-1 home wins.
It’s easy to argue that all the evidence points to over 2.5 goals and we’ll side with that in a second.
So if we’re going to take that price on overs, what can we combine it with as a same-game multi? Obvious as it sounds, I’ll go with Vardy to get a goal.
He looked really sharp when coming off the bench and once he got the monkey off his back after that barren spell, I’m sure he’ll get back to scoring and challenging for Top Scorer honours.
It also helps that this fixture has a history of goals from the penalty spot: 6/25, that ratio being a Premier League record among fixtures with at least 20 goals in them. As Leicester’s penalty-taker, let’s hope this match throws up another penalty the Foxes’ way.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Deeney and Sarr at 13/8 and 5/2 respectively and be in profit if one of them scores but for the purpose of the SGMB, it’s Vardy we’re going with.
Source: BetFair Tips
