Vidi v Chelsea: Hard graft in Hungary

“All five of Vidi’s Europa League group-stage games have featured fewer than three goals, and I can’t see this one being a goalfest either.”

Back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.94]

Vidi v Chelsea
Thursday 13 December, 17:55
Live on BT Sport

It’s been something of a rollercoaster ride for the Hungarian champions Vidi in the Europa League. Having started the group stage with two defeats, they then beat PAOK home and away to get their charge back on track, only to lose at BATE Borisov on Matchday Five.

Vidi can still reach the last 32, but they must get a better result than Belarusian side BATE manage in Greece against PAOK. What will encourage Vidi boss Marko Nikolic is that his side’s performance against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was one of their best of the group stage so far. They were dogged and determined in defence, and made several excellent chances to equalise. The 1-0 defeat Vidi suffered in west London was a decent reflection of their efforts against the tournament favourites.

Vidi have won their last three home matches in all competitions, but they are certainly not invulnerable at the Puskas Akademia Pancho Arena. They have lost three of their last seven home games.

Nikolic has no fresh injury worries, and is expected to select his strongest available side.

Chelsea have hitherto justified their status as favourites to win the Europa League. They have won all five of their group-stage matches so far, with Maurizio Sarri perfectly judging the strength of his line-ups. Superstars like Eden Hazard have been used sparingly, while a core of players like Gary Cahill, Andreas Christensen, Cesc Fabregas, Pedro and Ruben Loftus-Cheek have seized their opportunities to shine.

The mood in west London has been lifted by the weekend’s stunning win over the champions Manchester City, and maintaining a flawless record in this competition would underline the remarkable progress being made in Sarri’s first season at the helm. It’s easy to forget that the Italian has introduced a new and very specific style of play to his players, and they have taken his ideas on board in double-quick time.

Sarri has been cautious when it comes to using youngsters in this competition, but he did so to great effect on Matchday Five in the 4-0 win over PAOK. 18-year-old winger Callum Hudson-Odoi scored his first goal for Chelsea in his maiden European start, and there was also some game time for teenage Welshman Ethan Ampadu. Both players are expected to start in Hungary.

It’s tempting to think that Chelsea will ease off here, with top spot in their section already secure, but I don’t think they will do that. Sarri will still select a strong side, full of players keen to make a mark so they can be considered for selection in the Premier League.

Vidi gave Chelsea a few problems at Stamford Bridge, but at home they have already lost to AEK Athens and BATE this season. If BATE make a good start in Greece, it could force Vidi to chase the game, and that doesn’t really suit their style, and I suspect Chelsea would be able to pick them off on the counter.

Chelsea are trading at [1.75] to win, and that feels about right.

There are rarely lots of goals when Vidi are in Europa League action, largely because of their solid defending and competitive nature. Experienced centre-back Roland Juhasz was a colossus at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture.

All five of Vidi’s group games have featured fewer than three goals, as have three of Chelsea’s five UEL outings. I’m leaning towards backing Under 2.5 Goals here at [1.94].