Tuesday League One Tips: Expect goals in the Karl Robinson derby

Burton to draw yet another blank with Rotherham at the Pirelli

Burton Albion v Rotherham United
Tuesday 19th April, kick-off 19:45:00

Well well, it seems no team wants to win the title. MK Dons and Wigan both spectacularly slipped up on Saturday, games I got wrong in a spectacular way too. Quite how Cambridge upset the big odds at Wigan was a mystery.

The title race once again has been blown wide open, as Rotherham, who were trading at 17.5 in the League One Winner market, are now back into 4.3100/30 following a much-needed 1-0 success against Ipswich. That was the closest I got to a result at the weekend, but at least the ante-post bet on the Millers is alive once again.

A Michael Smith (his 25th of the season) late goal in front of the cameras ensured a huge sigh of relief was felt around Yorkshire. A nervy first 45 minutes was symptomatic of how the Millers have been playing of late, but the second half was more like the Rotherham of old. Despite not having the majority of possession, they bombarded the Town area with long-balls and set-pieces. That was a bit more like the Rotherham of old.

Their run of form was disastrous at one win from seven prior to the Ipswich win, but they remain only four points off Wigan now off levels.

Burton could be tricky opponents as they’ve nine at the Pirelli this term, but they haven’t scored a goal in five games. Three of those have been 0-0s, in fact it’s three on the spin going into Tuesday and one of those included a stalemate against the leaders Wigan.

I’m expecting a low-scorer, and using the Sportsbook Bet Builder, playing on the Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ pays out 2.13. There’s an option of also exploring the Under 1.5 Goals on the Exchange at 3.55/2, which looks a little too big given Rotherham’s away defensive record and Burton’s goalscoring worries.

As usual, it’s worth having a couple of digs at the Correct Score 0-0 and 0-1 here at 11.521/2 and 7.413/2. Burton nullified Wigan recently and kept them to wide areas in a game of very few chances, and it could be more of the same on Tuesday.

MK and U’s both suffering from promotion nosebleeds?

Oxford United v MK Dons
Tuesday 19th April, kick-off 19:45:00

The “Karl Robinson Derby” lies in store for Tuesday and two of the purest footballing sides go head-to-head. Possession will be the name of the game.

The U’s have dropped down to eighth in the table following three wins on the spin. They arrested the slide on Good Friday with a 2-3 success at Fleetwood, but it was a three-ponter not without its scares. Robinson’s side had raced into a 0-3 lead on 16 minutes and the game should have been out of sight. They had stretched the play and moved the ball from side to side as they always do, but a tactical switch from the hosts to a 4-2-3-1 was too hot to handle in the second half.

Recently they have either not been clinical or the opposing goalkeeper has had a “worldie”.

It seems every team is suffering some sort of blip at the wrong moment, and MK Dons had a great chance to push their title claims on Saturday but were blown away by Darren Moore’s Sheffield Wednesday in Buckinghamshire. The bad old MK crept back, of conceding goals early – letting in on 10, 20 and 30 minutes. A perfectly symmetrical concede rate.

Liam Manning rued the awful beginning by saying: “It was totally unlike us. When you play against good, experienced players and you get your margins wrong like we did, you find yourselves 3-0 down and chasing. What we saw in the second half was spirit and character, but Wednesday had something to defend.”

I was annoyed too, as I have been flagging up Scott Twine in the scoring markets, and he duly delivered. But I wasn’t expecting a 2-3 home loss. However, I am expecting goals, and Oxford will sense they can start fast and get something from this. United have scored 79 goals in 43 League One games, their fifth-highest total in a Football League season, so that’s a good stat to take us into the Over 2.5 bet – which looks a good price at 1.9310/11.

We can use that or the Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ and my man Twine For Anytime Scorer for a nice Bet Builder that pays 3.45. Oxford have a good record in the BTTS, as eight of their last nine have hit the frame and United have scored 79 goals in 43 League One games, their fifth-highest total in a Football League season.

Something a bit more daring is the Bet Builder with Twine To Score 2 Or More Goals, Over 3.5 Goals and BTTS ‘Yes’, and that pays a huge 21.49.

Addicks look poor value with season meandering

Cambridge United v Charlton Athletic
Tuesday 19th April, kick-off 19:45:00

Cambridge boss Mark Bonner was right. He foretold it was going to be an entertaining Easter weekend – well he had the first part right anyway with the U’s staggering victory at Wigan in front of the Sky cameras. Arguably their best performance and result of the season.

United are very hot and cold, but even at their hottest, few would have backed them on Saturday, or indeed taken on Wigan at odds of 1.331/3.

Three changes worked a treat for Cambridge. Offensively they were excellent on the counter-attack in the first-half, but in the second they sat deep, which isn’t really a gripe given how powerful Wigan’s attack is.

“It’s such a big achievement for us to have broken their record. But I don’t see it all unravelling, they still have enough in their squad to get over the line,” said mystic Bonner. So they need to back it up as their home record is W8 D7 L6.

I was a real fan of Johnnie Jackson’s high intensity and counter-press earlier in the season but they are proving to be a bit of a soft touch away from home. Eleven losses away from the Valley doesn’t instil a lot of confidence in backing them as favourites for this – especially as both really have nothing to play for.

The Addicks enjoyed all the possession on Good Friday, but lost to Morecambe 2-3 with nearly 70% of the ball. Chuks Aneke marked his first appearance for almost two months with a goal and he is pushing for a start in midweek.

However, an inconsistent side such as Charlton should be avoided at 2.568/5, especially with how Jackson is already looking forward to the summer and a recruitment drive. “It’s disappointing. I get it. None of us are where we want to be – even if we win every game. I get their frustration and I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’ve got to try and win these three games and then it’s a reset for the football club,” he said following Good Friday.

The Londoners won the reverse fixture 2-0 in south London in December, but I can see this going the other way and the U’s are a decent price.