Our football props column bagged a 4/1 winner on Monday. Next it’s got a near-8/1 shot for Tuesday’s Ajax v Benfica Champions League game…
“Mazraoui managed two shots in the first leg (and produced an assist). Across his last six games the Moroccan has shot tallies of (most recent first) 3-2-2-4-1-5.”
Value in the shot markets often lies with the defenders and that’s the angle I’m taking for Tuesday’s Champions League tie in Amsterdam.
Having won all six of their group games, Ajax are firm favourites (4/11) to win on the night, a result which would guarantee their progress following a 2-2 draw in Lisbon three weeks ago.
This is far from a vintage Benfica side – they currently sit third in Portugal, 12 points off the pace. In all competitions, they’ve lost all five games they’ve played against the two teams above them (Porto and Sporting).
Essentially, I see plenty of scope for home shots in this one.
Ajax could dominate from the off, while should Benfica get their noses in front, that would only serve to push the hosts in full-on attack mode.
With this in mind, I think it’s worth taking a chance on Noussair Mazraoui and Lisandro Martinez having their shooting boots on.
Right-back Mazraoui has been declared fit to play and if that is truly the case he will surely start having been one of Ajax’s best performers in the Estadio da Luz.
He managed two shots that night (and produced an assist). Across his last six games the Moroccan has shot tallies of (most recent first) 3-2-2-4-1-5.
OK, it’s easier to have shots in the Dutch Eredivisie, but he still looks likely to get in on the act if Ajax are pushing forward.
Centre-back Martinez’s ‘last six’ figures are 6-4-0-3-1-3.
The Argentine is the main set-piece threat in this team but is also prepared to try his luck from distance – don’t be surprised to see him letting fly if Ajax are searching for a goal.
He managed 2+ shots in three of his side’s six group games in this competition and at 21/10, I’m happy to put him down for two more in this contest.
The 2+ shots double pays close to 8/1.
Yes, we’ll need to game unfold in a decent way – we won’t want Ajax sitting back to defend a narrow lead – but such a price looks worth a try.
Click here for Jamie Pacheco’s in-depth preview of Ajax v Benfica
Source: BetFair Tips
