Tuesday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

“PSG Draw No Bet is worth considering: with this selection, you’ll get your money back if the game ends in a draw. Alternatively, consider back the Draw in a game where the sides may be better-matched than current prices would have you believe.”

Shakhtar 5.59/2 v Inter 1.618/13; The Draw 4.3100/30
Tuesday 28 September, 17:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Shakhtar and Inter are both without a point, after losing their respective opening games in the Champions League. Can either of them take three points in one of Tuesday earlier round of matches?

Dan Fitch says: “The reigning Serie A champions are undoubtedly weaker than last season, having lost Antonio Conte and key players such as Achraf Hakimi and Romelu Lukaku over the summer. Yet they still should be strong enough to compete for the title again this season, under new manager Simone Inzaghi. The 35-year old Edin Dzeko has proved to be an astute signing, with the veteran having scored five goals in seven appearances.

“Inter are the favourites at 1.618/13, with the draw at 4.3100/30 and Shakhtar at 5.59/2.

“The Italians are certainly the most likely victors, but their price looks a little slim considering that they’ve only won two of their last five games (D2 L1). Inter have conceded in each of their last six games and that could be key to finding some value.”

Dan’s bet: Back both Shakhtar and Inter to score at 1.84/5

PSG vs Man City
Tue, 20:00 BST
Live on BT Sport 2

Tournament Favourites Man City 5.39/2 visit the team that come next in the betting – PSG 6.05/1 – in a mouthwatering clash on Tuesday night.

James Eastham says: “PSG’s home record in the group stage is generally excellent: it reads W11-D3-L1 over the past five seasons. In that time they have hosted and beaten some of Europe’s heavyweight sides, including Real Madrid (3-0, 2019-20), Liverpool (2-1, 2018-19) and Bayern Munich (3-0, 2017-18).

“During the five years that Guardiola has been in charge, City’s Champions League group stage away record is W8-D5-L2. The fact that they have failed to win 47% of their group stage games under Guardiola shows that a win for the away side is far from a foregone conclusion. It’s also significant that City have yet to produce a clean sweep of three group stage away wins in a single season under their Spanish boss.

“Looked at in this light, the prices on a PSG win – or, alternatively, on City failing to win – become more appealing. PSG Draw No Bet is worth considering: with this selection, you’ll get your money back if the game ends in a draw. Alternatively, consider back the Draw in a game where the sides may be better-matched than current prices would have you believe.”

James’s bet: Back Paris St-G Draw No Bet at home to Man City @ 2.3211/8

Porto v Liverpool
20:00
Live on BT Sport 3 & BT Sport Extra

Liverpool are 10.09/1 to win European club football’s biggest prize for the seventh time in their history ahead of their home match against Porto.

Jamie Pacheco says: “Liverpool have been pretty ruthless when it comes to playing Porto over the past few years. In the 2018/19 season they beat them 2-0 at home and 4-1 away to win 6-1 on aggregate and the year before that it was 5-0 in Porto to the Reds, before they took their foot off the pedal and ‘just’ drew 0-0 at home, when all the hard work was done.

“Obvious as this may sound, there’s just that little bit more class in the Liverpool team. It begs the question: how many Porto players would get into the Liverpool side?

“It’s 1.768/11 the straight Liverpool win but I think we can do better than that. Remarkably, Liverpool have scored exactly three goals in each of their last five matches. Those were wins by 3-0, 3-2, 3-0 and 3-0, plus that 3-3 draw at the weekend. So they’re not just edging games 1-0, they’re very much looking to score lots of goals and win convincingly.

“But I wouldn’t discount Porto grabbing a goal themselves. Only away at Atletico, one of the toughest matches in club football, did they fail to score.”

Jamie’s bet: Back Liverpool to win + over 2.5 goals @ 2.56/4

AC Milan 2.915/8 v Atletico Madrid 2.6413/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Tuesday 28 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

Serie A title contenders AC Milan host the reigning La Liga champions Atletico Madrid in one of Tuesday’s most eye-catching ties.

Dan Fitch says: “Atletico Madrid are the narrow favourites at 2.6413/8, with AC Milan at 2.915/8 and the draw at 3.39/4. Given the respective form of these teams, it would probably make sense if these odds were reversed, as Milan have home advantage. Yet with Atletico having more Champions League experience in recent seasons, this game really could go any way and it would probably make sense to avoid the results markets.

“Despite the fact that Atletico are not playing that well, they have only conceded two goals over the past four games. Under 2.5 goals is 1.84/5 and has landed in three of Atletico’s last four games.

“The doubt will be that AC Milan are scoring plenty of goals. Both teams to score is 1.910/11, but when Atletico are involved, the game tends to be played on their terms.”

Dan’s bet: Back under 2.5 goals between AC Milan and Atletico Madrid at 1.84/5

Middlesbrough v Sheffield United
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Sheffield United have moved into the top half after winning at the weekend and Slavisa Jokanovic would be delighted with another three points away to struggling Middlesbrough.

Mark O’Haire says: “Middlesbrough have welcomed Sheffield United to The Riverside on six occasions since 1997 and the Teessiders’ have returned W5-D1-L0 during that sample. In fact, Boro have only been beaten once at home by the Blades since 1986 (W7-D3-L1) with the hosts keeping their sheets clean in each of the most recent five head-to-head duels here.

“Middlesbrough 2.809/5 have managed only two Championship triumphs thus far, including a sole success in seven (W1-D2-L4). Boro boast a W1-D1-L2 record at The Riverside, and although Neil Warnock’s men are posting reasonable performance data metrics, underwhelming displays have disappointed supporters, particularly in the final-third.

“Sheffield United 2.747/4 are unbeaten in five (W3-D2-L0) and appear to have clicked into gear after a slow start to life back in the second-tier. The Blades have posted W3-D3-L0 when taking on teams in the bottom-half of the standings, with their only road reverse arriving at high-flying West Brom (W1-D2-L1). United have fired in the fourth-most shots in the box.”

Mark’s bet: Back Sheffield United +0 Asian Handicap at 1.875/6