Tranmere v Morecambe: First leg to end in a draw

League Two semi-final first leg
Thursday May 20
Kick-off 18:00
Live on Sky Sports

Tranmere v Morecambe

As if a season played through a pandemic without crowds couldn’t get any more bizarre, a team sacks a manager going into a play-off campaign. (Opta tell us this happened in 1997-98 when Kevin Keegan took over from Ray Wilkins at Fulham.) Keith Hill, only appointed last November, was relieved of his duties by Tranmere after a poor run of two wins in 11 matches, amid players visibly verbally castigating each other after the final game of the season. This was apparently followed by dressing room arguments and the manager’s open criticisms of some of his players.

His assistant Ian Dawes, who enjoyed a short unbeaten stint before Hill arrived, is back in charge. The hosts have had one Wembley appearance already this season, losing to Sunderland in the EFL Trophy final. Since then, Hill said, performances had not been good enough. Two seasons ago, as Opta point out, they won their eighth different play-off campaign, beating Newport County in the final.

Morecambe finally found a manager capable of turning perennial relegation favourites into serious promotion contenders. In some previous campaigns, a decent first half of the season has put them in mid-table with an eye on the play-offs, before falling away. Now, under Derek Adams who has previously won promotion with Plymouth Argyle from this division, they have a record points haul, a highest-ever league finish and every chance of promotion. Bradford City have been linked with a move for Adams, which could be a distraction.

Opta state that the Shrimps have one previous play-off campaign, losing in the semi-finals to Dagenham & Redbridge in 2009-10. They lost the first leg 6-0. A repeat seems highly unlikely.

Marginal promotion favourites Morecambe have best form

Morecambe go into the play-offs with the best form of the four teams, having won five of their final six games. They are marginal favourites in the promotion market, at 3.39/4 but look stronger than that to me. Yet they are clear outsiders to win the first leg, at Tranmere at 3.412/5. The reason could be because their recent away record doesn’t look the strongest: wins at lowly Walsall and Grimsby but defeats to Port Vale and Cambridge.

Tranmere’s home form might be solid – four draws and two wins, each by a goal, in their past six at Prenton Park. Unbeaten, yes, but not particularly inspiring, which is why Hill is no longer in charge. Tranmere have scored three goals in six games, including for two 1-0 wins, while Joe Murphy has conceded just three goals. The hosts have two defeats in that time. So the hosts being favourites at 2.56/4 doesn’t quite sit right with the overall form of the two sides. Maybe the reintroduction of fans – home ones only – will make the difference.

For the visitors, if Aaron Wildig can forge a decent chance for himself or Cole Stockton, now apparently a target of Bolton and others, and Carlos Mendes Gomes, the draw at 3.412/5 could be worth overlooking. Toumani Diagouraga has also been playing an influential part in supplying chances, the latest Setting up Liam McAlinden to net the first against Bradford last time out.

However, Tranmere have seven draws in that run of two wins in 11, four of them goalless, so the chances of finishing this match level seem to be more likely than reflected in a normal draw price.

For Rovers, influential midfielder Paul Lewis returned after injury for the season’s final game, but more importantly so did former Everton striker James Vaughan, top scorer with 18 this season. The front man has been out since mid-February with a knee injury and has made a tentative return on the bench. Hill said the reason Tranmere had not turned fourth place a few weeks ago into a top three spot was because of the lack of “team goals”, from different players. Kaiyne Woolery has eight and Lewis six.

On the attack plus side, Opta tell us that Liam Feeney has created 92 chances for Tranmere this season, only bettered in League Two by Harrogate’s George Thompson (135). Feeney has eight assists to goals in total.

With five clean sheets in seven games, Tranmere also been hard to break down. Despite Morecambe’s 15 goals in their past six matches, a draw might be a good place to start in this match with goals more likely, from the Morecambe point of view, more likely back on home turf on Sunday.

Low scoring draw a place to start

Given host Tranmere’s penchant for low-scoring games of late, it should be no surprise that three of the shortest correct score prices are 8.07/1 for 1-0, 9.08/1 for 0-0 and 10.09/1 for 0-1. The shortest price of all, however, is 7.06/1 for 1-1 and that might just be the bet. It is the cumulative score of the fixtures between the two sides this season – both winning 1-0 away from home.

Can Dawes lift Rovers? A change at the helm has to make some sort of difference to a string of results that left one reporter concluding after the final game of the season: it wasn’t pretty, but then it hasn’t been for months. If they took their foot off the pedal recently, the time to press it down again is now. Morecambe have shown they can score plentifully against lower ranked sides in the division, but lost to Bolton and Cambridge recently.

Mendes-Gomes the pick to strike first

So who will get the goals if indeed there are any? No scorer is [5-1] on Sportsbook if you fancy a goalless draw. For the hosts Vaughan, the market favourite at [9-2] is not guaranteed to start, while Morecambe’s Stockton, the focal point of attack, is [5-1] with David Nugent, who has not been particularly proficient for the hosts, and Woolery, who was often a substitute during the season.

Lewis, influential from midfield, would probably have to be a better choice at [6-1] I think Mendes-Gomes for the visitors has to be considered best value at [6-1]. The lithe and lively Spanish winger, aged 22, has struck seven of his 15 goals this season in the past 15 games. Only Phil Jevons, state Opta, has more goals in an EFL season (18) for Morecambe, back in 2009-10.