Thursday’s football props column has 4/1 and 9/1 suggestions for the Africa Cup of Nations semi-final between Cameroon and Egypt…
“Aboubakar has enjoyed shot tallies of 6-5-4-6-6 so far for a total of 27 – by far the most in the competition, seven clear of the next man in the list.”
Cameroon v Egypt
Thursday 3 February, 19:00
Live on BBC Three, Sky Sports Football, Premier League & Mix
Cameroon have offered the most attacking threat at the Africa Cup of Nations so far and look set to have a go at Egypt when the sides meet in Thursday’s second semi-final.
Boss Toni Conceicao has urged his team to “stay ambitious” in this game, something they’ve certainly managed in previous outings.
Vincent Aboubakar is the tournament top scorer with six goals, while team-mate Karl Toko Ekambi has five.
With the pair joined by Nicolas Moumi Ngamabeu, the front three have dominated Cameroon’s shooting stats and it may pay to follow them here.
Aboubakar has enjoyed shot tallies of 6-5-4-6-6 so far for a total of 27 – by far the most in the competition, seven clear of the next man in the list.
As central striker, he is very much the focal point of the attack and even though Egypt’s defence is arguably the best he’s faced so far, he’s the sort of player who will look to get shots away whenever possible.
I use the word ‘arguably’ because Egypt’s backline will be shorn of Ahmed Hegazi with the former West Brom centre-back out injured. That’s a big blow and Aboubakar will doubtless look to capitalise.
With this being a semi-final, there’s the obvious danger that the game becomes a tight affair but with this in mind, I’ll take the insurance of going for 4+ shots for the former Porto star rather than 5+.
I’m also going to back a Cameroon defender for 1+ shot, namely Collins Fai.
The right-back has landed this in four of five games so far and I’d expect the hosts to push Fai further forward than their other full-back, Nouhou Tolo, given Mo Salah will be on the other side of the pitch, looking to exploit any holes left by marauding defenders.
To complete a three-legged shots Bet Builder, let’s add Egypt’s centre forward, Mostafa Mohamed.
He’s been consistently priced up bigger than Mo Salah, a legacy of the latter’s Premier League stats, but Mohamed has out-shot Salah 15-13 so far here, using his central position to good effect.
His 90-minute shot tallies at the tournament have been 1-5-3-3-2 – the latter two figures coming against strong opposition in Ivory Coast and Morocco.
With Egypt having improved with every game, they look capable of troubling Cameroon more than any side has managed so far and I’ll put Mohamed down for 2+ shots.
The treble pays just over 4/1.
While that’s the main bet, I can’t resist another eyecatching so will split stakes to include backing Martin Hongla for an assist.
Much of Cameroon’s play was flowed through the Verona midfielder, who has regularly delivered the ball to the attack.
That’s reflected in the fact he’s managed an assist in each of his three games thus far.
If the Indomitable Lions are able to continue their free-scoring ways, then Hongla looks likely to play a part and 9/1 about him having another assist looks big, particularly given the absence of Hegazi from the Egypt defence.
Let’s go two-thirds of the stake on the shots bet and one-third on the assist.
Click here to read James Eastham’s in-depth preview of Cameroon v Egypt
Source: BetFair Tips
