Southampton v West Ham: Moyes’ men can edge tight match

“The Hammers had a blip in mid-January with back-to-back league defeats against Leeds and Manchester United but those are their only losses in the last 11 in all competitions.” Recommended Bet Back West Ham on draw no bet at 2.3211/8

Southampton v West Ham
Wednesday March 2, 19:30
Live on BBC Red Button and iPlayer

Tougher test for Saints

This is one of only two all-Premier League clashes in the FA Cup fifth round and the first in this season’s competition for Southampton, who have needed extra-time to beat two Championship sides to reach this stage.

In the third round Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side took an early lead at Swansea but were reduced to 10 men before the half-hour mark and eventually went 2-1 behind early in extra-time before surging back to take a 3-2 win.

The score was also 1-1 after 90 minutes at home to Coventry in the fourth round but Kyle Walker-Peters took the Saints through with a 112th-minute goal.

Hasenhuttl could ring the changes as in previous rounds, calling in Willy Caballero, Yan Valery, Thierry Small and Ibrahima Diallo.

Alex McCarthy, Lyanco and Nathan Tella are still on the injury list.

Hammers face quicker turnaround

West Ham had a comfortable 2-0 home win over Leeds in the third round but had a major scare in round four, needing a stoppage-time equaliser at non-league Kidderminster to take the tie into extra-time and then another last-minute goal to avoid penalties with a 2-1 win.

A factor to consider here is that the Hammers played on Sunday in the Premier League, beating Wolves 1-0 at home, whereas Southampton have had an extra two days since their 2-0 home win over Norwich on Friday night.

That could prompt David Moyes to make changes, with Mark Noble, Nikola Vlasic and Said Benrahma possible starters.

Angelo Ogbonna and Vladimir Coufal are injured, while Ukraine’s Andriy Yarmolenko has been given time off due to the war in his homeland.

Southampton have a slight edge in several areas, not only with home advantage but also on head-to-head results in the Premier League this season (four points out of six) and current form (fifth over the last 10 league matches against West Ham’s seventh).

The first win in Southampton’s elevated form was the 3-2 away victory at West Ham on Boxing Day when they were pegged back twice after taking the lead but eventually secured the three points with Jan Bednarek’s header from a James Ward-Prowse free-kick.

That ended a long wait for a win since November 5 but Hasenhuttl’s side have kept the form going with a record of W5 D5 L1 in all competitions starting with the West Ham win.

Southampton’s home form has been good all season with only one defeat ( 1-0 by Wolves on September 26). Their home record in all competitions is W5 D8 L1 and their only other blank was a goalless draw against West Ham just before the Wolves defeat.

West Ham’s recent form is behind Southampton’s but not by much as they continue their challenge for a Champions League place as well as knockout success in both the FA Cup and Europa League.

The Hammers had a blip in mid-January with back-to-back league defeats against Leeds and Manchester United but those are their only losses in the last 11 in all competitions since the Southampton defeat on Boxing Day.

Southampton’s draw rate is high at home but most of their wins have come in their recent run of good form (three out of five since the turn of the year).

The odds probably should be closer and on that basis West Ham rate the better value at 3.259/4.

Bearing in mind the tightness of the match, the selection is West Ham on draw no bet at 2.3211/8.

The league fixture between these teams at St Mary’s ended goalless but that was a rare blank for either side.

Southampton have scored in their last 11 home matches in all competitions and it is worth noting that both teams have scored in seven of those 11 games, although only three of the 11 went over 2.5 goals.

West Ham have scored in 12 of their last 13 games in all competitions (the exception was a 1-0 defeat at Manchester United in January).

The Hammers lead the Premier League for matches where both teams scored (17 out of 27) and Southampton are close behind (16 out of 26).

That makes both teams to score well worth considering at 1.738/11.