Chloe uses Infogol stats to make correct score predictions for every game in Serie A this weekend as the action continues in Italy’s top flight.
Inter lost to Lazio last weekend but are undefeated in their last 20 home matches, while Juventus have notched four consecutive 1-0 victories in all competitions.
Toro turn around?
Torino v Genoa
Friday October 22, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 2
Torino are undefeated in their last 10 home matches against Genoa in all competitions, with their last loss to the Grifone in any game coming in May 2017. Since then they have recorded seven wins and two draws, and Toro will be hoping that the fixture turns around their recent fortunes. They have not won any of their last four Serie A matches, but they have faced Sassuolo, Napoli and Juventus over that period, while Genoa have won just once so far this term and have conceded at least two goals in seven of their eight matches thus far.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 2-1 @ 8.07/1
Goals galore?
Sampdoria v Spezia
Friday October 22, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2
This game could be surprisingly high-scoring, as there have been over 2.5 goals scored in 19 of Spezia’s last 22 away games and over 2.5 goals in each of Samp’s last six outings in Serie A. It has largely been down to poor defending however, with Sampdoria having conceded at least three goals in each of their last four matches, while Spezia have conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 12 away games. ‘Doria should come out on top, with the Infogol model giving their opponents here just a 25% chance of winning the match at Marassi.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 3-1 @ 11.010/1
Salernitana struggling
Salernitana v Empoli
Saturday October 23, 14:00
Another huge clash at the bottom of the table as two of the newly promoted sides meet at the Stadio Arechi. The home side have managed just one win and one draw so far this season, while the visitors won two in a row before losing to Roma and Atalanta in their last two outings. The Infogol model gives Salernitana just a 40% chance of winning this match, and given that Empoli have taken care of business against the division’s poorer terms, backing them to win seems like the wisest choice.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back the 0-1 @ 10.09/1
Neroverdi nerves
Sassuolo v Venezia
Saturday October 23, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2
With eight points each, these two teams surprisingly sit level in the Serie A table after eight games. Sassuolo looked way off their usual pace when they were held to a draw by Genoa last time out, while Venezia will take a huge confidence boost from their victory over Fiorentina on Monday night. The Infogol model strongly suggests the home side will emerge with the points here, giving Venezia only a 12% chance of victory, meaning the result also represents good value.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back the 1-0 @ 8.07/1
Bologna v AC Milan
Saturday October 23, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Milan have won eight of their last nine Serie A matches and boast a superb recent record against Bologna, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides. The Rossoneri have been leading at both HT and FT in the last five of those encounters, and the Infogol model gives them a 54% chance of claiming another victory here.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 1-2 @ 8.07/1
Atalanta v Udinese
Sunday October 24, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Desperately unlucky at Old Trafford in midweek, Atalanta will be looking to bounce back when they welcome Udinese to the Gewiss Stadium on Sunday. The home side have lost just one of their last five league games, scoring two or more goals in the last four of those encounters, while Udinese have not won any of their last five games. The Infogol model gives Atalanta a 72% chance of victory, while also giving a 60% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals in this clash.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 3-1 @ 10.09/1
Viola need a victory
Fiorentina v Cagliari
Sunday October 24, 14:00
Live on BT Sport Extra
After losing to Venezia on Monday, Fiorentina need to bounce back quickly if they are to maintain the momentum of their good start to the season. Prior to that defeat, only Inter, Napoli and Roma had managed to beat La Viola, and Vincenzo Italiano will be seeking a reaction from his players. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in each of Fiorentina’s last three home games in Serie A, while Cagliari – who sit 19th in the table ahead of this weekend’s matches – have conceded at least twice in each of their last three away matches.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 2-1 @ 7.513/2
Hellas Verona v Lazio
Sunday October 24, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3
With just two wins so far this season, it is not surprising to learn that only Spezia (20) and Genoa (18) have conceded more goals than Hellas (17) after eight games. However, only four teams have scored more Serie A goals than the tally of 17 managed by Gialloblu in 2021/22. Lazio are one of those teams, and arrive at this clash having beaten Inter last weekend, so this could well be a high scoring affair with the Biancocelesti likely to emerge with all three points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 1-3 @ 14.013/1
Capital clash
AS Roma v Napoli
Sunday October 24, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2
A truly tense clash here as the visitors put their 100% Serie A record on the line against Jose Mourinho’s Roma in the Italian capital. Something has to give as Napoli have scored 2+ goals in their last eight away games – and won all eight of them – face a Giallorossi outfit who have claimed victory in each of their last five home games. It could well be a low scoring affair, with two of the four best defences in Italy going head-to-head, making the under 2.5 goals market an attractive prospect.
BTTS? No.
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back the 0-1 @ 11.010/1
Derby d’Italia never disappoints
Inter v Juventus
Sunday October 24, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
The biggest clash of the weekend is undoubtedly the last one, champions Inter hosting their rivals Juventus in the “Derby of Italy.” The home side lost to Lazio last weekend but are undefeated in their last 20 home matches, while the visitors have notched four consecutive 1-0 victories in all competitions. This will certainly be a tense affair, and it is worth noting that in their last six meetings at San Siro, the two sides have managed just one clean sheet between them.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back the 1-2 @ 11.010/1
Source: BetFair Tips