And so, after some minor skirmishes around Europe, the best League in the world finally gets underway this weekend, and once again, finding a bet in the Serie A outright market looks difficult.
There was a time when Juventus could be backed at odds against, and we jumped in, but in recent seasons the world has caught up, and the Champions can only be backed at [1.55] to retain their title yet again. Nine in a row remains the likeliest outcome in May, and I wouldn’t blame you for climbing onto that short-priced bandwagon.
I feel duty bound not to tip Juve at that price, as it seems an increasingly obvious call, and it doesn’t feel as if that’s what I’m here for, but I can’t, with a straight face anyway, tip anyone else in the outright market, as several houses don’t seem to be in order.
Not convinced by Lukaku signing
At the end of last season, I thought that Antonio Conte’s appointment at Inter would give them a real chance of the title, as his pedigree and ability to sort out a fractious dressing room could prove critical. I’m glad for Inter that Ivan Perisic has left, happy that the names of Diego Godin, Nicolò Barella and Stefano Sensi will be appearing on Conte’s teamsheets, but less sure about Romelu Lukaku and, at the time of writing, the future and disruptive presence of Mauro Icardi.
If everything were to go right for Conte and Inter, then they could challenge. They start with three winnable games, but then have a mighty tough September and October, and I can’t see them getting it together quickly enough to navigate those early months. I’ll be fascinated to see how Conte does, yet will have to ignore them as a betting proposition.
Napoli have finished as runners-up to Juve in four of the last five seasons, and seemed close last week to landing Icardi, who could be a perfect fit for them. That now appears to be unlikely, and they look a little light, even though Adam Ounas will be like a new signing after his Cup of Nations brilliance, and Kostas Manolas and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are excellent additions.
Carlo Ancelotti took too long last season to get his message across, Napoli lost too much ground early, and if they can start well this season, then they are not without hope. It’s hard, though, to see a lightweight looking squad challenging Juve for an entire season.
Milan could surprise
Milan have been written off by most, but I’m a big fan of Marco Giampaolo, and I like their recruitment. Ismael Bennacer could be one of the unlikely stars of the season, and Giampaolo has built a hard-working team in his image, forgoing star quality for actual quality – they could be the real overperformers among those a level below Juve.
Lazio look stale, which leaves us with a Roma team who’ll be guided this season by Paulo Fonseca. They, too, have recruited well, with Amadou Diawara and Gianluca Mancini joining Leo Spinazzola and Jordan Veretout. Fonseca has pedigree, but Roma look awfully light up front, and even though Edin Dzeko has agreed to stay after a protracted transfer saga, it’s hard to see them being their traditional high-scoring selves. Milan, at least, have Krzysztof Piatek to bail them out if things aren’t going well.
There’s not much to say about Juventus, although I think that Maurizio Sarri is a risk and there’s every chance that they won’t be as strong as in previous seasons. I’d ignore them for the Champions League, but the problem in Serie A is that, even if Juve stumble a little, I’m not convinced that any of the challengers are good enough to get past them. If this Juve team was starting that 2017-18 season, then I’d be tipping Sarri and Napoli to win the League, but there’s no one of that quality to take advantage of a potential, even likely, slip.
The way I see the League ending up is that Juve will be Champions, maybe a little less comfortably than last season, Napoli will come closest, and then Milan and Giampaolo, with focus firmly on the League, may be the ones to outlast the rest.
I’ll ignore Inter as I can see that being a confusing club to play for this season, although they’ll likely finish in the top four, with Roma in fifth, after looking great until they reach the final third. Atalanta will always be a beautiful memory, but I can’t see them sustaining their success this season, much though I’d love them to.
So Back Juve at a short price if you like, but I’ll be backing Napoli in the market without them at [11/10], and Milan for a top 4 finish at [5/4].
Another shock Golden Boot winner?
In terms of Capocannoniere, won extraordinarily by Fabio Quagliarella last season, could we be set for another shock? If we are, then Francesco Caputo at Sassuolo could be the one to take a second look at – outstanding for Empoli last season, always full of goals, newly arrived at a Sassuolo team who may well overperform this season. Of the big names, despite the worry about second season syndrome, Piatek is the one for me.
It may be a procession again, but Serie A will once again be glorious fun for the next nine months, and we’ll be looking for another profitable season.
Source: BetFair Tips
