Paul Higham says Sevilla can get the victory they need at RB Salzburg to get through to the last 16 of the Champions League.
“Salzburg have lost three of their last fou rhome games against Spanish sides, and seven of Sevilla’s last eight wins have come with a clean sheet.”
RB Salzburg v Sevilla
Wednesday 8 December 20:00 kick-off
Live on BT Sport Extra
Stuttering Salzburg just need a draw
With just three points separating all four teams in a thrilling Group G there’s everything to play for in this most open of Champions League groups and one for the calculators on Wednesday night.
Put simply, it’s win and in for all four teams here, although with the more advanced permutations Lille and Salzburg just need a draw while Wolfsburg and Sevilla really do need all three points to progress.
And for RB Salzburg although they’re at home and have that safety net of being able to draw it’s a tightrope they will have to walk between defence and attack – plus the feeling they should already have qualification in the bag.
All their seven points came from their first three games before defeats to Wolfsburg and Lille now leaves them with work to do against the dangerous Spaniards.
Salzburg are also in poor form with just two wins in seven in all competitions so confidence won’t be at their highest for what could be a nervy night.
Sevilla have to go for broke
Sevilla kicked off the Champions League with three straight draws, and only got their first win in the group last time out against Wolfsburg that kept them in the running for the last 16.
They’re an experienced European side these days having made it out of the group stages of either the Champions League or Europa League for the last five consecutive seasons.
Sevilla are also a fine away side, having gone eight straight away games in the Champions League without defeat, but they’ve drawn more of those (five) than they’ve won (three) so they’ll need more of an attacking gameplan with a win the only option in this game.
Defence is the best form of attack for Sevilla coach Julen Lopetegui though, and with five clean sheets in their last eight in all likelihood they’ll look to keep it tight and pinch a goal or two on the break.
Sevilla favourites to sink Salzburg
Salzburg have an almost 100 percent record at home in all competitions this season, winning 11 and drawing one of their 12 contests at the Red Bull Arena including two games in the Champions League.
The hosts were favourites for all of those games though, but it’s Sevilla who are fancied to win this one at 2.56/4 while the Austrians are 3.185/40 to earn another home win and the draw, which is all Salzburg need, priced at 3.55/2.
Salzburg have lost three of their last four home games against Spanish opposition, with the extra guile and know-how from La Liga sides just proving too cunning for the Austrian side.
There are usually plenty of goals in Salzburg home games and they scored two against French champions Lille and three against Wolfsburg, but this is a step up in class, plus they don’t have that urgency of needing to go all out for the victory.
Back Sevilla to scrape it
Sevilla’s ability to keep clean sheets and counter-attacking style spells danger so the game state here can go up against recent stats and produce under 2.5 goals despite it being the outsider of the two at 2.111/10.
And if you’re backing a Sevilla victory, couple it with a clean sheet at 4.67/2 as seven of their last eight victories have come without the opposition finding the net.
Goals haven’t exactly been flowing for Sevilla, but when they do Lucas Ocampos has been the man supplying them with five in his last eight games in all competitions.
It’s usually a vital goal too as he’s bagged either the first or only goal in four of his last seven so while he’s a nice price at 3.814/5 to score anytime he’s a big 9.08/1 to score first given his recent run of opening the scoring.
Source: BetFair Tips
