Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as north London’s big two face differing tasks…
“Brentford’s away form this season hasn’t been the best, with a 1.87 xGA average, and they’re unlikely to feel confident against an Arsenal side who have been hard to break down at the Emirates Stadium.”
West Ham to end Newcastle’s mini-recovery
West Ham United v Newcastle United
Saturday, 12:30
Newcastle’s nine points from nine have relied in part on them getting the little breaks, but it’s not a great deal more than what their underlying numbers point to. Opponents West Ham remain better at home than on the road, though, and Infogol’s model gives the upper hand to David Moyes’ side after their own recent deserved victories against Newcastle’s fellow strugglers Norwich and Watford.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Arsenal to claim derby victory
Arsenal v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00
Brentford’s away form this season hasn’t been the best, with a 1.87 xGA average, and they’re unlikely to feel confident against an Arsenal side who have been hard to break down at the Emirates Stadium. Infogol backs the hosts in this one, as they aim to avenge their opening day defeat to the Bees and remain healthy in the race for a top-four finish.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Villa to plunge Watford further into danger
Aston Villa v Watford
Saturday, 15:00
Despite a tough run of form, Villa have by and large continued to create chances, especially on home soil. They will feel confident against struggling Watford, who have tightened up defensively under Roy Hodgson but have yet to score under their new manager, and Infogol backs Steven Gerrard to get the better of a man who briefly took charge of him at Liverpool over a decade ago.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2
Burnley’s away misery to continue
Brighton & Hove Albion v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00
Burnley are still yet to win an away league game this season, with their 0.87 xGF average a factor, and they’re unlikely to find things easy against a Brighton side who are tough to break down at the best of times. Sean Dyche’s side were unfortunate to lose the reverse fixture back in August, but Infogol’s model believes Graham Potter will lead his team to a second straight home victory.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.207/1
Chelsea to prepare for Champions League with a win
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Saturday, 15:00
Sandwiched between Chelsea’s Club World Cup win and the resumption of their Champions League title defence is a trip to Selhurst Park, and they’ll need to adapt quickly against opponents whose underlying home numbers probably deserve better. However, Patrick Vieira’s hosts haven’t been at their best of late, and the travelling Blues are still expected to have too much in a tightly-fought derby.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 8.6015/2
Liverpool to brush Norwich to one side
Liverpool v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00
Liverpool have already recorded a pair of 3-0 victories at Carrow Road this season, and now have the first of two home meetings with the Canaries after also drawing them in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Jürgen Klopp’s hosts have the league’s best xGF return – both at home and overall – and even a hangover from their midweek European exploits is unlikely to hold them back.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 4-0 @ 15/2
In-form Southampton to sneak win
Southampton v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
Southampton have been in fine form lately in league and cup, losing just one of their last 10, and Infogol backs them to extend their impressive run against Everton. Frank Lampard has got his new side playing better stuff at home, but questions remain away from Goodison Park where the Toffees have won just one of their 11 outings while conceding nearly two goals per game.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Man City to avenge opening weekend loss
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 17:30
Manchester City could be forgiven for still being upset about their defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when they somehow failed to find a way through, but victory over the same opponents in Manchester should set things right. Spurs come into the game off the back of three successive league defeats, none of which they can feel too hard done by, and Infogol backs City to make it four.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Man Utd to stay fourth with away win
Leeds United v Manchester United
Sunday, 14:00
Leeds’ defensive displays across their last four games, with an average of 2.02 xGA, doesn’t bode well against opponents who put five past them back in August. Ralf Rangnick’s visitors have blown hot and cold lately, at least when it comes to results, but this is one where Infogol’s model backs them to turn improving numbers into improving results on the pitch.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Wolves to prolong Leicester’s misery
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leicester City
Sunday, 16:30
After falling just short of a first win in five last weekend, Leicester may well be dreading their trip to Molineux. By the time the game kicks off, Wolves will be aware of what’s needed of them as they aim to continue a European push, and Bruno Lage’s side can take encouragement from last week’s win at Spurs to get revenge on the Foxes for a frustrating opening-day defeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Source: BetFair Tips
