Premier League xG Tips: Man Utd and Spurs make top four case in gameweek 25

“Man Utd shouldn’t be too worried after successive poor results, with the team still creating plenty of presentable chances, but the threat posed by Southampton at the other end means they shouldn’t feel assured of victory.”

Man Utd to return to winning ways

Manchester United v Southampton
Saturday, 12:30

Man Utd shouldn’t be too worried after successive poor results, with the team still creating plenty of presentable chances, but the threat posed by Southampton at the other end means they shouldn’t feel assured of victory. The visitors were good value for their midweek win at Tottenham, though a leaky defence away from home – in real and expected terms – is something the home side will be aiming to capitalise on.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Brentford to earn crucial derby win

Brentford v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00

A run of five straight defeats has left Brentford in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle, but Infogol’s model backs Thomas Frank’s side to pull away from danger with a win on Saturday. Frank’s men have been far stronger at home than away, averaging 1.63 xGF per game, and go up against a Palace side whose impressive cup games have helped mask some worrying league form of their own.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 14.50

Everton to close gap on Leeds

Everton v Leeds United
Saturday, 15:00

Frank Lampard learned the size of his task with a defeat at Newcastle in which he lost two starters to first-half injuries, and the former Chelsea manager will need a quick response from his charges. Leeds themselves have survived some absences to sit four points clear of Saturday’s opponents, but Infogol backs the hosts to just about sneak a result at Goodison Park.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Watford’s winless streak to continue

Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00

Watford have already tightened up defensively under Roy Hodgson, but a lack of goals remains an issue with the Hornets scoring just once across their last five league games. A return for Ismaila Sarr could help, but Infogol’s model still backs visitors Brighton to claim all three points and complete the double over opponents who they beat 2-0 back in August when Xisco was still Watford boss.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 12.0011/1

Man City to cut short Norwich revival

Norwich City v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

This is not one of the games Norwich will have earmarked as the most winnable, but the momentum of their last few games means they can’t entirely be ruled out, even against the champions. City will still be favourites, though, with an away average of 2.25 xGF setting them up well for a first trip to Carrow Road since a surprise 3-2 defeat back in September 2019.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 7.807/1

Liverpool to come through Burnley challenge

Burnley v Liverpool
Sunday, 14:00

Three straight draws have kept Burnley’s survival hopes alive, and a home average of 1.29 xGA per game isn’t too bad compared to those around them, but Infogol doesn’t expect Sean Dyche’s side to get anything from a Liverpool side whose away threat has shown no sign of dissipating. If Dyche’s men are to survive, it’s more likely to be be down to their ability to pick up points against weaker opponents, so defeat here wouldn’t be the end of the world.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Newcastle to continue push towards safety

Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Sunday, 14:00

Back-to-back wins have lifted Newcastle out of immediate danger, but a third on the spin could be priceless. Eddie Howe has got his side creating chances, with the arrival of Chris Wood far from the only factor, and the Magpies could welcome further new arrivals to the starting XI as they host a Villa side whose 1.75 xGA average across their last five league games may worry Steven Gerrard.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Spurs to best Wolves in clash of European hopefuls

Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 14:00

Spurs remain very much in the top-four hunt despite their midweek setback, but another loss at home to Wolves could be hugely damaging. Antonio Conte’s team won the reverse fixture when Nuno was still in charge, and this could be another close contest decided by a single goal, but with both sides in better shape now Infogol favours the hosts to cling to victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Leicester to dent West Ham’s top-four hopes

Leicester City v West Ham United
Sunday, 16:30

While Leicester haven’t been convincing or predictable all season, Infogol’s model expects them to overcome a West Ham side whose away defensive numbers look unsustainable when compared to their xGA. The Hammers have won the last three meetings between the sides but lost the two before then, and they’re narrow underdogs in.a game where defeat would further damage their fragile top-four aspirations.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2