Premier League xG Tips: Liverpool and City to stay in charge in Gameweek 28

“Liverpool’s loss at West Ham in November was a bitter pill to swallow, but Jürgen Klopp’s side remain unbeaten at Anfield this term and wrapped up their first trophy of the campaign by beating Chelsea in the Carabao Cup final.”

Marsch to taste defeat in first Leeds game

Leicester City v Leeds United
Saturday, 12:30

New manager Jesse Marsch has 12 games to keep Leeds United in the Premier League, but he won’t love the fact that the first comes against a Leicester side with three wins from their last four in all competitions. The visitors averaged 2.32 xGA per game under Marcelo Bielsa this season, and the new boss is likely to be up against it as he attempts to tighten things up defensively.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Villa to end Southampton’s unbeaten run

Aston Villa v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00

Southampton got the better of Villa when the two sides met at St Mary’s earlier in the season, but Steven Gerrard’s side have improved since that autumn meeting and Infogol favours them to gain revenge on Saturday. It looks like being a close-run games, with the hosts given a 39% chance of victory compared to their opponents’ 35, but a home win would stop the Saints’ unbeaten league run at five games.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Chelsea to deal Burnley survival blow

Burnley v Chelsea
Saturday, 15:00

Burnley missed a chance to climb out of the bottom three in midweek, but the loss of Ben Mee to injury could be a bigger concern than the scoreline against Leicester City. Visitors Chelsea will need a quick response after losing the Carabao Cup final, but Infogol backs Thomas Tuchel’s side to build on a 1.06 xGA away average which is among the best in the entire Premier League.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 11.0010/1

Brighton to stop in-form Newcastle

Newcastle United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00

Newcastle prolonged their unbeaten run with a win at Brentford last weekend, though they were playing with an extra man for 80 minutes. The form table suggests they at least have a shot against Brighton, who are winless and scoreless in three, but Infogol’s model still gives Graham Potter’s team a slight edge against opponents who they took a point from at the Amex Stadium in November.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.0014/1

Brentford to rebound in six-pointer

Norwich City v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00

The aforementioned defeat to Newcastle will have stung for Thomas Frank’s Bees, but the debut of Christian Eriksen was a positive for the London side as they prepare for another huge game against relegation rivals. It’s another reunion with Frank for former Brentford boss Dean Smith, who drew 1-1 with his former side when he was in charge at Aston Villa, but the numbers point to an away win here.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1

Wolves to return to winning ways

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00

Successive league losses have dealt what could be a fatal blow to Wolves’ top-four hopes, but they’ll hope to get a win under their belts against a Palace side who are coming off a tough midweek test in the FA Cup. Bruno Lage’s side have underwhelmed at home this term, scoring just 10 goals from 15.8 xGF, but they should just about have enough against a Palace side averaging 1.68 xGA per game on their travels.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Liverpool to kick on after first trophy

Liverpool v West Ham United
Saturday, 17:30

Liverpool’s loss at West Ham in November was a bitter pill to swallow, but Jürgen Klopp’s side remain unbeaten at Anfield this term and wrapped up their first trophy of the campaign by beating Chelsea in the Carabao Cup final. The Hammers haven’t lost any of their last four in the league, but an average of just 1.11 xGF per game across that run shouldn’t frighten their opponents too much.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Arsenal to keep up top four pursuit

Watford v Arsenal
Sunday, 14:00

Arsenal’s three successive victories have been a mixed bag, but the Gunners’ attacking impact suggests any one of them could have come by a more convincing scoreline than the trio of one-goal margins. The same was true of their home game against Watford in November, when Mikel Arteta’s side dominated but only scored once, and they could be in for another narrow win against a Watford side whose uptick under Roy Hodgson may have come too late.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

City to end United’s run with derby victory

Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday, 16:30

Man Utd’s eight-game unbeaten run has kept them in Champions League contention, despite some frustrating draws, but that sequence looks like coming to an end as Manchester City attempt to get their title bid back on track after a couple of nervy games. Pep Guardiola’s hosts can point to an extremely stingy 0.68 xGA home average, even after shipping three to Tottenham a fortnight ago, and they enter this game as favourites.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Spurs to keep Everton in trouble

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Monday, 20:00

Everton and Tottenham drew 0-0 earlier in the season when Antonio Conte was still finding his feet as his new club, and the Italian returns to north London chasing an immediate response to his team’s FA Cup elimination. Spurs will have some extra rest, with Everton in cup action on Thursday, and the visitors will have to improve on the league’s worst away record if they want to help their survival hopes.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1