Premier League xG Tips: Chelsea and Spurs to win derbies in Gameweek 34

“Chelsea’s midweek defeat means there’s still work to do to clinch a top four finish, but Thomas Tuchel’s side are still in pole position ahead of the chasing pack.”

Arsenal to keep top four fate in their hands

Arsenal v Manchester United
Saturday, 12:30

Arsenal’s midweek win at Chelsea may have been unexpected but it wasn’t undeserved, and the Gunners now have a chance to put the league’s best home record outside the top two to good use. Mikel Arteta’s side are averaging just 0.98 xGA at the Emirates Stadium, and should feel they can shut out a United side who posted just 0.12 xGF in their humbling midweek loss at Anfield.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Ove
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Villa to end losing streak at Leicester

Leicester City v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00

Villa will hope their lengthy break after losing at home to Spurs can help them refocus and recover, and Infogol makes them narrow favourites to win at the King Power Stadium. Opponents Leicester may have one eye on their upcoming Europa Conference League semi-final, and it’s a chance for Steven Gerrard’s side to pick up some points after underperforming their xG across their run of four straight losses.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

City to continue marching towards title

Manchester City v Watford
Saturday, 15:00

Manchester City have some challenging games between now and the end of the season, but Watford at home is on the easier end of the scale with Infogol giving the league leaders an 84% chance of victory. Pep Guardiola’s side are averaging just 0.69 xGA at home, and the Hornets picking up more points away than at home still looks unlikely to help them at the Etihad.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.206/1

Newcastle to deal Norwich devastating blow

Norwich City v Newcastle United
Saturday, 15:00

Norwich’s failure to take advantage of a red card at Newcastle before the turn of the year was a big missed opportunity, and an inability to beat the Magpies at Carrow Road could push them closer to the drop. Infogol’s model favours the visitors, whose three wins on the spin have come with an average of 0.52 xGA, and a fourth on the spin could even see them end the weekend in the top half.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Spurs to come through derby unscathed

Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 17:30

Tottenham’s defeat last weekend dented what had looked like an unstoppable top four push, and Antonio Conte will be desperate to ensure his team returns to winning ways. The manager will be up against a familiar foe, having managed Brentford star Christian Eriksen at Inter Milan, and Spurs’ ability to claim the points may hinge on how well they can contain the in-form Dane as the Bees look to build after three wins with a 2.08 xGF average.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1

Brighton to dent Saints’ top-half hopes

Brighton & Hove Albion v Southampton
Sunday, 14:00

Sunday’s game at the Amex Stadium is as mid-table as they come, with both hovering around the middle of the pack for a while. Three points would make this Brighton’s best season since returning to the top-flight, and Infogol backs Graham Potter’s side to get the job done despite them continuing to underperform their home xG for a large part of the campaign.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Burnley to cling to survival hopes

Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 14:00

Everton’s late equaliser during the week will have hurt Burnley, but if the Clarets are to keep their hopes of survival alive it will be thanks to their home form. Their underlying numbers have been far stronger at home than on the road, and Infogol’s model backs the managerless hosts to overcome visitors whose own 1.03 xGF away average hasn’t helped their own European charge.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1 or 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

Chelsea to get back on track

Chelsea v West Ham United
Sunday, 14:00

Chelsea’s midweek defeat means there’s still work to do to clinch a top four finish, but Thomas Tuchel’s side are still in pole position ahead of the chasing pack. Opponents West Ham are in the midst of a defensive injury crisis and have the added distraction of a European semi-final next week, but Infogol’s model would back the Blues to claim the points even without those added factors.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Liverpool to cruise to derby victory

Liverpool v Everton
Sunday, 16:30

Infogol makes Liverpool 81% favourites to win the Merseyside Derby, which says a great deal about the gulf between the two sides. The hosts’ unbeaten home record has come with an enviable 0.69 xGA average, while Frank Lampard’s visitors are averaging 1.99 xGA on the road, where they are still waiting for a first point under the former Chelsea manager.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 8.6015/2

Palace to end losing run

Crystal Palace v Leeds United
Monday, 20:00

Palace can feel hard done by after losing at Leicester and Newcastle, and Patrick Vieira’s side have a chance to finish their season strongly as Leeds come to Selhurst Park. The Eagles have averaged just 1.04 xGA at home this season, and a Leeds side with the league’s second-worst xGA record should provide them with plenty of opportunities to get on the scoreboard on Monday night.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1