Alex Keble looks ahead to the 17th round of Premier League matches, predicting Everton can get a result at Man City…
“Injuries to David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne indicate that the Toffees stand a good chance of success.”
Man City v Everton
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Everton’s 0-0 draw at Chelsea and last-minute 1-0 defeat at Liverpool proved that Marco Silva’s positional coaching is beginning to take effect; he will once again deploy a deep-lying 4-4-1-1 this weekend, aimed at denying space in the centre of the park and counter-attacking via Andre Gomes and Richarlison. Injuries to David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne indicate that the Toffees stand a good chance of success.
Assuming they use the same system as at Stamford Bridge and Anfield, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Richarlison will leave the centre-backs free and instead block passing lines into Ilkay Gundogan, Fernandinho, and Bernardo Silva. This extra layer of defensive cover frustrated Liverpool and Chelsea, but should be especially successful against a City team relying on two backup midfielders who tend to drift too far from their base position. Bernardo Silva increasingly runs to the right to join Riyad Mahrez, which is fine when David Silva is free to circulate the ball – but not when Gundogan is asked to control the game.
Fernandinho also faces a late fitness test, further denting a City midfield that faces the daunting prospect of Idrissa Gueye and Gomes. Gueye’s athleticism will make it tough for Silva and Gundogan, while Gomes’s technical ability in tight spaces means the Toffees are likely to evade City’s press and counter successfully. Ordinarily we would expect City to win the midfield battle, but injuries have handed the visitors a rare opportunity.
Huddersfield v Newcastle
Saturday, 15:00
One of the most important six-pointers of the season takes place this weekend between two relegation candidates who only tend to win points against fellow strugglers. The injuries and suspensions are stacking up for Rafael Benitez, leaving his side particularly vulnerable on the flanks, and so Alex Pritchard holds the key to winning set-pieces for the home side.
Six of Huddersfield’s 10 goals scored in the Premier League this campaign have been set-pieces, and although their dead ball specialist Aaron Mooy is out for the season this remains their most likely source of a goal. Consequently, Pritchard – roaming freely across the width of the final third and collecting passes from Philip Billing and Jonathan Hogg – must confront Newcastle’s weakened full-backs.
Injuries and suspensions mean the Magpies will have to resort to playing left-back Javier Manquillo at right-back and Paul Dummett, just back from injury, on the other side. Pritchard and Chris Lowe average 8.9 crosses per match between them; their deliveries on Saturday should beat the first man and win Huddersfield crucial set-pieces.
Fulham v West Ham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1
West Ham have won each of their last three league matches and scored nine goals in the process, a testament to the rhythm Manuel Pellegrini has found in a 4-4-2 formation that gets the best out of Robert Snodgrass and Felipe Anderson. Both players cut in from wide positions to cause trouble in the half-spaces – which will make Claudio Ranieri very nervous.
Fulham remain porous in the middle despite Callum Chambers’ form, while their narrow shell at Old Trafford last weekend showed how difficult they are finding the transition from possession football to counter-attacking. Man Utd dominated the flanks by getting Diogo Dalot and Ashley Young on the ball as quickly as possible, and as these two drove towards the byline Fulham simply backed off.
Against Anderson and Snodgrass, a similar approach will be disastrous; since going to a 4-4-2 West Ham’s forwards have started making strong runs on the shoulder of the last defender for the two wingers to find (either with through balls or crosses). West Ham’s directness will probably lead to Fulham crumbling again, forming a hunched block on the edge of the box that allows the wingers to pick out Javier Hernandez and Lucas Perez.
Liverpool v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
There are plenty of reasons to believe that Liverpool – back to their rampant best against Bournemouth and Napoli – will beat a Manchester United side continually struggling for coherence under Jose Mourinho. They are yet to win against a ‘big six’ club so far this season, and were outplayed in defeats to Spurs and Manchester City and in the 2-2 draw at Chelsea. It is easy to imagine Georginio Wijnaldum flitting around a static Nemanja Matic or Sadio Mane pinning back the inexperienced Diogo Dalot – but there is one key battle that particularly stands out.
Mohamed Salah was brilliant in midweek after his hat-trick against Bournemouth. His close control and dribbling speed have returned, as we witnessed when he left Kalidou Koulibaly for dead before scoring the winner on Tuesday. Steve Cook couldn’t even bring him down by standing on his ankle: Salah is unplayable again.
This makes his match-up with Phil Jones and Ashley Young very worrying from a United perspective. Jones is prone to being caught flat-footed, meaning he will surely get beaten on several occasions, while Young doesn’t have the speed to cover effectively.
Source: BetFair Tips
