Blues to scrape past Palace
Leicester to edge thriller
Leicester vs West Ham
Sunday, 12:00
Leicester made a statement with their victory last weekend, as they romped to a 5-2 success at Manchester City to make it three wins from three. They have been excellent so far, and have won an incredible five penalties so far – none of which have been awarded for a handball. Averaging 2.4 xGF pg, they are a potent side, but are gettable defensively, having conceded twice in each of their last two games. West Ham were also emphatic winners at home to Wolves last weekend, shocking everyone by winning 4-0 in a comfortable and deserved fashion (xG: WHU 2.7 – 0.6 WOL). That followed an unfortunate defeat at Arsenal after a good performance (xG: ARS 1.3 – 2.3 WHU), so there are signs that the Hammers are clicking, especially in attack. The Foxes are taken to prevail here (60%), but we should see goals (62% O2.5, 58% BTTS) – 3-1.
No respite for Baggies
Southampton vs West Brom
Sunday, 12:00
Southampton got their first win of the season last weekend by beating Burnley in a dull affair, but it was a win that will likely give them plenty of confidence heading into this match. That success followed a 5-2 defeat at home to Tottenham, but even in that game, Southampton looked menacing in attack. West Brom blew a golden opportunity to pick up their first win against Chelsea, conceding three second half goals to draw 3-3. They were clinical in the first half, but non-existent in the second, looking as vulnerable as they did in gameweeks one and two. The Baggies have allowed 3.1 xGA per game so far this season, so Southampton should be able to create plenty and are fancied to win by the model (51% SOU). Given West Brom’s vulnerability, goals are expected (51% O2.5, 53% BTTS) – 3-1.
Low-scoring Gunners win
Arsenal vs Sheffield United
Sunday, 14:00
Arsenal’s comfortable win over Fulham is looking less and less impressive as the season progresses, given Fulham’s shortcomings. The Gunners have underwhelmed in my opinion, being fortunate to beat West Ham before being well-beaten by Liverpool. They continue to struggle to carve out opportunities, having managed created 24 chances in three league games this season. Sheffield United have been backed into third favourites for the drop, but that looks like an overreaction to me. Performances against Villa and Leeds haven’t been bad at all, especially defensively, and they can frustrate Arsenal here. Let’s not forget that they conceded only 39 times in 38 games last season, and went unbeaten against the Gunners (1-0, 1-1). Having said all of that, the model makes Arsenal 52% favourites to win this one, though we are not expecting a blowout (55% U2.5, 53% BTTS ‘no’) – 1-0.
Wolves to add to Fulham woes
Wolves vs Fulham
Sunday, 14:00
Wolves have been uncharacteristically poor in their last two matches, conceding seven goals against Manchester City and West Ham and allowing 4.9 xGA. I suspect that they will be better this weekend, and Fulham are a great opponent for them to get back on track. Scott Parker’s side have been tremendously poor defensively across their three games, conceding 10 times, but they have been equally as bad in attack (0.9 xGF pg). It could well be a long season for the Cottagers, and the model gives Wolves a whopping 72% chance of inflicting another defeat on Fulham, though few goals are expected (53% U2.5, 65% BTTS ‘no’) – 2-0.
Long week to take its toll on Spurs
Manchester United vs Tottenham
Sunday, 16:30
Manchester United have been far from convincing so far this season, getting comfortably beaten by Crystal Palace before needing a very late, controversial penalty to get past Brighton. They have been second best in both based on xG, but will be better for the games after having no pre-season and finishing 19/20 late. Defensively they have looked poor, but in attack they boast obvious threats. Tottenham have been dealt a tough hand with the fixture list to start the season, with this being their fourth game in a week. They were extremely unfortunate to only draw at home to Newcastle last weekend, but it was the second game in a row that they did create plenty of opportunities after hitting Southampton for five (xG: SOU 2.2 – 2.5 TOT). Jose Mourinho’s side did look vulnerable in their games against Everton and the Saints though, and could be cooked coming into this after a Thursday night Europa League clash. The Infogol model likes Man Utd’s chances of getting a second win of the season on Sunday (56%), with goals expected at Old Trafford (56% O2.5, 55% BTTS) – 2-1.
Champs to keep on winning
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Sunday, 19:30
Aston Villa have looked really strong so far this season, but there are caveats to both of their victories. Sheffield United were reduced to 10-men after 12 minutes in their opener, and their second game was against Fulham, so this will be a big step up. After this game we will have a better idea about how good they are. Liverpool have had a tough opening schedule and come through with flying colours. They were exceptional against Arsenal on Monday night, being dominant from start to finish, and Jurgen Klopp’s men have since been backed into odds on favourites for the Premier League title. The Reds should prove too strong again on Sunday (61%), with goals expected as the Liverpool front line look electric (61% O2.5). We do think Villa will notch though (57% BTTS) – 1-3.
For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net
Source: BetFair Tips
