No restart win for Norwich
Wolves to beat Hammers
West Ham vs Wolves
Saturday, 17:30
West Ham were showing very small signs of improvements prior to the break, but remain above the drop zone on goal difference. Their process has been poor all season long, and that applies to home games too (1.6 xGF, 1.9 xGA per game), where they have been defensively vulnerable. Wolves are in the hunt for Europe yet again, and that isn’t a surprise, ranking as the fourth best team in the league on xG. They are excellent on the road (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), and will have been extremely glad of the break given their hectic schedule with Europa League commitments. We think Wolves have a great chance of winning here (58%), and given West Ham’s defensive issues, goals should flow (61% O2.5, 59% BTTS) – 1-3.
Narrow and much-needed win for Cherries
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 19:45
Bournemouth went into the break in the bottom three on goal difference, having performed poorly all season long. The Cherries are much better at home (1.4 xGF, 1.7 xGA per game) though than on the road, and this is a huge game given the tough schedule they have coming up.
Crystal Palace are in a cushty position in mid-table following three straight 1-0 wins before the break, but their process has been poor all season long, especially away from home (1.1 xGF, 2.0 xGA per game). Bournemouth will have to have a go in this game, which should mean we see plenty of goal mouth action (57% O2.5, 57% BTTS), with the model calculating a 45% chance the hosts come out on top – 2-1.
Blades to edge out Newcastle
Newcastle vs Sheffield United
Sunday, 14:00
Newcastle are in a comfortable position in the Premier League, but according to xG they have been the worst team in the league, with their process extremely poor (1.1 xGF, 1.9 xGA per game). Sheff Utd were hard done by on Wednesday against Aston Villa, as they weren’t given what was a clear goal. That draw extended their unbeaten run in the PL to 5, but they need wins if they are to secure European football. They are a more open team than their actual numbers suggest, so we are expecting a more open game than the market, with a 50% chance of O2.5 and a 54% chance of BTTS. The Blades are taken to edge proceedings (40%) – 1-2.
Chelsea to add to Villa woes
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Sunday, 16:15
Aston Villa had a goal-line technology error to thank for coming away with a point against Sheff Utd in midweek, but on the whole it wasn’t a bad performance. However, at home this season they have allowed 2.1 xGA per game, which is a worry heading into a game against a potent attack. Chelsea sit fourth heading into this crucial home stretch, and they have impressed all season long according to xG (2.0 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game). They are expected to prove too strong in this game (66%), with goals likely to follow given Villa’s vulnerabilities (64% O2.5, 57% BTTS) – 1-3.
Reds to win at Goodison
Everton vs Liverpool
Sunday, 19:00
Everton are in the bottom half, but have performed like a top six team according to xG this season, and their process has improved greatly since Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment, especially in attack (2.2 xGF per game). Liverpool will win the league, but can’t do it in this game. Jurgen Klopp’s men have been sensational all season long, with their process excellent (2.1 xGF, 1.1 xGA per game), but this is expected to be a tougher game than the market suggests. We make Liverpool 44% favourites to get the win, with goals likely to follow given Everton’s attacking mind-set (61% O2.5, 62% BTTS) – 1-2.
City to win again, but Burnley to notch
Manchester City vs Burnley
Monday, 20:00
Manchester City made light work of Arsenal on Wednesday, with Pep’s side looking in great shape, and extremely solid defensively too (xG: MCI 2.9 – 0.3 ARS). Their process at home is excellent (2.7 xGF, 0.9 xGA per game), so we should see another City win here. Burnley are rightly in mid-table after another solid season at this level, a season in which they have been more adventurous in attack (1.5 xGF per game). They can cause issues for City here in a high-scoring game (71% O2.5, 50% O3.5, 54% BTTS), but one which the hosts win (77% MCI) – 3-1.
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Source: BetFair Tips
