The new Premier League season is little more one week away and, as is tradition, now’s the time to predict how events will unfold over the next nine months and place some outright bets.
But alongside the usual offering of Premier League outrights – Winner, Top Four Finish, Relegation and others – Betfair’s #OddsOnThat feature provides customers with more than 100 accumulator-style Premier League outrights, ranging in price from conservative 4/7s to wild 500/1s.
Here, we pick out the five most enticing Premier League #OddsOnThat markets and explain why each scenario is likely to happen in the 2019/20 season.
Unfortunately the Premier League title race will not be interesting this year. Last season Liverpool rode their luck to keep up with City, relying on fine margins and late goals that meant Jurgen Klopp’s side won 13.5 ‘unexpected points’ according to xG from understat.com. That statistic sometimes means excellent conversion, but when it’s that high it normally means good fortune.
Liverpool won’t hit a club-record 97 points again, but City almost certainly will; they collected 98 last season despite Kevin de Bruyne being mostly absent. His presence in 2019/20, coupled with the addition of Rodri, means Pep Guardiola’s side will surely win the title by at least 10 points.
Sheffield United capitalised on Leeds United’s late collapse last season to gain automatic promotion, and although Chris Wilder is a very talented manager his overachievement in 2018/19 means United stand little chance of avoiding the drop.
Theirs is a Championship quality squad, and judging by the type of signings made so far – notably Phil Jagielka and Ravel Morrison – United’s scouting network isn’t up to much either. Expect a valiant effort, but ultimately they are the most likely of the three promoted clubs to go straight back down.
VAR was first introduced to football to overturn ‘clear and obvious’ errors, but now the technology is available – and now we are endlessly discussing refereeing decisions – it is inevitable that interpretations of the laws change and VAR is relied upon more and more. To judge a slow-motion replay is to fundamentally change the sport; the laws – namely handball – were not written to be scrutinised in this way.
And so the Premier League’s promise that there will be a ‘high bar’ for VAR this season cannot be trusted. Over time, referees will find themselves bowing to pressure to review the action, reacting to the endless whataboutery punditry set to be unleashed this campaign.
Consequently, as in the men’s and women’s World Cups over the last 12 months, there will be a lot more penalties in the Premier League in 2019/20. One per gameweek might sound like a lot, but there were 18 penalties in 52 matches at the World Cup this summer. That’s one in three.
Don’t let the £40 million signing of Joelinton fool you: Newcastle United are in meltdown. There will be fan protests throughout the season as the tedious playing style of Steve Bruce sucks any remaining energy out of St. James’ Park. Their Championship-level team was only kept up because of Rafael Benitez’s brilliance last season, and without Salomon Rondon and Ayoze Perez’s goals – 23 in 2018/19, 55% of Newcastle’s total – Bruce’s side look destined for the drop.
Joelinton is no doubt a talented player, but the 22-year-old Brazilian only scored seven goals in 28 Bundesliga matches last season and, like Miguel Almiron, will need time to adapt to English football. What’s more, Sean Longstaff now has arguably too much pressure on his shoulders following Manchester United’s interest (he’s only started eight league games for the club).
West Ham’s talented trio of attacking midfielders finally have a good striker to feed; Sebastien Haller should link well with Felipe Anderson, Manuel Lanzini, and Andriy Yarmalenko, these latter two hopefully getting more luck with injuries this season.
Manuel Pellegrini’s team should be much improved, then, and yet for this bet to come in they only need to hold onto their tenth-place finish from 2018/19. Even assuming the Big Six, Leicester City, Wolves, and Everton all finish above them, West Ham only need to beat Watford and Southampton to tenth. That shouldn’t be a problem.
Leicester City won 20 points from the 11 matches under Brendan Rodgers last season, the fifth most in the division in that time (and just one point off fourth). With a tournament-free summer to implement his complex tactical methods, Rodgers’s side should be even better this year – and ready to capitalise on chaos among the usual Big Six.
In Youri Tielemans, Jamie Vardy, Harry Maguire, Ben Chilwell, James Maddison, and Wilfried Ndidi Leicester arguably have a stronger core in their first 11 than Arsenal and United. Brilliant scouting over the years has put the Foxes in pole position to break the top four, with Ayoze Perez an astute signing to compliment Vardy and Maddison.
United could be headed for a crisis deeper than under David Moyes. Paul Pogba wants out, the criminally under-rated Ander Herrera (crucial to that brief run of good form following Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s arrival) has gone, and any positivity surrounding their new manager evaporated at the end of last season.
Aside from that stretch of good form in January and February (when United actually won eight ‘unexpected points’ per understat.com), United won a miserable 34 points from 26 league games. The squad is notably worse now than 12 months ago.
Arsenal aren’t in quite as much trouble, but it still seems unlikely they will improve on last season. Losing Aaron Ramsey is a huge blow, while Mesut Ozil remains at the club and the hierarchy have decided to blow the entire budget on a winger when reinforcements are desperately needed in defence. Laurent Koscielny’s tantrum will reverberate around the stadium, and even if Kieran Tierney signs Arsenal will be short of two centre-backs.
It’s unlikely to happen, but as a 100/1 wildcard this is worth a small bet. Leicester’s widely anticipated success means Jamie Vardy can easily hit 20 league goals; the England striker managed 18 last campaign and 10 in the 11 games under Rodgers.
Raheem Sterling scored 17 in 2018/19, and there is no reason to believe he won’t top that figure now De Bruyne is back providing the assists and want-away Leroy Sane is unlikely to rival Sterling for a starting spot.
Marcus Rashford is the riskiest of the three, particularly given United are in danger of a low-scoring and catastrophic season. However, should Paulo Dybala sign up and hit the ground running then the Argentine, who plays just behind a central striker (and Rashford is the only one of these left at the club), can help his team-mate improve on a tally of 10 league goals last season.
Source: BetFair Tips
