Alex Keble provides a tactical preview of big weekend games in the Premier League and puts together a 25/1 acca which includes Liverpool winning big against Southampton…
“David Moyes knows how to create a compact midfield and knows how to sit behind the ball, denying Man City the half-spaces; Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek have the quality to give the home fans a thrilling end to a very successful season.”
Leeds v Brighton
Sunday, 14:00
Leeds United are sleepwalking towards relegation, struggling to find any real defensive cohesion as they transition too quickly away from Marcelo Bielsa’s idiosyncratic – but highly successive – style of pressing. He over-achieved enormously with this team, and Jesse Marsch’s methods have left a mid-table Championship-quality side looking like a mid-table Championship side.
Brighton’s good form is likely to continue at Elland Road because they have found a very fruitful partnership down the left flank – where Leandro Trossard and Marc Cucurella dovetail – and Leeds are without a recognised right-back. Luke Ayling’s red card and Stuart Dallas’s injury means Marsch will probably again start Raphinha at right-wing back in a back five; a system that completely failed against Chelsea.
Brighton tore Manchester United to shreds last weekend thanks to the complexity of Graham Potter’s midfield combinations clashing with the total disarray in the Man Utd team. The same thing can be said for Leeds, with the only difference being considerably less talent in the defensive third. It could be another big win for the visitors.
Everton v Brentford
Sunday, 14:00
Apologies for sounding like a broken record, but Frank Lampard continues to prove that he is only tactically capable at Premier League level if his team sits behind the ball and looks to counter-attack. When they are as progressive and as expansive as he would like, they lose, but retreat into a shell and there is just enough quality in the Everton team to pick up points.
That explains why they could beat Leicester City but not Watford, and it also points to a damaging defeat at Brentford on Sunday. Thomas Frank is not possession-centric but the aggression and directness of his team means they generally like to beat the opponent back. However, Frank sensibly dropped his defensive line significantly for the 0-0 draw with Tottenham Hotspur – and he will know to do the same at Goodison Park.
From here, Lampard may be further out-foxed by the formation. Everton will probably keep the 5-4-1 deployed in each of the last three on the assumption it is best to mirror Brentford, but Frank moved to a 4-3-3 last time out. Brentford’s three on two in central midfield, with Christian Eriksen often the spare man, should give them a platform for victory.
West Ham v Man City
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Manchester City are in stunning form. They have scored 19 goals in their last four Premier League games, but while predictions of stubborn mid-table teams halting their progress have so far been wrong, West Ham United still stand a decent chance. Newcastle United and Wolves were stretched and unwilling to drop, very much already on the beach.
West Ham are fighting for a place in the Europa League and have made London Stadium a tough place to go. David Moyes knows how to create a compact midfield and knows how to sit behind the ball, denying Man City the half-spaces; Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek have the quality to give the home fans a thrilling end to a very successful season.
But part of City’s recent good form has been a renewed capacity to work the ball down the wings, bypassing the need for slow build-up play through Rodri. The chances of West Ham getting a point are slim, yet unlike City’s recent opponents they should at least be able to keep Pep Guardiola’s team quiet for long periods.
Saints v Liverpool
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
If they have any hope of lifting the title Liverpool will travel to Southampton needing to inflict another of those 9-0s, or at least something close to it. The chances are slim, and yet there is no away ground Jurgen Klopp would rather try to do it than St Mary’s; Saints have a habit of completely collapsing against the big clubs.
In a recent 6-0 drubbing against Chelsea Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 4-4-2 was hopelessly wrong. Chelsea dominated the half-spaces via simple passes through the lines from centre-back to an advancing full-back (or central midfielder pulling wide), hitting the gap between those high-pressing wingers and deeper midfielders. Liverpool’s full-backs are superb at taking up these positions.
Chelsea scored twice from these moves, along with twice from unforced Southampton errors and one counter-attack. Again, this is Liverpool’s strength. Their swarming press should lead to more errors at the back, while the rare Southampton attack will only make them more vulnerable to Liverpool breaks.
Source: BetFair Tips
