The Premier League’s big kick-off is fast approaching, and we’ve asked Kevin Hatchard to take a look at some of the market leaders in the Top Goalscorer market.
Harry Kane
23 Premier League goals last season
England skipper Kane is the defending champion, having bashed in 23 Premier League goals last term, which is why Manchester City are trying to lure him to the Etihad Stadium. It’s this transfer tussle that may put bettors off backing him at such a short price – if Tottenham dig in and refuse to sell, will Kane start the season? If a move to City does go through, or if peace is made with Spurs, Kane can surely enhance a record that’s seen him score at least 20 PL goals in five of the last seven campaigns.
Mohamed Salah
22 Premier League goals last season
Liverpool’s chief goal-getter has been remarkably consistent in recent seasons. He was the Golden Boot winner in 2017-18 with 32 top-flight strikes, he shared the award the following season with 22, finished fifth in 2019-20 with 19, and was a goal behind Kane last term. Despite the arrival of Diogo Jota, Salah still expects to start when fit, and has rattled in 13 PL penalties for the Reds. However, Salah could play for Egypt at the African Cup of Nations in January and February, so that’s worth considering.
Danny Ings
12 Premier League goals last season
Although Aston Villa have lost the talismanic Jack Grealish to Manchester City, I still expect them to have an exciting side this term. Leon Bailey will provide skill and pace out wide, while ex-Norwich player Emi Buendia is an assist machine. Manager Dean Smith likes to play on the front foot, and Danny Ings’ arrival from Southampton gives the Villains a ruthless finisher. Ings netted 12 PL goals last term from an Infogol xG figure of 8.73, and netted 22 the previous campaign (xG of 16.79) in a Saints team that largely struggled. He’s worth an each-way punt at 33/1.
Timo Werner
Six Premier League goals last season
You could put together a highlight reel of Timo Werner’s worst misses for Chelsea last term and convince someone that he’s the worst striker in the Premier League. The truth is that he finished his first season with the Blues as a European champion, and started all of the big games. He has always been a streaky finisher, but when he’s hot, he’s really hot. He netted 28 goals for RB Leipzig in his final Bundesliga campaign, so he can score heavily. Even if Romelu Lukaku signs for the Blues, Werner should still start as a wide forward.
Raheem Sterling
10 Premier League goals last season
Sterling showed his quality for England at Euro 2020, and despite suggestions that he underwhelmed for Manchester City, he still scored ten PL goals and started 28 top-flight matches. The previous three PL campaigns saw Sterling score 18, 17 and 20 goals, but the concern is whether competition for places will force him out of the side. Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Riyad Mahrez are all rivals, while Bernardo Silva’s wish to leave may not be granted if no-one can afford him.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
10 Premier League goals last season
While cynics suggested Arsenal’s star striker eased off the accelerator last term after signing a bumper contract, the truth is that the Gabon international’s campaign was heavily disrupted. His mother fell ill, and then he was laid low by a bout of malaria. The former Borussia Dortmund striker still netted ten PL goals, but he had scored 22 in each of the previous two campaigns. His form in pre-season hasn’t been encouraging, and it remains to be seen whether Arsenal can function as a team, but he is still an excellent finisher.
Sadio Mane
11 Premier League goals last season
Liverpool’s title challenge unravelled last term, and Senegalese speedster Mane’s tally of 11 PL goals was well down on his previous two seasons (22 and 18). He still produced some great displays, but the Herculean efforts produced in winning the Champions League and the Premier League seemed to catch up with him. Mane would still expect to be a regular starter, but like his teammate Salah, he may miss a chunk of PL action if he plays at the African Cup of Nations.
Gabriel Jesus
Nine Premier League goals last season
While there’s no doubt that Gabriel Jesus is a talented player with the potential to develop further, City’s pursuit of Harry Kane suggests they have little faith that the Brazilian can be the long-term successor to Sergio Aguero. Jesus failed to reach double-figures last term, despite starting 22 PL games, and he has never scored more than 14 goals in a PL season. It’s also worth considering that Jesus might be offloaded to balance City’s books.
Jamie Vardy
15 Premier League goals last season
The irrepressible Vardy finished seventh in the Golden Boot running last term with a tally of 15 goals, and the 34-year-old started 31 league games. However, the former England international now has serious competition for a starting spot. The prolific Patson Daka has arrived from Salzburg, while Kelechi Iheanacho scored 12 league goals last term and will compete for a place in the XI. Vardy’s excellence from the penalty spot will always give his tally a boost, and he has scored at least 15 PL goals in five of the last six campaigns.
Bruno Fernandes
18 Premier League Goals last season
The Portuguese penalty king netted 18 goals in the Premier League last term, and half of those were from the spot. It is worth considering that changes to refereeing for this season are expected to reduce the number of penalties awarded, so that could have a negative impact on Fernandes’ overall tally. That said, the arrival of Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane is expected to give United a bit more attacking freedom, and Fernandes is still a big goalscoring threat outside of tucking away spot-kicks.
Patrick Bamford
17 Premier League goals last season
The eloquent and thoughtful centre-forward was a revelation for Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United last term, firing in 17 league goals to help the Whites finish ninth. It was the 27-year-old’s best scoring season at any level since he grabbed 17 goals for Middlesbrough in the Championship in 2014/15, and the challenge is to now find consistency. Interestingly, Bamford actually underperformed according to Infogol’s Expected Goals figure, which was 19.34.
Diogo Jota
Nine Premier League goals last season
Portuguese livewire Jota has been a big hit since arriving at Anfield, and scored nine PL goals in 19 appearances during an injury-hit campaign. He is yet to hit double-figures in the English top-flight, and it remains to be seen whether he can secure a starting spot as he competes with the triumvirate of Mane, Salah and Firmino.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
16 Premier League goals last season
Last season was a breakout campaign for Calvert-Lewin, as he whacked in 16 PL goals for Everton and forced his way into the England squad for Euro 2020. He improved significantly under the guidance of Carlo Ancelotti, and the arrival of Rafa Benitez will give him even more tactical tips and tricks. He remains Everton’s attacking spearhead, and should start the vast majority of matches if fit. Interestingly, Calvert-Lewin has underperformed xG in each of the last two campaigns, so he can improve in front of goal.
Edinson Cavani
10 Premier League goals last season
The Uruguayan veteran is United’s only genuine centre-forward, and he showed last term that he still has the desire and ability to affect the game at the age of 34. Cavani scored ten Premier League goals last term (he also got six in the Europa League), and with Jadon Sancho introduced into the starting XI, there’s no reason why the former PSG striker can’t score heavily this term.
Heung-Min Son
17 Premier League goals last season
Given the upheaval surrounding the protracted managerial search and the unedifying decline in Harry Kane’s relationship with the club, Heung-Min Son’s contract extension was a rare piece of good news for Spurs fans. The South Korean star had a career-best tally of 17 Premier League goals last term, and he has hit double-figures in the league in each of the last five campaigns. However, if Kane leaves, Son will lose a connection with a player that has boosted his tallies of goals and assists.
Ivan Toney
33 Championship goals last season
Toney scored more than anyone in the Championship last term, and was top of the charts in League One for Peterborough in the previous campaign. His dizzying tally of 33 goals for Brentford included 11 penalties, but he outperformed xG by more than four goals, reinforcing the idea that he is a natural finisher. He’ll find chances harder to come by in the Premier League, but as a regular starter and the focal point of an attack-minded team, he’s worth considering as an each-way play at the odds.
Patson Daka
27 Austrian Bundesliga goals last season
The Zambian international arrives in England with a glowing reputation as a speedy striker who scores regularly. Daka scored 54 goals in 82 Austrian Bundesliga games for Salzburg, but there is a slight concern over his record in European competition, and he’ll have to battle Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho for a starting place in the Leicester team.
Michail Antonio
10 Premier League goals last season
While there’s no doubt that Michail Antonio has become a very important player for West Ham, he has never scored more than 10 Premier League goals in a single campaign, and he hasn’t managed to get to the 25-start mark in any of the last four top-flight seasons. I’m expecting West Ham to regress slightly after last season’s heroics, so a big goalscoring season from Antonio would be a surprise.
Raul Jimenez
Four Premier League goals last season
After a serious head injury that threatened his career, Mexican striker Jimenez is back to full fitness and raring to go. New Wolves boss Bruno Lage has been taken aback by the speed and completeness of the centre-forward’s recovery, and Jimenez is expected to be a regular starter. Two seasons ago the former Benfica striker banged in 17 PL goals, having netted 13 the season before. The big question is: are Wolves as good now as they were then?
Christian Pulisic
4 Premier League goals last season
A 100/1 shot has placed in 12 of the last 19 Premier League seasons, and if he can force his way into the Chelsea XI and stay fit, the young man known as Captain America can have a big season. Two seasons ago, the former Borussia Dortmund winger scored nine PL goals in 25 appearances, and he was discomfited by injuries last term. I suspect Chelsea will be more of an attacking force this season under Thomas Tuchel, and Pulisic will play his part.
Source: BetFair Tips
