Newcastle v Aston Villa: Villans can push Newcastle back

“Villa have scored in 10 of their 11 matches under Gerrard (the sole exception being the 1-0 defeat at Liverpool) and have notched at least two goals on six occasions, which gives them a good chance against Newcastle’s still suspect defence.” Recommended Bet Back Aston Villa on draw no bet at 1.9420/21

Newcastle on the up

Newcastle climbed out of the relegation zone with Tuesday’s 3-1 home win over fellow strugglers Everton and this is an opportunity to consolidate their uplift in form backed by another raucous full house at St James’ Park.

Eddie Howe’s side are now unbeaten in four Premier League matches, taking eight points out of 12, with only the FA Cup third-round exit at home to League One Cambridge United deflating their new-found buoyancy.

As expected, Newcastle were big spenders in the January transfer window, bringing in Bruno Guimaraes (£40m), Chris Wood (£25m), Kieran Trippier (£15m), Dan Burn (£13m) and Matt Targett on loan from Villa.

Wood is yet to score in three appearances but Trippier got the third against Everton from a direct free-kick.

Guimaraes is in line for his full debut having been a late sub in midweek and so is Burn, although his first job may be to fill in at left-back for Targett, who is ineligible to face his parent club.

Coutinho a class act

Villa, like Newcastle, scored three goals in their midweek home fixture but in their case they had to settle for a point as Leeds came back from two goals down to force a 3-3 draw.

Steven Gerrard’s side are unbeaten in three league matches, having picked up again following a poor Christmas and their FA Cup third-round defeat at Manchester United.

Philippe Coutinho has been a class act since his arrival in January on loan from Barcelona, with two goals and two assists in three appearances, and Lucas Digne is an upgrade on Targett at left-back.

Ezri Konsa serves a one-match ban after his red card against Leeds, with Calum Chambers set to take his place alongside Tyrone Mings in central defence.

The two managers were appointed within days of each other in early November and it is worth comparing their records.

Newcastle are W3 D4 L4 under Howe (1.18pts per game) and Villa are W5 D2 L4 under Gerrard (1.55 ppg) and it is notable in both cases that three of their four defeats have been against top-six sides.

That makes these teams look evenly matched, although Newcastle will hope to tilt the balance with home advantage. Everton manager Frank Lampard said the “hot atmosphere” at St James’ Park had been a factor in his side’s loss on Tuesday night and it is encouraging for Howe that Newcastle’s players responded so positively.

Newcastle’s home record under Howe is W2 D4 L1, with the only defeat being the 4-0 against leaders Manchester City on December 19.

A negative is that the Magpies have conceded in six of their seven home games under Howe (the exception being the 1-0 win over bottom club Burnley) and until Tuesday that had suppressed their win chances.

Villa have scored in 10 of their 11 matches under Gerrard (the sole exception being the 1-0 defeat at Liverpool) and have notched at least two goals on six occasions, which gives them a good chance against Newcastle’s still suspect defence.

Gerrard’s side have taken something from seven of their 10 scoring games and the swift counter-attacking that was evident against Leeds should give them opportunities here.

With the draw factor in mind, the selection is Villa on draw no bet at 1.9420/21.

Goals look likely here with Newcastle rarely keeping a clean sheet and Villa having had over 2.5 goals in seven of their 11 games under Gerrard.

A majority of Newcastle’s games under Howe have been under 2.5 goals (six out of 11) and mainly that is a reflection of their lower scoring, having gone past one goal in just two of those 11 games.

The best goals bet might be both teams to score at 1.715/7. That has happened in six of Newcastle’s 11 games under Howe (including five out of seven at home) and in the same number of Villa’s matches under Gerrard (two out of five away).

With the two sides having been shut out just four times between them in 22 games for their new managers, this match looks like it could open up.

Opta Stat

Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (W6 D6) since a 3-0 loss in April 2005. Each of the last three in the competition between the sides at St James’ Park has finished 1-1. A 1-1 draw is available at 7.413/2.