Leicester City v Watford: Vardy to end his drought against old boss Ranieri

Evans will be needed but Foxes will be boosted by Warsaw win

Leicester defender Jonny Evans will be assessed after pulling out of Thursday’s Europa League victory over Legia Warsaw with a thigh issue. Ricardo Pereira is the another who has been added to the Foxes’ injury list, while James Justin is still time away from a return to full fitness.

Evans was withdrawn late as a precaution ahead of the Thursday game, and it’s been a frustrating season for the Northern Ireland centre-back, who has only played six times in the top flight. Caglar Soyuncu is a better player when Evans is in the side, and he has been somewhat exposed and unsteady without his regular partner, and it’s why Brendan Rodgers’ men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League matches.

Injuries have hit, missing key players for key matches explains not only their inconsistencies in terms of results but also poor starts. Who would have thought the former champions would be facing the possibility of losing three consecutive home league games without scoring for the first time since 1983?

The Europa League 3-1 win was a bit more like it with Ademola Lookman, Harvey Barnes and James Maddison all playing well. It was a more ‘Rodgers-like’ performance in the 4-3-3 press and counter-press – playing their football with more fluidity and able to control the game, but also they defended set-pieces (for once) far better.

The key question will be to translate that to Premier League performance. Their record hasn’t been good at the King Power this term – winning two, losing three, and conceding more goals (10) than they have scored.

Ranieri’s homecoming will be a special occasion

Sacked, but not forgotten reads one headline for the return of Claudio Ranieiri to the King Power for Sunday. The famous 5,000-1 title win in 2016 was a prelude to a Champions League run that was too much to handle and the 70-year-old Italian was relieved of his duties in the following February. Ranieri will be feted like a hero on Sunday as ‘one of them’, and controlling the emotions will be a test in itself for a man who clearly wears his heart on his sleeve with his lovable, genial style.

“Always, I cheered with them,” said the new Watford boss on the eve of Sunday. “Always I feel a little part of them. I am very proud to be part of the Leicester fairytale and the history of the football club. It was an amazing season and the fans were with me from the beginning.”

Rainieri has been dealt a blow losing both Ismaila Sarr and Nicolas Nkoulou to injuries from the Manchester United game, and he’ll feel the absence of Sarr the most. Midfielder Juraj Kucka is available again after serving a one-match ban.

The Foxes have won seven of their 12 matches against Watford in the Premier League and have won all six of their home matches against the Hornets by an aggregate of 12-1, which paints a grim picture if you like following trends. Therefore it’s no surprise the 1.695/7 on offer for a home win wasn’t exactly moving much in terms of a drift on Saturday morning.

Only two points separate the two in terms of league positions, which might give any layers of the hosts some ammunition, so it might be worth waiting to see any late movement on the pink side before kick-off. On a strict reading of positions (12th v 16th), Leicester offer up poor value. I previewed the Brighton match against Newcastle with the Seagulls a similar sort of price, but they didn’t win and proved the market wrong. Leicester have lost their past two home games by an aggregate score of 5-0. The last time they lost three consecutive home league games without scoring was September 1983. That has to be a worry playing at the odds-on price.

Watford’s price is generous, but they are so up and down you never quite know what to expect. In their last four matches, they’ve won 5-2 at Everton and beaten Manchester United 4-1, but they also suffered 1-0 reverses against Watford and Southampton. It makes them very unpredictable, but you will get rewarded at over 4/1 for an away win. They’ve netted victories on the road at Norwich and Everton, but they have lost four. Hit and miss if ever there was a profile.

I’d rather back the hosts to cover the -1 here as they should be value for two goals. We can get 2.8815/8 in the Watford +1 market.

Watford have never previously kept a clean sheet in 20 top-flight meetings with Leicester – it’s the most one team has faced another in top-flight history while conceding in every single meeting. The Over 2.5 price of 1.774/5 is actually not too bad, I have seen worse, and seen shorter for this sort of game. Especially as the hosts have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League matches and are currently on a club top-flight record run of 22 games without a shutout.

Backers of Over 2.5 have collected on eight occasions with Rodgers’ team in the league with Watford and their boom or bust profile on five Over 2.5 games, but if we get a blank first 20 minutes, that might be pushed out to around 1.824/5.

The visitors are currently on a club top-flight record run of 22 games without a clean sheet, but you won’t get rich backing the ‘No’ in the Clean Sheet market at a prohibitive 1.141/7.

Leicester have been starting poorly in games and have conceded early goals against Chelsea, Leeds, Arsenal, Manchester United and Burnley. Ranieri will look to unsettle the hosts (who were booed in the Chelsea match) knowing their slow start to games. It does present a possibility to back-to-lay the visitors at 5.79/2 and trade back, and Opta also highlight this could be an area to play, but only Norwich City (one) have scored the opening goal in fewer Premier League games than Watford this season (three). However, the Hornets have gone on to win all three games in which they’ve scored first.

No side has conceded more Premier League goals from outside the box than Watford this season (5), while all 16 of the Hornets’ goals have been from inside the box. Only Crystal Palace (18) have scored more goals than the Hertfordshire club without any being from outside the area this term, which is an interesting one from Opta. Emmanuel Dennis has hit four and assisted five more in just 11 Premier League appearances, Dennis 1+ Shots On Target in Each Half & Watford 7+ Match Shots On Target is a massive 25/1 on the Sportsbook.

Foxes striker Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games against Watford, with all three of these strikes coming from the penalty spot, and he’s probably the play here as I have been swayed by the odds boost on the Sportsbook with a price push from 5/2 to 3/1.

The 34-year-old has seven in 16 this term, but he’s on a lean spell of without a goal in five, but he didn’t feature on Thursday and will be fresh.

Back Leicester -1 in the Watford +1 market @ 2.8815/8