Dan Fitch thinks that it’s a risk backing Leeds to beat Brentford in their current form, so has set his sights on the goals markets.
Leeds need points before daunting run
Leeds distanced themselves from the relegation zone in midweek and another good result could see them move towards the safety of mid-table.
An injury time penalty that was successfully converted by Raphinha, turned a likely goalless draw against Crystal Palace into a 1-0 win. The victory saw Leeds move five points ahead of the relegation zone.
In order to not get sucked back towards the bottom three, it could be vital for Leeds to claim another three points on Sunday. Their fixtures after meeting Brentford are extremely tough, with consecutive games against Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, coming in December.
Leeds will have a much better chance in those games if Luke Ayling and Patrick Bamford are fit. Both are expected to return after injury against Brentford, as is Pascal Struijk, who picked up a knock against Crystal Palace. Robin Koch remains out.
Bees no longer buzzing
Twelfth placed Brentford are a point ahead of Leeds and will be looking to stay above them.
The Bees couldn’t have really hoped for a better start to the campaign following promotion, but they will be keenly aware of how easy it would be to get dragged into a relegation dogfight. On Thursday night they lost 2-0 away at Spurs, which means that Brentford have now only won one of their last seven games in the Premier League (D1 L5).
Though the defeat against Tottenham was only their second away loss in the Premier League this season, they’ve both come in the last three games (D1). Compared to Leeds, the Londoners have a favourable December schedule, with a big game against fellow promoted club Watford, coming next weekend.
Brentford’s form has no doubt been impacted by the number of injuries they’ve picked up over recent weeks. David Raya, Mathias Jorgensen, Kristoffer Ajer, Josh Dasilva and Tariqe Fosu-Henry are all currently out.
Take a chance on big odds if backing hosts
Leeds are the 1.9520/21 favourites, with the draw at 3.8514/5 and a Brentford win at 3.9.
With Leeds having only won three of their 14 games in the Premier League this season (D6 L5), their odds could be considered a little slim, even if Brentford are in poor form. I’d want a bigger price if backing the hosts, which means adding some caveats.
Brentford’s blank against Spurs was only the third time that they have failed to score this season and a Leeds win and both teams to score is 4.05. At a smaller price there is also the option of backing a Leeds victory and over 2.5 goals at 3.02/1.
Bamford return could be big
It might seem strange to back goals in a Leeds game, considering the struggles they’ve had with scoring this season. The return of Bamford up front should make a big difference though, while the full-back Ayling has also been missed, for his ability to bring the ball out of defence.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.9720/21 as a standalone bet. Both teams to score is 1.845/6, with Brentford not having not gone more than one game without scoring, all season.
Bamford is the favourite to score at 2.6313/8, ahead of Raphinha at 3.7511/4. The Brazilian could be the wiser pick considering that Bamford is just returning from injury. Raphinha has scored six Premier League goals this season and could remain on penalty duty.
Source: BetFair Tips
