League Two Tips: Top two to battle out draw

Lowest conceders can hold biggest scorers

Tranmere 3.211/5 v Forest Green 2.68/5; the draw 3.412/5

Even the layers couldn’t see the wood for the trees for this one initially, pricing both sides at about 3.02/1 for the respective wins. Now the odds have shortened on the visitors. However, League Two’s most proficient attack – especially away – will have to get past the meanest defence, especially at home.

Micky Mellon’s Tranmere have conceded just six goals and won 10 matches at Prenton Park, the first club in the division to reach double figures at home. Opta point out that the six goals is an EFL best this season. Rob Edwards’ visitors have a title in their grasp, partly built on a huge 28 goals on their travels.

The hosts have won eight times in an unbeaten run of 10 games, conceding in just three of them. Lee O’Connor, 21, who has looked comfortable alongside the vastly experienced Peter Clarke in defence, has signed permanently now from Celtic.

A chant of “one-nil to the Arsenal” served the north London club’s fans well for quite a few seasons and Tranmere fans might adapt it. Their backline gives them a strong platform to squeeze out a win, as they did at Crawley with Jay Spearing’s free kick somehow contriving to wiggle through a thicket of legs and find the net at the near post.

Charlie Jolley has contributed four goals in recent weeks. January loan recruit Josh McPake will create plenty of chances. Tranmere only seem to need one good one. Or even half a one given their win at Crawley.

Forest Green have an abundance of goals in their side, Jamille Matt (16 – matching last season’s career best, say Opta) and Matt Stevens (15, rewarded with a new contract) helping them march to the top of the league with three fifths of the team’s goals. They are now unbeaten in 14 games, winning nine, and with four clean sheets from the past five games.

They might have to be satisfied with a fourth goalless draw of the season, and Tranmere a third. Or at least, they are likely to share the points.

Stags have history in their sights

Mansfield 2.447/5 v Leyton Orient 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Mansfield must be in danger of setting records. Ah, here we go! Victory against Leyton Orient would be a record of eight straight Football League wins. Opta state they recorded seven straight previously in 1962 and 1991. I was rather thinking of a divisional best by any club, but that will do.

Having won with 10 men at Barrow last weekend, at a big price, the Stags remain eminently backable at 2.447/5 against a side with whom they drew nil-nil in the reverse fixture in September.

Ten wins out of the past 11 with 23 goals gives them every chance of another triumph doesn’t it? Granted, Nigel Clough’s men have faced many sides in the bottom half of the table in that time, but they have also beaten Tranmere, Salford and Swindon from the top half.

Only Sutton have beaten them.

Spearheaded by goals from Jordan Bowery, Stephen McLaughlin and George Maris among others, they have won their last six at home, drawing the previous two.

Lucas Atkins from Burton has been added to the forward line to bolster that goals ratio. It seems strange that Clough talks of slimming down his squad to 21, but he wants a tight-knit group for a promotion push. There’s nothing like team spirit.

Leyton Orient remain capable of beating anyone but recent form – and seven away draws – suggests they might struggle in this one. Kenny Jackett’s men have not scored in three games and during that spell took their goalless draws tally for the season for four. That was against Port Vale at home, where in the autumn they looked red hot.

Aaron Drinan and Harry Smith will be desperate to add to their 10 and 11 goals already. But , having risen to the top seven, the hosts are on a roll and in no mood to let new Derby County loanee, playmaker Jordan Brown, or ex-Walsall attacker Otis Khan make their mark. I don’t think they will be adding to the Opta stat of winning four of their last six at Mansfield.

Refuelled Boro can sink Sulphurites

Stevenage 2.526/4 v Harrogate 3.412/5; the draw 3.412/5

Paul Tisdale said his Stevenage side were running on fumes as they beat Crawley 10 days ago, at the end of three (home) games in 10 days. They “found something” but looked “tired” in their performance at Hartlepool last weekend. Hopefully now they have had a chance to regroup to do us a favour and continue their four game unbeaten run here with another win.

Home comforts might give them that extra boost. Chris Lines and Jake Reeves missed out on starting against Crawley through sheer fatigue it seems. A real positive for the squad is that Luke Norris has scored in three straight games. He really feels at home at Stevenage and has scored six times this season to match his tally in half a season last year.

Nine goals by Boro in four games is in contrast to Harrogate’s three – all in one game at home to Oldham, after blanks against Newport, Luton (in the FA Cup) and Sutton. All good sides, but even so the Sulphurites are not reaching the heights of last season.

Defeating the Latics gave them their first win in six. Simon Weaver’s side might have won five away games, but the last was seven games ago at Carlisle. The manager might have preferred that Jack Muldoon spread his hat-trick last week across three games to potentially earn three wins! Opta say they have never scored against Stevenage in three attempts. Two games finished goalless.

The visitors will be relieved to get Jack Diamond back on loan from Sunderland but improving Stevenage have their tails up. They are repeating last year’s trick of hitting their stride after Christmas.

Point keeps Sutton in top three

Carlisle 2.8415/8 v Sutton 2.829/5; the draw 3.412/5

It seems unfair of Sutton to be thinking of this match as taking a chance on them to win. But I am tempted. Matt Gray’s men are quite capable of it – and well up for continuing their extraordinary run in the automatic promotion places.

In addition, Carlisle languish near the relegation zone. Yet the Cumbrians have had their own decent run of late – and have drawn seven of their 13 home games, only losing three. A goals return of 9-10 would indicate their home games have been far lower scoring than Sutton’s, where away supporters have enjoyed 19 goals for and 21 against.

Opta state that Carlisle have failed to score in more League Two games (13) than any other side. And they add that (if Carlisle do score), Sutton have recovered more points (14) from losing positions than anyone else.

Keith Millen’s hosts beat Stevenage, Scunthorpe and mid-table Bradford to lift themselves at the turn of the year, before drawing with Crawley and Hartlepool and losing at Forest Green. Little surprise. Most have. Sutton, against whom they lost 4-0 in September, are now in the latter’s bracket.

Rob Milsom and Donovan Wilson (this is beginning to sound like an episode of Friday Night Dinner) have been among those helping themselves to goals in a six-match unbeaten run in which they have scored 11 and conceded eight. And they know a defeat could see them deposed from the top three by any of the four clubs behind them. A point would keep them there.

Can Rod McDonald and his defence hold them off is the question, alongside January recruit Joel Senior? And can Omari Patrick, re-signed from Burton, against find the net as he did against Bradford? Both sides might be happy with a draw.