League Two Tips: Sutton can capitalise at home

Sutton having Olaofe-ly time in front of goal

Sutton 2.3211/8 v Harrogate 3.55/2; the draw 3.613/5

Questions are being asked in London whether Millwall should recall Isaac Olaofe from his loan at Sutton United, such are the Lions’ scoring problems. He has four goals, but from just seven starts. Last season, he was a key part of their success, scoring 14 times.

Matt Gray’s side have been strong at home and no slouches away, drawing at fancied Bradford last weekend amid the worst injury crisis the manager has known at Gander Green Lane, he said. The previous week they netted two at Newport, losing 3-2. And it is goals which could be the way to go against Harrogate, who have been equally free scoring at times.

Those times include recently for both sides, whose most recent six games have each featured 18 goals, giving us three per game to play with. Sutton have a 9:9 goals record and Harrogate 8:10.

Olaofe has been one suffering with injury. It will be David Ajiboye’s six goals which will keep Harrogate boss Simon Weaver more awake at night perhaps. Mind you, the Sulphurites have five away wins this season and seemingly a licence to roam up front.

Jack Muldoon (six goals this season) has been the powerhouse up front long before Harrogate came into the EFL 18 months ago, but Luke Armstrong currently holds top billing with nine strikes. Jack Diamond also has five. Keepers Dean Bouzanis and Mark Oxley could both have busy afternoons.

Opta point out that Harrogate have won eight points in their past 10 matches, compared to 19 in their previous 10. With Sutton in the top seven and their visitors slipping out of it in recent weeks, the home win is there to add to Sutton’s six already, but over over 2.5 goals at 2.1211/10 surely has to follow, or even over 3.5 goals at 4.03/1. The combination of a home win and over 2.5 goals pays 3.25-1 on Sportsbook.

Opta add that Sutton have won six of their first nine home games in the EFL and the last team to win seven from their first 10 were Crawley in 2011-12. They went on to gain automatic promotion. The U’s don’t seem to be quite in the class of that Reds team, who sold both their main strikers in January, but they are loving their first Football League season.

Rovers must be wary of in-form Stags

Forest Green 1.845/6 v Mansfield 5.39/2; the draw 3.814/5

Nigel Clough’s Stags have won nine games from their last 10 in all competitions, but are the biggest price to win of any League Two team this weekend. It might have something to do with the fact they are playing the long-term league leaders. However, as Mansfield were among the top three pre-season favourites, they would not have been anywhere near 4.3100/30 had this match been in August.

The league table has Mansfield 11th, but over the past six games they are top with 15 points and Forest Green on 14. Over 10 games, Rovers have 21 (second) and Mansfield 19 (fourth).

Sadly for the visitors, injuries are creeping up again, with seven players out and much eyed John-Joe O’Toole less than likely to return this weekend, nor Danny Johnson. Stephen McLaughlin has filled some of the void though, scoring – which is rare for him – in the past two matches.

There’s a worry about Covid, with some staff (not players, yet) testing positive this week. And whereas they once couldn’t buy a win at home, their away form has been an Achilles heel this season. Two wins, two draws and five defeats. They have won their last two away though, a tight one at Crawley and against Stevenage. That could be in the layers’ thinking, but after Forest Green let 4-1 and 5-3 leads slip at Oldham last week, they are clearly vulnerable to the right attacks.

Could winger Nicky Cadden be distracted after being linked with a move to Sunderland? Could Matt Stevens and Jamille Matt be complacent after a report focusing on their prowess this season? Rob Edwards’ men have won three of their last four at the New Lawn without conceding (and beat Salford 3-1 in the other). Rovers, unbeaten in nine EFL matches, escaped the curse of manager of the month, which loses them the next match, by courtesy of the fact that the Latics couldn’t score six! The 5-5 equalled the EFL record set in 2010 by Chesterfield and Crewe.

It does seem a little bit of a stretch to think Mansfield might win. But for me Rovers are too short at 1.865/6 against a side in such form. Both sides have two goalless draws this season (which, Opta remind us, was the result the last time they met in the league, in March). After last week’s heart stopper Rovers would be delighted with the calmness such a score would bring. It’s available at about 14.013/1 in the correct score market with a draw at 3.814/5 I feel that is distinctly possible.

New Pools boss can keep up momentum

Colchester 2.68/5 v Hartlepool 3.185/40; the draw 3.55/2

It’s been a rare dare when I have considered a positive bet on Colchester this season. Fans continue to be on boss Hayden Mullins’ back. Some accuse him of being tactically inept, questioning why he brings on substitutes so late (well after they were 2-0 down at Walsall) yet showing glimpses of a Plan B by making changes at half-time in the goalless draw at Bradford.

“Put defender Tom Eastman up front,” was a left-field shout from a fan who said they need two forwards on the pitch at all times. The Essex side seem limited in attack, even with a line led by experienced Freddie Sears and his six goals being in record form. Opta tell us that he is only player to have scored in four consecutive home matches (one in each) since the stadium was opened in 2008. Talks about extending Fulham loanee Sly Jasper’s stay have begun.

Brendan Wiredu is doing his best in midfield, says one, who believes the management is the problem and the squad has potential. The team is passive, and shows a lack of ambition to win, was another’s view.

However, Colchester have been reasonably solid at home (three wins and three draws from 10) where they are unbeaten in five, even defeating Exeter.

They will surely fancy their chances of a positive result against a side with one win, one draw and just six goals on their travels – League Two’s worst return, point out Opta.

But then…there’s the new manager factor: This is Graeme Lee’s first away game as boss. A win over Rochdale and a draw with specialists Scunthorpe gives him something to build on. Keeping striker Mark Cullen fit could be key to climbing from midtable into the play-offs. Mark Shelton’s return in Lee’s matches, in midfield, has coincided with breaking the chain of poor results which came after Dave Challinor left for Stockport.

Hartlepool proved they could win away – albeit with an own goal – in the FA Cup, at League One Lincoln. The sooner Jordan Cook can return up front, for the Christmas period, the better. But for now the visitors might have to settle for a point.

Cooper keeps Newport surging upwards

Rochdale 2.89/5 v Newport 2.8615/8; the draw 3.55/2

In nine out of the past 10 EFL games, Newport and their opponents have both scored. Read eight out of 10 for Rochdale. Points wise, Newport have 19 points to Rochdale’s 12, partly because Robbie Stockdale’s men keep drawing. They looked on for another against Bristol Rovers last weekend before the Pirates powered through to win 4-2.

Yet another draw would be tempting if the Exiles hadn’t powered up the table for James Rowberry in a way that eluded them under Michael Flynn in recent times. The turnover of loan players in particular didn’t seem to help the former boss.

Top scorer Dom Telford is reaping the rewards of a flourishing link with midfielder Finn Azaz, on loan from Aston Villa. He netted the winner over high-flying Port Vale and then outlined how Newport had been “ridiculous” in dominating the play all over the field. He might want to tone down the bullishness in line with the camp’s determination to remain “humble” in their promotion bid, mirroring a perception about Cheltenham.

Stockdale admitted his side didn’t play well in the first half at Rovers. He will also point to four games unbeaten at Spotland. Opta point out they have three straight draws on home turf, last drawing four in a row in February 1997. It’s a solid platform and the manager will hope Jake Beesley (7) or Alex Newby (5) can add to their goals tallies. Strangely, Beesley has only scored one at home!

However, the momentum seems to be with Newport, whose midfielder Ollie Cooper is the man to contain. He might have scored just once but scouts – and indeed Opta – will tell you how busy he has been. He has eight assists in half a season already. Illustrious predecessors in that regard since their return to the Football League in 2013-14 have been Robbie Willmott and Padraig Amond, who both notched nine across full campaigns.