League Two Tips: Revived Colchester looking lively and worth a bet

Colchester can continue to climb

Colchester 2.47/5 v Carlisle 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

A 2-1 defeat to Mansfield in midweek for Colchester can be forgiven. It’s hardly a surprise against a side unbeaten in 10 League Two matches.

But the U’s have form now – and that form could be good enough to beat Carlisle, who have lost their last four matches (last losing more in a row in April 2013, state Opta). They have scored just twice in five matches. Granted, they have played some tough sides, but Wayne Brown in the home dugout will take any advantage he can get to inspire his side’s continued revival.

Colchester have a never say die attitude now, insist local commentators. Keeper Sam Hornby kept the Stags at bay a number of times – and pulling a goal back through Alan Judge in the 97th minutes made nerves jangle for Nigel Clough’s men in the final two minutes.

Had Freddie Sears put away a chance, the whole result could have been different. The U’s have scored at least once in their past six games, their best such run of the season, beating the four games in which they were unbeaten at the end of August going into September. Two wins and two draws have been their reward in that six-game period, with defeats to Sutton (3-2) and now Mansfield.

Carlisle seem to be struggling for Keith Millen, appointed in late October to arrest a poor run. The manager has cancelled days off for his side after their latest reverse.

He is not clear when Brennan Dickenson or Jon Mellish will return, having missed the 3-1 defeat at Port Vale on Tuesday. They are expected to be short-term injuries, unlike Callum Guy, Rod McDonald and Joel Senior, who also suffered injuries at the time – against Salford the week before.

Omari Patrick, re-signed in January, has a lot of weight of expectation to carry on the wing if the Cumbrians are to avoid the descent into non-league that some supporters are starting to fear. The way Oldham have started to pick up points, that now seems a genuine threat for Carlisle or Walsall. Another defeat here won’t help the cause.

Salford forming a winning pattern

Leyton Orient 2.47/5 v Salford City 3.613/5; the draw 3.39/4

Patterns. That’s what we want as tipsters. Even flimsy ones, like Salford’s last six results: WLWLWD, concluding with the goalles game at Sutton in midweek. Could it – might it – just point us to an away win at Brisbane Road?

The layers don’t think so at the prices, but it seems worth taking the chance, seeing as Leyton Orient have picked up just two points in eight games, scoring just twice. Exeter only just pipped them on Tuesday, with an injury-time goal to beat them 1-0.

Keeper Lawrence Vigouroux seems to have earned his money – especially early on – but not even the returning Adam Thompson or debutant Frank Nouble could lift them to a victory. Omar Beckles and Aaron Drinan both had chances as Kenny Jackett’s side tried to recoup their form from earlier in the season which took them to the fringes of the play-off places.

The O’s used to dominate teams at home as their goals record of 24-9 would suggest. However, since beating Swindon 4-1 in early December they have picked up just one point in four matches at home, without scoring at all.

This looks like another tough assignment, with Salford out to better the home 1-1 draw from the opening day of the season. Gary Bowyer’s men might have lost at Northampton in their penultimate away game, but they previously won at Barrow, Port Vale and Newport (losing at Bradford in between).

If the perennial pre-season favourites really want to make their mark and reach the play-offs, then Brandon Thomas-Asante (6) or Matthew Lund (4) need to make a march towards 10 goals this season pretty swiftly – and the Ammies need to assert their authority in matches like these. Any win could be tight. Leyton Orient have failed to score in their last three at home, say Opta, who add at Salford have failed to score in three of their last five in the league.

Hemmings helping to plot route to goal

Walsall 3.211/5 v Tranmere 2.68/5; the draw 3.39/4

Given Walsall’s record of seven straight defeats and the fact they sacked their manager, Matt Taylor, after the latest in midweek, are we seeing stars with Tranmere’s price?

Rovers are 2.68/5 to win away, on the back of a run of 10 wins from 13 and only one defeat – a trouncing by leaders Forest Green. It’s fair to say that Micky Mellon’s side “only” have four wins in the last six (one draw), and that they have “only” won three of their last six away (drawing the other three). Just the nine clean sheets in those 13 League two matches, too.

So what’s with the price? Is it that Mellon’s side seem to struggle to score more than once per game? They have won 1-0 or drawn 1-1 many times. That trend was bucked in midweek, with Paul Glatzel netting after Kane Hemmings bagged his first two for the club after his January move from Burton. He’s replicating his lifetime form of scoring about once every three games.

Kieron Morris, from midfield, is currently the top scorer with five. Maybe Hemmings is the answer, but it has clearly been the defence led by the vastly experienced Peter Clarke who have done much of the hard work for the second placed team. Calum MacDonald is flourishing alongside him in central defence.

The visitors, say Opta, have scored in each of their last six away, last netting in seven in a row in January 2019. That might be enough once more.

Walsall fans are planning a “peaceful protest” at the way the club is run at the Banks’ Stadium. It can hardly have come as a surprise that the manager left after defeat to bottom club Scunthorpe on Tuesday, which Taylor had labelled must win. They have scored two goals in seven games – and conceded 12. George Miller was the last to score, four games ago in the defeat to Bradford.

Red Devils could be tamed at home again

Crawley 2.56/4 v Hartlepool 3.211/5; the draw 3.55/2

Manager John Yems must be cock-a-hoop, again, with Crawley’s away form. A 3-1 win at Hartrogate in midweek has to count as one of their finest results, with Aramide Oteh scoring on his second start.

Striker Tom Nichols – described as “streetwise” by Harrogate boss Simon Weaver – scored his sixth goal in eight games. However, the Reds have not been so exhilarating at home, letting a two goal lead slip last weekend against Stevenage and losing 1-0 to Tranmere to a goal that was a bit freaky. There were few chances in that game and Yems described it as one of the worst performances in his time.

Crawley have won four and drawn four at home but should surely be looking to the play-offs if even Nick Tsaroulla can find a way to score. His goals used to be a collectors’ item. You might remember the astonishing goal he twisted and turned to score against Leeds in the FA Cup last season. He has netted three this season.

This result could depend on how Hartlepool recover from their FA Cup exit after their run to the fourth round. Was Tuesday’s 3-1 home win over Barrow a sign that they are ready to make an assault on the League Two play-offs? Or just a rekindling of their home form, where they have eight wins? Their last two away games have resulted in goalless draws.

Graeme Lee has tightened things up at the back. A defence led by David Ferguson and Gary Liddle gives Hartlepool a platform on which to build.

If Luke Molyneux or one of his teammates can find a way to score, this has the potential to be a draw. For me, it has to be a scoring one. Crawley usually score, whereas as Opta point out Hartlepool have not kept three clean sheets away in a row since March 2016.