Trotters can further deflate out-of-form Valiants
Bolton 2.47/5 v Port Vale 3.211/5; the draw 3.711/4
Manager Ian Evatt was cockahoop after Bolton won 3-0 last Saturday, but I’m not sure that beating runaway bottom of the table Southend is any measure of progress. Three wins before that, however, begins to speak volumes about improvements.
And on Saturday they have the perfect chance to follow up that home win against fancied Salford, that started the four game winning run on November 13, against a particularly out of sorts Port Vale.
The return to fitness of Eion Doyle, last season’s League Two top scorer, certainly seems to have lifted the Trotters. Nathan Delfouneso also has six goals. Bolton are ninth.
Cristian Montano says Port Vale have plenty of belief and togetherness, despite five straight defeats that must have John Askey wondering if he will be the fourth manager in the division this season to be shown the exit door.
From being hard to beat and on the verge of the play-offs when the season was curtailed last March, the Valiants have gone into a tailspin. He’s got experience and a track record. He took Macclesfield to the 2017-18 National League title on one of the smallest budgets in that division. But he won’t have been surprised to have seen headlines such as “shambles”, reflecting fans’ views after the late 3-2 defeat at in-form Leyton Orient.
Montano must have though he had secured a point against the O’s, who then managed to nab the three points. Tom Pope cheekily says he misses getting slated by fans. Port Vale have to wait a while longer to see some of their own. But does it take some “banter” from opposition supporters to get him truly going? He’s got a couple of goals from three starts and four substitute appearances. Those who have overtaking him in the pecking order have not done hugely better in front of goal. Devante Rodney is top scorer with three from eight starts and five games off the bench. David Amoo adding to the injured doesn’t help.
There’s no doubt that the visitors need to up their game. But they need to get that goals per game average back up. It’s hovering just above one when it has been closer to 1.5. Bolton are full of confidence, meanwhile. Having won four, Opta tell us they haven’t won five games in a row since March 2017. Prices such as 2.47/5 won’t be around on them for long if they really do start to climb into the potential promotion positions and their momentum suggests they can win again.
Nadesan a nugget who can dig out a draw
Mansfield 2.35/4 v Crawley 3.613/5; the draw 3.55/2
Ashley Nadeson is a contradiction. When the ball is nowhere near him or out of play, his head is bowed, his shoulders are slumped and his body language suggests life is an effort. By contrast, some of his team-mates are rigid backed and bright eyed in such situations. But when it comes to a sprint over 10 or 15 yards, I doubt few in training could beat the Crawley Town striker.
The fans sing – when they are allowed in – that he’s one of their own. It’s a bit of a stretch, because he’s from Horley, the neighbouring town in a different county, not Crawley. He played for the Surrey club until only a couple of seasons ago, when he got his opportunity in the Football League at Fleetwood then Carlisle.
A late starter in the professional game, now 26, despite the hangdog gait, there seems nobody more determined when chasing a ball, as shown when he scored at AFC Wimbledon in the FA Cup and supplied golden chances for others.
Boss John Yems was delighted with the Reds’ battling draw at Colchester. They again came from behind to take an away point. They were only behind for a short while and levelled in the 20th minute.
Tom Dallison says it has been a “tough couple of months” battling back into the team at centre-back. But his presence in the back three with Toby Craig and Jordan Tunnicliffe seems to have been instrumental as they try a different formation in the past two games.
They had to try something after one point in four games (and the crazy 6-5 win at Torquay in the FA Cup). Yems hasn’t been used to losing with Crawley. They have drawn the last three away and will fancy their chances of another at a Mansfield side who are still trying to fathom exactly what new boss Nigel Clough wants from them.
The initial bounce did them good. Victories over Sunderland in the FA Cup and Forest Green ensured. Then came a draw with Colchester and a defeat to Harrogate. Revolution will take time. Then won narrowly on Wednesday, a great 1-0 result at high-flying Cambridge. However, they are not yet worth the 2.26/5. They should be 2.68/5 or 2.89/5 against a team very capable on the road.
Clough admits the Stags are a work in progress. One shot on target against Harrogate wasn’t enough he said, demanding they step it up in attack. That means Jordan Bowery and Andy Cook have to work harder, Nicky Maynard has to be on the front foot more and midfielders Harry Charsley and George Lapslie have to contribute more goals. Or shots.
Jamie Reid bagged the winner at Cambridge, but Clough’s men relied heavily on keeper Marek Stech. The visitors can definitely eye a point with Max Watters already on double figure goals for the season. Crawley have drawn two and lost three of their last five and last went six games without a win between October and December last year, say Opta. An away draw, however, is nearly always perceived as a good thing.
What can the O’s achieve if they really play well?
Scunthorpe 3.185/40 v Leyton Orient 2.77/4; the draw 3.412/5
13:00 kick-off
Football managers can be hard to please can’t they? Leyton Orient’s Ross Embleton might rightly warn caution after his side rose to the heady heights of sixth. Temporarily. But he said they didn’t play well after winning 3-2 at Port Vale. Most managers expect to win games having scored three goals and would rank the performance as playing well!
They have certainly improved on last season. Opta say they have picked up as many wins (6) in their last nine league games as they did in the 28 previous ones.
After James Brophy‘s 85th-minute strike, they certainly had to defend for their lives to win – and Embleton credited them with doing so but also riding their luck at times.
He has been very glad of a “week to breathe” particularly for Conor Wilkinson, who nearly didn’t make last Saturday’s match. After taking a bashing previously, the striker played “with a hole in his foot” and ended the match with “a hole in his calf” too, according to his manager. He rewarded his boss with a sixth league goal of the season. Danny Johnson, who also scored, has 10 and the O’s have four wins in six games including three in a row.
They are the shorter of the prices against the Iron, who took advantage of Harrogate’s faltering fortunes to win 5-2 in midweek. That without Kevin van Veen, too.
He remains out, but Harrison McGahey, who has now recovered from a hamstring injury, with continue to partner Emmanuel Onariase at centre-back. Abo Eisa, John McAtee and others have come into their own as Neil Cox‘s evolution of the team starts to bear fruit. Lewis Spence has quietly impressed in front of the defence. It sounds like they should improve having taken just one point in four home games, to which Opta add they have only won once at home this season, but I think the visitors are particularly full of confidence after a fine run.
Tranmere can overcome Walsall’s draw habit
Tranmere 2.56/4 v Walsall 3.02/1; the draw 3.613/5
Walsall have become draw specialists, especially away with six, while Tranmere have won five League Two matches on the bounce plus two in the FA Cup. Something has to give, especially when Opta emphasise that none of Tranmere’s seven home games this season have finished level.
It is most likely that the generous price on the home win, of 2.47/5 will reap rewards. Tranmere moved into the play-off spots, temporarily, with the midweek win at Oldham and boss Keith Hill hopes returning fans will be the 12th man to inspire another win.
Midfielder Danny Lloyd had a great 28th birthday, signing a contract extension to the end of the season. He’ll hope to thread a match-winning pass to James Vaughan (to add to his eight goals) or even Kaiyne Woolery now the former Swindon striker has forced his way into the starting line-up. A correct prediction from me.
At the back Peter Clarke, 38, will hope to thwart a side led by his namesake Darren who have drawn three of their past six games 1-1, to the varying quality of teams such as Mansfield, Newport and Stevenage. The trouble is their low scoring rate: they have only nabbed four goals in those six games. Elijah Adebayor has two of them but the Saddlers’ scoring rate has to hold them back against confident Trams.
Source: BetFair Tips
