League Two Tips: Back in-form Pirates to keep winning

Roaring Rovers have an eye on top three spot

Rochdale 3.711/4 v Bristol Rovers 2.245/4; the draw 3.55/2

Visiting manager Joey Barton reckons you’d need Stephen Hawking, the late physicist, to work out who will gain automatic promotion from a congested field. But it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Bristol Rovers have every chance. And they will be inspired by seeing Forest Green celebrate promotion at the Memorial Stadium last weekend, after the teams drew 0-0.

The Bristol Rovers manager rightly talks about his team being in their first cycle after the upheaval of relegation a year ago. Forest Green have had years to build, by comparison.

The fact is, the Pirates seem the most together side at present. Over the past 10 games only Exeter have more points (25) than Rovers (23).

The visitors here want some of what Forest Green have – promotion. They would love it to be automatic. For that they must rely on Port Vale and Northampton dropping points. Both still have to play Exeter, who could yet win the title! It’s that tight at the top.

The Gas have an abundance of midfielders. As the boss points out, he has Sam Finley, Antony Evans, Glenn Whelan, Paul Coutts and Elliot Anderson to squeeze into three midfield places.

Rovers have the form to overcome a couple of warnings from Opta: Rochdale have won their last two home games in a row – a first for the season. Rovers’ three defeats in the run of 45 points from their last 22 games this season (W13 D6) have all come away.

Keeper James Belshaw had to earn his money against Forest Green but the visitors have relied on him less frequently of late. That’s because Elliot Anderson and his namesake Harry have been notching the goals up front.

Rochdale are well clear of relegation which, Barton says, makes them dangerous.They are in fact hit and miss. Having said that, Robbie Stockdale’s side have seven home wins, 11 draws – which might be a problem – and only four defeats at Spotland this season. They have won three of their past four at home, not conceding in three of them.

Conor Grant has two goals in six games but goals have not been easy to come by, to the extent that Jimmy Keohane struck only his second goal of the season on Bank Holiday Monday, in a game where defender Eoghan O’Connell scored his first of the campaign. The Gas will surely have enough desire and competitive instinct to taste victory again.

Great defences can even out to a draw

Northampton Town 2.47/5 v Exeter City 2.77/4; the draw 3.39/4

Leyton Orient “played with their flip flops on” according to their manager against Northampton last Saturday. The Cobblers were 3-0 up before Orient began to get over their shellshock at how well Jon Brady’s men had started. Brady was not only blown away by the players’ performance, but the fans’ support.

These fans have witnessed incredible ups and downs in recent years. A play-off win 4-0 in the final two years ago to get out of League Two – and now after relegation again a campaign where automatic promotion is in their own hands.

Mitch Pinnock said their “sensational” first half was the best he had experienced. Josh Eppiah, on loan from Leicester, certainly made it a memorable experience with a double. They seem to be flying, with four clean sheets from five before last Saturday.

But do the third placed team have enough to defeat now promoted Exeter, who are level on points at the very top? The Grecians have a similar record, with six clean sheets in nine games. Midfielder Matt Jay has found the net again in successive games, after a barren spell – he raced to 10 goals in the autumn.

They did lose at Tranmere – their only dropped points in seven games (they scored in the other six). Opta add that defeat ended a run of four games without conceding on the road.

The last time Matt Taylor’s men faced a potential automatic promotion rival, Port Vale, they drew 0-0. That, like this game, was away. This is their toughest fixture since that draw with the Valiants seven games ago.

Opta make it look especially tough, saying that Northampton could win a fourth game in a row for the third time this season. They haven’t done that since 1986-87.

Tim Dieng, Kieran Phillips, Jevani Brown and Padraig Amond are all capable of popping up with goals for the visitors. But these sides might well cancel each other out.

Battling duo can take point each

Crawley Town 2.767/4 v Leyton Orient 2.767/4; the draw 3.613/5

A spring day in Sussex won’t distract Barry Hearn, a former Leyton Orient owner, from the World Snooker Championships semi-finals. But the World Snooker chairman will doubtless be keeping tabs on this draw – sorry for the spoiler!

At least we’re not still reading daft headlines about Crawley remaining unbeaten under new owners (who can’t influence anything until the summer). The mid-table Red Devils have suffered two reverses, both away, at Mansfield and Sutton who are both fighting for top seven spots.

They haven’t scored in two games, but before that netted in nine in a row. Opta point out that the Reds have won their last four at home, conceding once (3-1 against Swindon, winning the others 1-0).

Derby County loanee Isaac Hutchinson would love to sign off at home for John Yems with another goal. Who knows? He might come back next year if the new owners can stump up the cash. Ashley Nadesan and Tom Nichols will likely be retained while Crawley’s priorities will surely be in defence to protect keeper Glenn Morris.

There should be goals in this, what with Richie Wellens’ men netting seven in three games – and when they score they tend to score twice. The trouble is they tend to score two or none on their travels under Wellens: see the last four away games.

Wellens will also have eyes on who he will keep or release, given next month will bring his first transfer window after 11 games in charge so far. A glut of players could score, from Theo Archibald who has two goals in three games to Ruel Sotiriou, 21, who has really established himself in the second half of the season. Omar Beckles and Harry Smyth will have to be marshalled by the hosts, too.

Take a creative bet on Sutton

Sutton United 1.845/6 v Bradford City 5.04/1; the draw 3.9

As with last weekend’s Swindon fixture, I’ve been wondering how to make the most of this game with a creative bet. Why? Because I think Sutton will win, but I don’t put my money on teams when they are odds-on.

Bradford, with the freedom of nothing immediately at stake, are perfectly capable of disrupting Sutton’s attempts to secure a play-off spot. Sutton could even hijack an automatic one.

Under Mark Hughes, the Bantams began better away (winning 2-0 at Forest Green and Hartlepool) than at home. However, that has all tailed off and in three away games since they have earned one point and scored one goal.

In recent weeks they have managed to hinder Newport and Northampton with goalless draws. Hughes wants the Bantams to play a meaningful part against any team with something to play for. Jamie Walker is out to impress, having scored twice in three games. Charles Vernam will be eager to contribute another having netted his first for a while last weekend.

But Matt Gray’s men will have other ideas about the outcome of this game, especially having won their past three home games to nil. Alistair Smith gave the U’s a “real spark” said his manager after he scored twice in midweek, with Richie Bennett netting the other in a 3-0 win over Crawley.

Sutton’s home form – 15 games unbeaten – is the fourth best in League Two (47 points) emphasise Opta. It has held them in good stead either side of their EFL Trophy final appearance, when their form dipped and they fell out of the top seven.

For much of the season they were in the top three.Y et nobody has scored 10 goals or more. Rob Milsom, Isaac Olafe, Smith (7) and David Ajiboye (8) are all closest and it is a sign of a good team that several have scored five or more.

Further Opta stats are this time in favour of some sort of bet on the hosts: Hughes has won only one of his last seven games at newly-promoted sides. The visitors have won just two of their past 11 games in London.

So what can be done to get value out of Sutton winning? Sportsbook might hold the answer: either Sutton to win and over 2.5 goals at 15/8 or Sutton to be winning at half time and full time at 7-4. I might just go for the latter.