League Two Midweek Tips: A Taylor made chance to kick on

Nombe’s return can propel Grecians

Exeter 2.111/10 v Leyton Orient 4.216/5; the draw 3.412/5

Can Exeter really kick on this time? Find the form that will bring them that elusive promotion? Preferably by bridging the current gap of four points to the automatic promotion slots, rather than having to rely on the play-offs where they have lost so many times in recent seasons?

Every so often Matt Taylor’s put on a run and you think: finally, they can achieve their promotion ambitions. Yet even such runs seem to come with caveats. A 15-game unbeaten run in League Two from late August to mid-November was still pockmarked with seven draws. Now, their most recently five game unbeaten run consists of three wins and two goalless draws.

But the Grecians are back in the top seven – with a game or two in hand on most of the sides above them. There is no doubt they have quality in Matt Jay who can produce a moment of magic in midfield to open the doors to victory.

His latest goal, however, of his top scoring 10 for the season was in mid-November. Just a couple of weeks later, Sam Nombe, who had accumulated a quick-fire seven after starting to score – suffered a hamstring injury.

His absence really seemed to hurt the Grecians. Now he has returned and played his part – as a substitute – in a 2-1 win at Swindon to rise above their hosts into the play-off positions. His return comes just as Tim Dieng has found the consistency and confidence to net three times in six games, taking his season’s tally to seven.

Leyton Orient boss Kenny Jackett has faced a similar slump but little sign of a subsequent rise again after a decent run in autumn.

The O’s have not won in seven games, failing to score in five. Jackett urged his side to “be brave” and “make things happen” to reignite their play-off push. But the cry from tipsters like me has to be “give us a sign we can believe in”. Losing to Colchester, at home where they were so dominant in autumn, is not what we mean.

Harry Smith (11 goals) and Aaron Drinan (10) remain among the top scorers in the division. But new signing Jordan Brown, a playmaker, and Otis Khan seem to have a lot of work to do in order to give them a confident chance to score.

It seems like Exeter are quite short, given they are tentatively taking steps back to convincing form, but they don’t seem in the mood to even allow the Orient to add to their League Two topping eight away draws. The visitors have one win and seem more likely to add to their four away defeats.

Pirates can pluck full points again

Oldham 3.02/1 v Bristol Rovers 2.6813/8; the draw 3.412/5

Bristol Rovers have developed a habit of scoring late in games. It started in September when they started a run of five games from six when they scored in the 90th minute or later (and also twice after 80 minutes). In the other match they netted in the 84th.

In their most recent six League Two matches they have scored seven of their 12 goals in the 78th minute or later, winning four matches and drawing the other two.

Does that imply they let leads slip or have to come back to earn points? Anthony Evans earned a late point with a penalty at Sutton on Saturday, as Sam Finley did at Swindon – in the 35th minute! Otherwise they have led, sometimes comfortably but at other times powering through the latter stages of a match to create the only goals, such as when winning to nil over Walsall and Hartlepool.

Aaron Collins scored in both those games and while being able to have the stamina to last 90+ minutes is the demand of any manager, Joey Barton would love the Gas to score more goals earlier – and not allow teams to come back at them.

He anticipates a tough match at Boundary Park on Tuesday and will be wary of the second-bottom Latics. Basement club Scunthorpe, whom Oldham beat on Saturday, were one side to come back at Rovers in the past six games, clawing back from 3-0 down to lose 3-2.

John Sheridan has been a popular appointment, having been installed for a sixth spell as Oldham manager. He’ill just be glad to have earned his first win and a slight inroad to shortening the gap to League Two safety. His side remain five points below Carlisle and 22nd place.

Maybe he can get even more out of Junior Luamba, 18, who has now netted twice this season. Both after the 80th minute. Sheridan says he will get the best out of attacking midfielder Tope Obadeyi who has re-signed for the club. They have worked together before.

Sheridan will be delighted his side scored for the first time in five games and only the second in eight. At least they have four clean sheets in their last five games – and a massive six goalless draws. Bristol Rovers have none. And a record of scoring late if not before. The longer it remains goalless, the more likely the Pirates will come up with a late goal to steal all three points.

Tisdale’s revived side can hold Bantams

Stevenage 2.588/5 v Bradford 3.39/4; the draw 3.412/5

Crawley should never have let Stevenage back into Saturday’s game for a draw with two goals in the final 10 minutes on Saturday. But that just shows how much belief Boro have now under Paul Tisdale. It took a while. They didn’t score in four of his first five League Two games.

Since then, however, they have scored 14 times in six, conceding nine, winning three and drawing two. At home in recent weeks, they have beaten Harrogate, Crawley and Walsall and drawn with high-flyers Sutton. Bradford, inconsistent, will be wary.

The question is, how inconsistent? Can home skipper Scott Cuthbert inspire his side to take the initiative against the ambitious Bantams? Or can Luke Norris (4), Jake Taylor and Jamie Reid find enough of a way past Paudie O’Connor and Oscar Threlkeld?

Bradford’s defence has kept one clean sheet in nine. They have lost at Harrogate and Carlisle in their past five away games, but won at Walsall and Barrow, drawing at Rochdale.

Derek Adams will hope Andy Cook can conjure some chances up front, but it has to be a worry that they have one won three times in 15 games, with eight draws being far too many for a side who should have promotion aspirations. With the hosts finding their feet under a new boss and Bradford not firing on all cylinders, this could well end up a draw.

Crawley always seem to score away

Harrogate 2.245/4 v Crawley 3.814/5; the draw 3.613/5

Simon Weaver is rightly proud of his Harrogate side, who have notched three clean sheets in successive home games in League Two. Keeper Mark Oxley came in for much praise from his gaffer after the victory over Bradford.

However, Crawley have scored in their past 12 away games – by no means winning them all, but their away record is stronger than their home one. And John Yems will be looking for a reaction after his side let a two goal lead slip, late on, against Stevenage.

Combine that with the Tuesday night factory – where long odds seem to come off more frequently – and I reckon Crawley are too long a price to be ignored. They seem to save their best away results for teams in form or ambitious ones: at the end of January they won at Bradford, nearer the start of the month Northampton were seen off.

Crawley striker Tom Nichols should have completed a hat-trick before Stevenage came back late. Harrogate’s Oxley made four fine saves as Sunderland winger Jack Diamond’s double set up victory on Saturday. The arrival of Aramide Oteh up front gives Crawley opponents new problems. Ashley Nadesan has been displaced to the bench but still replaced his new colleague on Saturday.

But will Crawley secure a draw or a win? Both sides have about half a dozen points over six games. The hosts have at least recovered from five game unbeaten run and that chastising they suffered after a 4-0 reverse at Newport. Weaver accused them of letting great praise in defeat to Luton in the FA Cup go to their heads. Since then, Jack Muldoon scored a hat-trick the next game, but they failed to score in their next two matches before hosting Bradford.

I’m banking on Crawley to maintain their record of scoring away, but they have also conceded in their past four away games. Therefore this might just end up a draw to add to the 30% of games that have ended level this season in League Two.