Potential champions
Promotion experience key for Pilgrims’ squad
Last season, I was confident about a tip on Lincoln to win League Two at [10.0] in the League Two winners market, based on a well-financed upward curve from cup runs and a previous promotion, a strong management and a few tweaks to the squad in the summer. For once, the team top in the autumn didn’t collapse and there weren’t several flip-flopping leaders.
This year, there are an entirely different set of circumstances which lead me to take the rare step of concluding a relegated side would make the most likely winners – and I’m not talking about Bradford, the favourites at [9.0].
I am always nervous about big name relegated sides, but the chances are – like Bury and MK Dons last season and Coventry (via the play-offs) the year before – that some of them find their way back again. Bradford – like Portsmouth when they fell into League Two – are a big name club, well-supported, potentially well-backed by punters. Such clubs tend to be false favourites. The Bantams – and Pompey – both took several years to go back up.
So it is with slight trepidation that I head to the deep south to Plymouth for a season-long bet on who will win League Two come May. At least they are not favourites, but fourth on the starting grid.
There are “big club” things to like about the Pilgrims at [11.0]. An average home gate of 9,852 was the seventh biggest in League One last season.
Arguably, having been relegated only on goal difference, and with new leadership in new owner Simon Hallett, they are in better shape than the last time they were relegated to the fourth tier, after administration.
But the biggest reason I like them is because they have Ryan Lowe as manager – and he has form. That is, he coaxed Bury, despite financial difficulties, to second spot in League Two last year. Being an inexperienced manager, the jury was out on him. Now, he has proved himself and, one hopes, didn’t merely achieve because he knew the Shakers well.
Indeed, if that is the issue, then he has already recruited five of his former squad – and their assistant manager Steve Schumacher – bringing in two defensive players including Callum McFadzean and three attackers – including Danny Mayor. Expect a loan favour or two from his relatively new friend Jurgen Klopp, the Liverpool manager, even after he took a chance on Evertonian Jose Baxter, whose career hasn’t sparkled since he became the Toffees’ youngest player in 2008.
Bradford at [9.0] favourites have a few things to like, such as the experienced Gary Bowyer as manager, the perhaps now ageing Clayton Donaldson and the battling former Accrington forward Shay McCartan. Oh and James Vaughan, the [11.0] favourite in the top scorer market, whose most recent best spell came at Bury. Maybe he’s the one in this, so look for those odds if you wish to play in this field.
It’s interesting, too, that former Bury player Nicky Maynard is among the top scorer candidates, third favourite at [13.0]. Now of Mansfield, he too was among the summer exodus from Gigg Lane.
As was Dom Telford, who shares Plymouth’s candidacy for the golden boot with Ryan Taylor at about [25.0].
To be promoted: Newport best placed to progress
The to be promoted market is crowded for potential promotees. A new season always brings optimism, of course, much of which can be burst within six weeks. I’ve lost faith in Exeter for now, who lost manager Paul Tisdale – and three key players – a year ago in a big blow for their progression hopes.
What about beaten play-off teams? In the previous two seasons, Luton and Lincoln went on to gain automatic promotion, while Notts County fell out of the division.
Mansfield, beaten play-off semi-finalists in May, lost patience with David Flitcroft and now trust academy boss John Dempster to step up and do the business at just over [3.0].
While the Stags are apparently well resourced, you’ve got to look for stability and progression – which Forest Green at [4.5] and Newport at [7.0] both have.
Rovers under Mark Cooper are about evolution and let’s not forget they were flying high well before top scorer talisman Christian Doidge returned to the fold in January, so his exit now to Hibernian can’t be seen as prohibitively bad.
County might have lost Joe Day to Cardiff but a keeper’s just one man right? Well, a good one is worth his weight in gold. What’s the collective name for defenders? Because Michael Flynn signed a flock of them in a few days and has now added Tristan Abrahams up front to a team whom Mickey Demetriou, one of several players to re-sign, says is “marked” after going so close last year. With funding from cup runs, like Lincoln, they should be able to push for promotion.
Talking of well-backed, promoted Salford City are well-owned, by a clutch of former Manchester United superstars, and have a momentum about them, but to install them as second favourites for the title at [9.0] is premature, even if they are bidding – as reported – for Mansfield skipper Krystian Pearce. They are a short priced [2.6] for promotion.
Leyton Orient need to start again under Ross Embleton, after the untimely passing of Justin Edinburgh, who had success at Newport among other clubs as a young manager before his death aged just 49 in early June.
To be relegated: Silkmen on the slide, but Shrimps will surely survive
Somehow, Morecambe always seem to survive. A decent start to their season is always key – possibly even to saving Jim Bentley’s job. There’s a little bit more investment which brings pressure now, but the directors would be foolish to rock a boat which has been running for nine years – the longest current managerial stint at one club in the top four tiers.
Adding Shaun Miller, from Crewe on loan, and winger John O’Sullivan, formerly of Blackpool, can only enhance the chances of extending their stay in the Football League. Like last season, they are a lay in the relegation market.
Grimsby should have enough about them under Michael Jolley, who seems to have the nous to progress, but it has come in fits and starts. Cambridge should have enough about them now under Colin Calderwood, another one having been at the top of the game who is surely raising standards at lower league level and instilling maximum discipline on tight resources.
Cheltenham really ought to have enough about them with Alex Addai re-signing, and with Tahvan Campbell pinched, surely, from under the noses of others, alongside experienced Reuben Reid from Forest Green.
While Crawley and Port Vale are ones to watch as this market shapes up, Macclesfield’s off-field problems of delayed payments to players can’t bode well for Sol Campbell‘s side. I am willing the former Tottenham defender to succeed. However, signing players released by other League Two clubs and from non-league is a sign of where they are at and it is likely to be a season of struggle.
Source: BetFair Tips
