Expect a good start from Burton at the bigger price
My instinct with sides dropping down to League One, especially a big team, is to avoid them. I am a little surprised we haven’t got more of a “Sunderland” price on the Tractor Boys, but I would like to see a bit more before parting with my cash in terms of a bet. Incidentally they are priced at [2.54].
They are [8.40] in the Winner market as they drop down to the third tier for the first time since 1957.
I have already outlined my plans with Burton in my ante-post preview, and I am happy to back them as the outsider of the two in this at [3.0]. Although there comes a slight warning from the Opta Stats with this mind; as Burton have only won two of their previous 10 opening day league fixtures.
And this is the crux of the matter (or rem acu tetigisti as the very popular Latin saying goes). The Brewers started ever so sluggishly last term, and that cost them a genuine chance of playoff football as they finished 10 points off the places. Clough has stressed the importance of a good start, but that can be said for every team that takes to the field on Saturday.
Burton look as though they have a bit more aggression this season, especially in midfield with more energy and bite. That should complement their speed of passing, which has always been good, and they also have a fair bit of experience at the back and just in front of the four with Stephen Quinn.
The hosts were a good side at the Pirelli last season and beat some of the best teams in the division – including Luton and Barnsley. If they can build on their momentum from last term, especially at home, the [3.0] looks a bet worth striking.
New season, same old Posh on opening day
Peterborough United v Fleetwood Town
According to the Opta Stats, Peterborough have won each of their last seven games when opening a league campaign at home, scoring 17 and conceding four. You might recall that they started 2018/19 off to a flyer, and I am expecting a decent beginning again.
It really was a breathtaking opening month from Posh 12 months ago as they rattled off seven wins in their opening eight games. I’ll take one for Saturday, and I will be backing Posh
at around the [1.95] mark.
I largely ignore pre-season results and games, perhaps that’s the cynic in me, but if you like that sort of thing, Peterborough were good. Very good. Several fringe players also impressed in their appearances.
Manager Darren Ferguson had a full summer to work with the players after he was drafted in to replace Steve Evans last term. The appointment of Evans never really took off, and I was a believer. I seem to say it every year, but it’s a big season at London Road.
Fleetwood have lost four of their previous five trips to Peterborough, and weren’t exactly a free-scoring team on their travels last term with just 25 goals netted. The summer addition of Josh Morris could improve those stats, but the hosts have more firepower here.
Their big money signing Mo Eisa is quick and technical, whilst George Boyd has returned to the club and has signed a two-year deal following his departure from Sheffield Wednesday. Marcus Maddison and Matt Godden have had minor niggles, and there is always plenty of speculation concerning the former and a possible move away. He’s still there for now, and he has quality that should grace the Championship.
Hopefully it’s another fast start for the blues.
New managers go head-to-head and Moore can win
This looks the trickier match of the three previewed for Saturday, with the task even more difficult in terms of team identity as both start the campaign with a new boss.
Darren Moore has the job at Doncaster following the exit of Grant McCann to Hull. McCann promoted a pure footballing philosophy that was a success last season, and their pass-and-move style got them to a playoff semi-final against Charlton.
Keeping hold of leading scorer from last season John Marquis will be crucial to the chances of Rovers this term, but they might struggle to replicate another playoff push.
One of the most surprising aspects of the League One news over the summer was Steve Evans replacing Steve Lovell at Gillingham, and the Scot has been busy in the summer market with a mix of free agents and loan deals. Doncaster were trading at [1.96] earlier in the week, but since the sale of John Marquis to Portsmouth, the hosts have been pushed out to [2.04]. I don’t mind that (the price, not the sale), and I’ll stick with the hosts to find the net from other sources.
Where the goals come from with the Gills is the problem, and I am not in a rush to back them.
Backing the Draw is quite tempting as four of the last six meetings between these two have ended in a stalemate, but I have to see a bit more of the new Gillingham under Evans,
who won’t have quite the same spending power as he did at Peterborough.
Although Donny have failed to win an opening day fixture at the Keepmoat in their last four matches, I’m siding with the hosts and Darren Moore to get off to a perfect start.
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Source: BetFair Tips
