Alan Dudman landed a 7/1 Correct Score 1-1 in his latest tipsheet, and he’s back with six bets for Tuesday night’s round of League One matches, and another 1-1 pick…
Predictable Millers can earn us profit again
Tuesday, 22nd February, kick-off 19:45
It still appears a two-and-a-half horse race (if such a thing exists) following Friday’s must see match between Rotherham and Wigan. Much like the bourgeoise flocked to see Waiting For Godot on the opening night in Paris, it was certainly the hottest ticket in town with nearly 11,000 at the New York as the two powerhouses played out a thrilling 1-1, thus earning us a nice winning bet on the Correct Score bet at 8.07/1. More Lucky than Pozzo.
The draw halted Rotherham’s spectacular run of six straight wins (and six clean sheets), but Wigan proved a talented opponent – just as Millers boss Paul Warne had predicted. He was wary of their width, but his wing-backs were up to the task. The slight tinker to 3-5-2 from the 3-1-4-2 overloaded the midfield to ensure they had enough cover out wide.
It may seem a little predictable in keeping the league leaders in the column, but so strong defensively are they at the moment, several markets can be considered away from their stunningly short price for Tuesday at 1.331/3.
Predictable is good for a bettor.
With just six goals conceded since late November, a pretty obvious bet here is the Rotherham Clean Sheet, so too the Rotherham to Win To Nil at 1.981/1. The Morecambe -1 market should be covered, although I would want around 2.26/5 to 2.111/10 as the leaders haven’t quite been at their best of late. But Opta state that Morecambe have won just one of their six Football League visits to Rotherham (D1 L4), with that victory coming in 2011 under Sammy McIlroy (1-0), and that should be enough against Stephen Robinson’s team.
Ollie Rathbone’s 30-yarder earned the points for United on Saturday with midfielder taking a pot-shot against a stubborn rear-guard. The midfielder surprisingly has only two goals this season, and at 13/1 to Score First, could he reward his backers to repeat the trick? Dan Barlaser takes penalties, and his five of seven this term have been at home. The beauty of Rotherham’s goalgetters is that they’ve been spread around the team. Michael Smith’s 21 still leads the way, and the 6/5 Anytime Scorer on the Sportsbook could be the way to go.
KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham have won three of their last four Football League games against Morecambe (L1), as many as they’d won in their previous nine games against them (D3 L3).
Hard to see goals between struggling duo
Gillingham v AFC Wimbledon
Tuesday 22nd February, kick-off 19:45
Two of the struggling teams are in dire need of the points at the Priestfield on Tuesday, and with Wimbledon five points clear of Gillingham – who are third from bottom, an away victory could go a long way to preserve their third tier status.
The Dons are still 4.216/5 in the Relegation market, with the Gills at 1.182/11. It’s a game they dare not lose.
The Wombles have won three of their last five Football League games against Gillingham (D1 L1), and are unbeaten in their last two (W1 D1), but overall this season they have drawn an astonishing 10 at home and three away.
Neil Harris’ team haven’t scored many at home this season, although the former Millwall man is their third manager. Their 2-7 loss to Oxford was as wretched a performance you will ever witness, but since then, it’s telling that Gillingham have been involved in five games that have all hit the Under 2.5 Goals. It’s the first reaction of a new boss – to shore up the defence and start picking up a point rather than a loss. It’s why the games have seen three 1-0s and a 1-1.
Gills boss Harris is dealing with a few injuries although Ben Reeves was a welcome return after an ankle injury in Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Plymouth.
Wimbledon’s charge sheet is even worse of late, as they are without a win in 14 games. In that run, they have drawn seven at 50%, so the draw at 3.412/5 looks a smart pick. With an anticipated low-scoring game with the Under 2.5 Goals trading at 1.768/11, trading out on the draw at around 30 minutes will give you a green book opportunity. I fancy another go at the 0-0 and 1-1 too.
KEY OPTA STAT: Gillingham’s victory in this exact fixture last season (2-1 in November 2020) ended a run of six successive home Football League games against AFC Wimbledon without a win (D3 L3) – they’ve never won consecutive home Football League games against them.
Back Burton to cause a shock at a big price
Sunderland v Burton Albion
Tuesday 22nd February, kick-off 19:45
The MK Dons did us a favour landing the Double Chance bet at 1.84/5 on Saturday with a 1-2 success at the Stadium Of Light, but the alarming dip in form for the Black Cats at such a crucial stage is in danger of derailing their season.
The Dons were excellent in their counter-press and showed plenty of intensity in maintaining their own automatic promotion hopes, and with the likes of Josh McEachran, Mo Eisa, Cnnor Wickham and Troy Parrott, they had the goal threat that is certainly stronger than Burton’s will be. But that’s not to say the outsiders aren’t worth a bet here. At 5.509/2, they are worth a small go.
Conversely, Sunderland are appalling value. Of course, they could win this easily. Their home record suggests they could well do so as they have won 11 games and lost four. But, and it’s a big but, they have won just once in nine games. Near 8/11 is a crazy price. To beef up the betting idea, Opta state that Sunderland have failed to win any of their four previous home Football League games against Burton Albion (D2 L2).
Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbaink will be aware the Black Cats got counter-attacked twice on Saturday, and were poor in terms of keeping hold of the ball. Burton have won twice on the road since the turn of the year with wins against Gillingham and Lincoln, and have scored at Wycombe and Rotherham in 2-1 and 3-1 defeats. I think they can score here too, so the Both Teams To Score is another bet.
KEY OPTA STAT: Since losing their first Football League meeting with Sunderland in November 2017 (2-0), Burton have lost just one of their last seven Football League games against the Black Cats (W4 D2).
Source: BetFair Tips
