The League One season begins this weekend and Alan Dudman has three bets including one for Saturday’s live Sky TV game at the Valley…
“Sheffield Wednesday’s spending ability and pulling power have seen a number of impressive signings under Darren Moore over summer. Moore has moved quickly to get some of his top targets, including Lee Gregory the former Millwall man.”
Miller time for the season opener
Rotherham United v Plymouth Argyle
As Rotherham are one of my antepost tips for the new season in the Winner market at 15.014/1, I am looking forward to them getting off to a good start as the third tier kicks off at the New York Stadium.
Paul Warne will take charge for the fifth consecutive first match of the campaign and that continuity will stand the Millers in good stead following their heartbreaking relegation from the Championship. A last kick of the game against Cardiff foiled their bid to preserve their status.
Warne has been fairly quiet on the transfer front in the early part of the summer but has moved swiftly this week to sign up Hakeem Odoffin (Hamilton), Rarmani Edmonds-Green (Huddersfield) and Ollie Rathbone (Rochdale) and all three will add balance – especially at the back. Edmonds-Green is an excellent capture considering his Championship experience last season and played well in a back three. Markets and fans can go overboard on the sheer number of signings which can create a misguided belief the more incomings, the better you are. I prefer Warne’s patient approach.
Plymouth’s neat style of passing at one stage looked quite good in October last term but they were found out in a disastrous run of results losing 11 times from March onwards.
Manager Ryan Lowe has been pleased with their pre-season against a trio of Championship clubs, playing some good football against the likes of Bristol City, Millwall and Middlesbrough, but Rotherham have a lot of experience and their uncompromising style (at times) might be a bit too much for the Pilgrims to handle. They conceded a lot of goals towards the end of the season and I remain to be convinced that they won’t struggle.
The hosts conceded just 16 at home in their promotion season from League One in 2019/20 and while 1.845/6 is pretty short, I think they should be about 1.75/7.
KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth Argyle have won their opening league match in each of the last two seasons, last doing so in three in a row between 1960-61 and 1962-63.
Addicks can be a sound bet against busy Wednesday
Charlton Athletic v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday 17:30, live on Sky Sports
Sheffield Wednesday’s spending ability and pulling power have seen a number of impressive signings under Darren Moore over summer. Moore has moved quickly to get some of his top targets, including Lee Gregory the former Millwall man – a fine source of goals. Indeed, Moore has plentiful options up front following the arrivals of Theo Corbeanu from Wolves and Florian Kamberi from St Gallen.
Eleven incomings and a huge rebuild is underway and Moore will know the division well from his brief spell at Doncaster. He’d taken Rovers on the cusp of the play-offs and he’s got a far superior squad on his hands now. He looks the right fit for the Owls, who are priced at 11.521/2 in the Winner market.
Backing them at 2.982/1 makes plenty of appeal and according to the Opta stats, they have won five of their last seven opening games of the season. Charlton’s record is eight from 13.
Charlton are quite difficult to assess under Nigel Adkins, who gave it everything at the end of last term for a shot at post-season football.
However, their problem for much of the campaign was their home record, and backing Charlton on the road always made more sense with a superior record (12 win on the road compared to eight at the Valley).
Losing the 15 goals from Chuks Aneke who has rejoined his old boss Lee Bowyer at Birmingham is hole to fill, but individual mistakes cost them in plenty of games last term. But Adkins impressed me in the short space of time and they hardly lost a game from the beginning of March.
I won’t go overboard on the Owls just yet, and I will play this one rather solidly at 2.588/5 for the home win.
KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton Athletic have won their first league match of the season in eight of the last 13 seasons (D2 L3), winning in each of the last two seasons.
Dons in good hands with Lewington
The shock exit of Russell Martin has left many reeling with an appointment just days ahead of the new season. Martin is a highly-rated coach and the lure of the Swans was impossible and the prospect of coaching at a higher level, but it’s left the Buckinghmanshire club in a state of limbo. But that’s not to say they aren’t a bet here.
They look massively overpriced at 3.052/1 for the trip to Bolton, with the influence of that exit playing a big part on the odds.
However, the interim manager Dean Lewington is a clever move. The veteran defender will know the “Martin way” and stick to the passing principles that were so impressive from last season. The only criticisms were that they couldn’t kill teams off considering the amount of ball they had, and they had an awful knack of conceding early goals.
But their squad looks very strong and the exciting Troy Parrott has arrived from Spurs.
Bolton achieved automatic promotion from League Two and their financial positions looks a little better. Although losing new signing Xavier Amaechi to injury was a blow to preparations.
The Dons have goals in them and look worth taking a chance on considering their strong end to last term.
KEY OPTA STAT: Bolton Wanderers have never lost a home game against MK Dons in the league, winning two and drawing one of three previous meetings.
Source: BetFair Tips
