La Liga xG Tips: Sevilla and Real Sociedad to beat neighbours in Gameweek 26

“After losing the first of back-to-back games in the Basque Country, La Real return to Anoeta hoping to put their 4-0 humbling in Bilbao behind them.”

Levante v Elche
Friday, 20:00
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Levante still have some way to go before they can seriously consider survival as an option, but three points against Elche would make it seven from a possible nine and give them hope. The visitors are still averaging 2.11 xGA on their travels, and Infogol’s model anticipates a home win which could take Alessio Lisci’s team within six points of survival if other results go their way.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 7.206/1 or 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Mallorca to earn third straight home win

Mallorca v Valencia
Saturday, 13:00
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While Mallorca are looking good to stay up as things stand, another win wouldn’t go amiss after back-to-back victories in front of their own fans after a couple of impressive home displays of late. Visitors Valencia are coming off successive defeats and hold a worrying 1.82 xGA average away from the Mestalla, pointing Infogol’s model in the direction of a home victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Getafe to continue home resurgence

Getafe v Alavés
Saturday, 15:15
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Getafe’s 1.01 xGA home average has helped them pull away from danger, and they can end the weekend nine points ahead of Alavés with another win at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez on Saturday. All of Getafe’s league wins have come at home, with four of them coming without them conceding a goal, and Infogol’s model expects the hosts to continue that trend.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.208/1

Madrid to hand Rayo fifth straight loss

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid
Saturday, 17:30
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Rayo Vallecano’s four defeats on the spin have come with an average of just 0.74 xGF per game, and the prospect of facing Real Madrid won’t appeal a great deal. The league leaders have La Liga’s best away xGA record, and Infogol’s model expects Carlo Ancelotti’s team to complete a league double against their near-neighbours after a 2-1 victory at the Bernabéu in November.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Celta Vigo’s unbeaten run to end

Atlético Madrid v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 20:00
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After five games unbeaten, Celta travel to the Wanda Metropolitano hoping to find a way past what is by far the best home xGA return in the league at just 0.75 per game. Atléti won the reverse fixture on the opening week of the season, and haven’t lost to Celta since back in 2018, and things look unlikely to change as Diego Simeone’s side return to action after their midweek European exploits.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.007/1

Villarreal to continue charge up the table

Villarreal v Espanyol
Sunday, 13:00
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Three wins from the last four have left Villarreal within touching distance of the top four, and a 2.17 xGF average at home is one of the best in the division. While Espanyol haven’t been terrible on their travels when it comes to underlying numbers, Vicente Moreno’s team only have one win away from RCDE Stadium and another setback could see nagging relegation concerns continue to linger.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Sevilla to claim huge derby victory

Sevilla v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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The Seville derby has rarely had a bigger bearing on the top-four race, and both teams go into this one in fine form. With that in mind, home advantage could end up being the differentiator as Sevilla aim to go 12 unbeaten in the league and Betis chase a fifth win in six to deal a blow to their rivals’ hopes of catching league leaders Real Madrid at the summit.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.0010/1

Real Sociedad to claim derby spoils

Real Sociedad v Osasuna
Sunday, 17:30
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After losing the first of back-to-back games in the Basque Country, La Real return to Anoeta hoping to put their 4-0 humbling in Bilbao behind them. Imanol Alguacil’s side deserved the hammering they got last weekend, but a home average of just 1.06 xGA should make them tougher to beat against an Osasuna side who remain unpredictable on their travels.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

Barcelona to strengthen hold on fourth

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona’s home record looks set to make or break their top four hopes, though their away form has picked up since Xavi’s arrival as manager. Athletic have been tough to break down for the most part, but Marcelino’s men also haven’t had the best of luck in front of goal and if Barça can get their noses in front they should be able to stay there against opponents with just 10 goals on the road.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2

Cádiz to miss chance to push towards safety

Granada v Cádiz
Monday, 20:00
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Cádiz have an opportunity to close to within a point of out-of-form Granada, but Infogol’s model doesn’t see them getting the job done. While Granada have lost their last five in a row, the 3.08 xGF they generated in defeat to Villarreal suggests they still have a bit to work with going forward, and they’re backed to take the points against the only team who come close to their woeful season-long xGA average.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1