Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the top four race in La Liga heats up…
“Barcelona are unbeaten in four on the road as Xavi delivers the kind of consistency Ronald Koeman could not, and four could well become five at Mendizorrotza.”
Betis to go three unbeaten
Espanyol v Real Betis
Friday, 20:00
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Real Betis’ 4-0 victory over Alavés was extremely welcome in their pursuit of a top-four finish, though Friday’s game in Catalunya will be trickier. Espanyol are flattered by their home record, having conceded barely half what their expected numbers suggest they should have done, and Manuel Pellegrini’s visitors may have too much quality for them.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1
Levante to win second on the spin
Levante v Cádiz
Saturday, 13:00
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Levante will end this weekend bottom of the table regardless of their result against Cádiz, but Infogol’s model backs them to claim the win they need to move closer to safety. Pacha Espino rescued a point in the reverse fixture, but the visitors are out of form and have the league’s worst xGA return, making back-to-back victories for the hosts – for the first time since July 2020 – very achievable.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Mallorca to lose fourth on the spin
Villarreal v Mallorca
Saturday, 15:15
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Mallorca are drifting closer to the danger zone after three straight losses, though they have at least created chances over the period, and a trip to Villarreal won’t be easy. Unai Emery’s hosts have been on the slide themselves lately, but their 1.90 xGF average is the third-best in the league and can work to their advantage as they aim to stay in touch with the top four.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Sevilla to silence Celta
Sevilla v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 17:30
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Sevilla’s 1-0 win at Celta earlier in the season was the kind of result they have become accustomed to picking up under Julen Lopetegui, and Infogol’s model backs them to earn a fourth successive league victory over Saturday’s opponents. Celta’s points record on the road may worry the hosts, especially considering one of their four wins came at Real Betis, but their underlying numbers suggests Sevilla should still be considered favourites.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.6013/2
Atlético to stay in control of top four push
Atlético Madrid v Valencia
Saturday, 20:00
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While the battle for the third and fourth Champions League spots remains tight, games like the one against Valencia firmly fall in the ‘must win’ category for Atlético Madrid. The champions came from behind to win the corresponding fixture last season, and Infogol’s model backs them to take the points once more against opponents averaging 1.67 xGA per game away from home.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 10.5019/2
Granada to keep up solid home run
Granada v Osasuna
Sunday, 13:00
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A return of 10 points from their last four home games has been enough for Granada to push past their slow start to the season, and they will feel capable of extending their run against an unconvincing Osasuna side. Robert Moreno’s side will still need to be careful, having averaged 1.93 xGA per game at Nuevo Los Cármenes, but this is one of their more winnable home games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
Real Madrid to swat Elche to one side
Real Madrid v Elche
Sunday, 15:15
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In normal circumstances, an average of 0.50 xGF across the last two games wouldn’t have brought Elche maximum points, and they’re unlikely to be as fortunate against a Real Madrid side fresh from their Supercopa victory. Two Vinícius Júnior goals gave Carlo Ancelotti’s side the points in the reverse fixture, but Infogol’s model foresees an easier three points back at the Bernabéu.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.006/1
Rayo to lose unbeaten home record
Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 17:30
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After coming within 20 minutes of a first home defeat of the season last time out, Rayo’s impressive record may finally fall against some of La Liga’s most robust travellers. Athletic’s 1.19 xGA average is one of the best in the league, but their actual goals against column looks even more impressive, and they’re backed to earn another clean sheet to move level on points with their opponents.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.0014/1
Real Sociedad to stay in the top four mix
Real Sociedad v Getafe
Sunday, 17:30
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These are the kinds of games La Real need to win in order to go one better than last season’s fifth place finish, and Imanol Alguacil’s side earned a league double over these opponents las term. Getafe have picked up at home recently, but an away return of 0.78 xGF per game means it’s no surprise to learn they’re still yet to win in 10 attempts on their travels.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2
Barcelona to continue away resurgence
Alavés v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona are unbeaten in four on the road as Xavi delivers the kind of consistency Ronald Koeman could not, and four could well become five at Mendizorrotza. Those three draws and one win have come with an average of just 0.79 xGA, and Xavi’s men can be confident of another clean sheet against an Alavés side who are surely buckling in for yet another long relegation battle.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 8.207/1
Source: BetFair Tips
